Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 1st Oct 2013 17:18 UTC, submitted by Hiev
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless

The latest smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, for the three months to August 2013, shows Windows Phone has posted its highest ever sales share of 9.2% across the five major European markets* and is now within one percentage point of iOS in Germany. Android remains the top operating system across Europe with a 70.1% market share, but its dominant position is increasingly threatened as growth trails behind both Windows and iOS.

Good news for Microsoft - bad news for Apple. Of course, we'll have to see how the iPhone 5S and 5C affect these numbers.

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lindkvis
Member since:
2006-11-21

If Windows Phone is indeed on a sharp rising trajectory as this story suggests, then it makes the whole Nokia crash and burn and subsequent purchase by Microsoft even worse.

If Windows Phone is on the rise, and Nokia is the main source of this, then surely Nokia would see a sharp rise in its share price and fortunes?

But the Nokia shareholders won't see any of this return, because the company has been sold at possibly the worst possible time.

It is nearly impossible to envision that this whole spectacle hasn't been a deliberate attempt at robbing the Nokia shareholders of their investment in order to benefit the few.

Reply Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

That largely depends on the uncertainty over Nokia's financials moving forward being resolved, which was not the case in the eyes of the BOD.

Plus, further success warrants further investment, probably beyond the scope of what the Board was able to stomach. It is a gamble either way, and to them taking Microsoft's money now was a better gamble.

Windows Phone is doing well, but it will take time until the market share translates into an installed base and the success becomes self sustaining -- there's a good deal of pump priming to be done.

Nokia from what their proxy materials say considered all options, including terminating their existing agreement with Microsoft, going with Android, and being bought out.

Q3 and Q4 will tell us more. I expect around 9 - 9.5 million units shipped in Q3.

Reply Parent Score: 2

TBPrince Member since:
2005-07-06

Yes, worst time to sell and best time to buy for Microsoft.

It's pretty simple : shareholders wanted to cash a division they didn't think it could succeed or, probably, a division they had no will to wait for in order to show more positive signals. I don't think ALL shareholders thought that but the most influent ones for sure.

It takes time to climb from 0.something to success but they didn't want to wait, dealing with preassure on stocks and so on.

On the other side, Microsoft wanted to buy an already established and very innovative business, without bulding one themselves. They have plenty of cash to use and buying something out was the right choice.

The most important thing to consider is both Nokia and Microsoft surely had these numbers when they agreed to sell device division so they both knew that things were quickly improving.

If MS didn't act, they could be forced to pour much more cash to buy Nokia devices if they started to be successful. What it is weird is Nokia is willing to sell when its context is definitely improving. Don't forget 9.something is just an average but in many markets (and important ones) WP is already well over 10% and still improving.

Reply Parent Score: 1

glarepate Member since:
2006-01-04

If Windows Phone is indeed on a sharp rising trajectory as this story suggests, then it makes the whole Nokia crash and burn and subsequent purchase by Microsoft even worse.

If Windows Phone is on the rise, and Nokia is the main source of this, then surely Nokia would see a sharp rise in its share price and fortunes?

But the Nokia shareholders won't see any of this return, because the company has been sold at possibly the worst possible time.

It is nearly impossible to envision that this whole spectacle hasn't been a deliberate attempt at robbing the Nokia shareholders of their investment in order to benefit the few.


Nokia's projected revenue in handsets for Q3 '13 is -2% plus or minus 4%.

So the "sharp rising trajectory" still doesn't hit the make break point on profitability.

As to share price and return to stockholders it's just the opposite of what you are imagining.

1.) Nokia hasn't been sold. Just the Devices and Services (handset) division.

2.) It was the ongoing losses in D&S that was dragging down the whole company. They would have been profitable if they weren't in the handset business. And MSFT was giving them $1 billion a year on top of a $1.5 billion initial payment to partner with them so the losses were even worse than they appeared.

3.) Stock price went from the mid-$4 range to mid $6 almost as soon as the sale was announced. So shareholders have already seen a lot of return.

4.) Conspiracy theories have abounded about MSFT trying to kill Nokia and then take it over, manipulation by various groups to work against the Shining Knight of Telekom, etc. Turns out all they needed to do to succeed was stop killing themselves and sell the poison apple back to the originator of it.

Reply Parent Score: 3

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

D&S alone wasn't killing them, I'm surprised you say that when its pretty much spells out why there's an IFRS loss. Its mostly due to restructuring costs and charges related to their NAVTEQ acquisition amortized over many quarters.

What did change was their market valuation, which has always been a bit of voodoo, but probably Microsoft's convertible bonds and the looming all cash transaction helped them there.

Reply Parent Score: 2