Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 18th Dec 2013 17:24 UTC
Windows

2013 was nothing less than a blockbuster success for Windows Phone, which went from industry also-ran to the undisputed third mobile ecosystem, and is poised to challenge iPhone for the number two spot. You didn't think it could get this good? That's OK, neither did I.

Windows Phone seemingly turns a corner with every new application, small operating system update, and new Nokia Lumia. It's turning so many corners it's running in circles.

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Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29

No. How about we don't create a hypothetical and actually use real numbers from real financials of the companies I mention. Those were their growth rates.

People trot out the "from a low base" argument which is probably because its the last leg they have to stand on.

What they leave out is that Nokia had similar volumes to all of these OEMs individually, but is still growing more strongly. LG especially was flat QoQ and Sony had anemic growth.

I will also point out that Nokia had strong 19% sequential growth during what traditionally is their slowest quarter, and Q4s growth trajectory could be even higher.

I understand fully that the 150% YoY growth comes from a low base initially, but that's precisely why o eont cite them (seriously, look at my comment history) and instead cite Nokia's volume shipments compared to the other Android OEMs.

Reply Parent Score: 3

acobar Member since:
2005-11-15

And where are we going to get the real numbers from? Apple, Microsoft, Samsung and all others use "shipment", "produced" or "available to customer purchase" instead of really "sold to final customers" numbers, what is understandable from strategy / tracking POV. The problem is that we only get the real results when they have to make available their balance.

Also note that my main argument is that at any period what counts is the proportion of each shipment and not what it was before, like yourself asked for. The other things are not "for real" as market is something that keeps changing all the time.

Anyway, what is really important to know is who can keep timely shipping improved and desired devices to an ever evolving market, and to this point this important "index" is not all set yet but, and I guess you agree, Google has showed an impressive track to now.

Edited:

Ops, my bad, looks like on Android case we can get numbers of "activated" devices directly from Google. Forgive my naiveness on this case.

Edited 2013-12-19 17:18 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

I think its hard to pin a specific down to the last phone number on actual end user sales (because OEMs don't control the retail experience and aren't tracking phones moving over sales counters).

What can give at least some insight is the inventory levels that the companies maintain, which is something that is usually detailed in financial reports. Channel stuffing as its called generally leads to a dip the following quarter as retailers cut back on purchases.

At least in Nokia's case, the shipment numbers keep increasing at a pretty good rate.

Reply Parent Score: 3

segedunum Member since:
2005-07-06

People trot out the "from a low base" argument which is probably because its the last leg they have to stand on.

Microsoft has never had more than around 3% market share for Windows Phone, or whatever its various incarnations were called at various times.

When figures like 50%, 100%, or 150% growth are trotted out that's the only leg 'they' have to stand on because it's pure number play.

What they leave out is that Nokia had similar volumes to all of these OEMs individually

Of course you'll say that, and insert Nokia for Windows Phone and vice versa where it suits you.

.....and instead cite Nokia's volume shipments compared to the other Android OEMs.

....and you're doing it again. This is about Windows Phone.

Android has the benefit of much greater supply and suppliers, which is why Android has such a large market share. Microsoft is not going to get anywhere by trying to make Nokia their personal 'iPhone' division and throwing cheap phones at marginal markets to try and boost their sales numbers and apparent growth.

I predict in a few months we'll see a several hundred million dollar writedown and a whole bunch of losses, because that is all that can be happening here. If you have lower volumes you need higher margins. If you have higher volumes then you might be able to make selling phones in Mexico profitable. Otherwise, it's creative accounting.

Edited 2013-12-19 20:52 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

....and you're doing it again. This is about Windows Phone.

Android has the benefit of much greater supply and suppliers, which is why Android has such a large market share. Microsoft is not going to get anywhere by trying to make Nokia their personal 'iPhone' division and throwing cheap phones at marginal markets to try and boost their sales numbers and apparent growth.


Actually they're going to get very far, and already are seeing great traction at those price points.

Furthermore, I think its a bit myopic to assume that Nokia will be the single OEM moving forward, and that another OEM or collection of OEMs wont come in to add significant volumes.

There are rumors of Microsoft partnering with regional OEMs to release WP devices, couple that with free licenses for the OS and you have an OS which performs better than Android on lower end hardware, and that is as cheap, or cheaper (due to legal uncertainty surrounding Android).


I predict in a few months we'll see a several hundred million dollar writedown and a whole bunch of losses, because that is all that can be happening here. If you have lower volumes you need higher margins. If you have higher volumes then you might be able to make selling phones in Mexico profitable. Otherwise, it's creative accounting.


Its fascinating to see you have such a primitive understanding of how things work, but sure, ill take you up on that bet. There wont be a Nokia/WP related write down. That's absurd.

Reply Parent Score: 3