Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 18th Dec 2013 17:24 UTC
Windows

2013 was nothing less than a blockbuster success for Windows Phone, which went from industry also-ran to the undisputed third mobile ecosystem, and is poised to challenge iPhone for the number two spot. You didn't think it could get this good? That's OK, neither did I.

Windows Phone seemingly turns a corner with every new application, small operating system update, and new Nokia Lumia. It's turning so many corners it's running in circles.

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"Growth" numbers are useless
by phoenix on Wed 18th Dec 2013 17:48 UTC
phoenix
Member since:
2005-07-11

"Growth" numbers only play favourably for the smallest players. Windows Phone shows "150% growth year over year" is meaningless. Going from 1 million to 2.5 million is not that great (150% growth) when the rest of the market is counted in the billions. Sure, Android may only have a miniscule growth percentage, but the actual numbers are orders of magnitude greater.

Having "the fastest growing" anything is nothing more than verbal diarrhea. If I make up a religion with only myself as a member, wait a few months, then get 5 of my friends to join, I can legitimately brag that I have the fastest growing religion around, with over 500% quarter-over-quarter growth! Hoowhee! Yay me!

Let's see some actual numbers for Windows Phones out in the wild, and compare those numbers to iPhones and Android phones. Then you'll see just how badly things are going for MS.

Let me know when they get over a billion phones sold.

Reply Score: 15

RE: "Growth" numbers are useless
by jello on Wed 18th Dec 2013 17:57 in reply to ""Growth" numbers are useless"
jello Member since:
2006-08-08

My thoughts exactly.

What some people don't realize is this:
If you run in circles and you don't change the course you will end up where you started ;)

Edited 2013-12-18 17:58 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 0

RE: "Growth" numbers are useless
by Nelson on Wed 18th Dec 2013 17:58 in reply to ""Growth" numbers are useless"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Installed base isn't useful for identifying an ongoing trend as it biases established players, quite obviously.

Nokia for example keeps posting great growth rates on similar volumes to other Android OEMs. LG was flat, Lenovo was 9%, Sony was 4%. Nokia was 19% at similar volumes.

If we're speaking for the purposes of identifying a trend then the numbers speak favorably for Windows Phone.

Edited 2013-12-18 18:08 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 3

The123king Member since:
2009-05-28

Exactly. This whole "Nokia and Windows Phone is dead" logic is blown way out of proportion. I'm sure, if you found some numbers somewhere, Nokia has probably sold more phones than the once-kingpin Blackberry, LG, Lenovo, ZTE and all the other small-time Android device manufacturers. They've still got a long way to go to conquer Apple, Samsung and probably HTC too though.

Reply Parent Score: 3

acobar Member since:
2005-11-15

Oh! Really, does it?

Lets create a hypothetical setting where we had the following market share on some unspecified time and then regularly update it with hypothetical constant sales by period:

Total sales / period (for example months or years)
Android Apple Microsoft
20 10 5

Total sales (accumulated) and initial set
Android Apple Microsoft
20 50 0
40 60 5
60 70 10
80 80 15
100 90 20
120 100 25

Market Share %
Android Apple Microsoft
28.57 71.43 0.00
38.10 57.14 4.76
42.86 50.00 7.14
45.71 45.71 8.57
47.62 42.86 9.52
48.98 40.82 10.20

Note how the initial (trend) growth of MS is staggering! Like people said, it derives from the fact that it did not had a market presence. Android is looking to be running out of gas even though it is at every period putting 4 times more phones than Microsoft! Who would thought!? The final situation after infinity time?

Market Share %
Android Apple Microsoft
57.14 28.57 14.29

Now, before you jump to conclusions, let me start arguing that, at least to me, the worst case scenery is to see Google achieve the same market dominance that MS once had on desktops. I would like to see them, Microsoft, succeed, first and foremost, to have a more balanced market and to improve competition, what is good for us all, and not only stockholders minority.

I also think that MS has a nice development tooling and a strong business appeal but, unluckily to them, and I am talking from a business customer perspective, their later steps on licensing generated a lot of dissatisfaction between their very own installed base. I used to like them when their only worry was to sell "good" products by fair values but it all changed under MS Ballmer umbrella. Also, their politics toward Android manufactures is despicable, to say the least. Lets hope they have the time and willingness to correct their steps. I am not standing still for that, though.

Edited 2013-12-19 16:15 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 3

glarepate Member since:
2006-01-04

Actually the installed base numbers do identify a trend.

With an installed base estimated to reach as high as 45 million by the end of this year MSFT's phone OS will have slightly more phones in use than were sold in the last 5 quarters.

The trend this indicates is that they are selling new phones to users who are just replacing an existing WP device with a new one and/or that most of the users who bought these devices in the last 3 years have moved to other platforms.

As a growth story this is interesting but not dynamic.

Reply Parent Score: 1

tylerdurden Member since:
2009-03-17

LG was flat, Lenovo was 9%, Sony was 4%. Nokia was 19% at similar volumes.


LG sold 12 million units in Q3, Sony moved 10 million xperias during that period. Nokia moved 8.8 million lumias, or 36% and 14% less than LG and Sony respectively. As usual, it depends what you mean by "similar."

From Q1 to Q2 Sony actually managed to hit the same 19% growth rate, actually surpassing Nokia in unit shipped for 2013. Does that mean Xperias are on the same boat to success as you claim Nokia to be?


In any case LG and Sony, not being the main Android OEMs, still managed to ship 150% more units on their "flat" quarter than Nokia did on their best record quarter.

Edited 2013-12-20 22:12 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 1

segedunum Member since:
2005-07-06

"Growth" numbers only play favourably for the smallest players. Windows Phone shows "150% growth year over year" is meaningless. Going from 1 million to 2.5 million is not that great (150% growth) when the rest of the market is counted in the billions. Sure, Android may only have a miniscule growth percentage, but the actual numbers are orders of magnitude greater.

Having "the fastest growing" anything is nothing more than verbal diarrhea.

Indeed. They do this every single time and it's the same well worked, well worn formula because it's all they have. They like to try and argue 'trends' to get people imagining what Windows Phone will do in the future.

The part where Thurrott claims that Windows Phone is poised to challenge the iPhone on that basis was hilarious when in reality the iPhone has hit a ceiling with their limited supply and Android is the one taking some of its market share.

Edited 2013-12-19 20:25 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Paul Thurrots unfounded assertion is incorrect because your unfounded assertion is. Can't make this stuff up.

Reply Parent Score: 3