Linked by Thom Holwerda on Sat 4th Feb 2006 18:50 UTC
Windows Microsoft executives already are counting their Vista chickens before the next-generation Windows release has hatched. A Microsoft vice president on Feb. 1 detailed for attendees of the Merrill Lynch IT Services & Software Conference Microsoft's reasons for its high expectations for Vista, the release of Windows client due to ship in the latter half of this year. Microsoft expects 200 million new PCs to ship with Vista preloaded in the first 24 months that the operating system is available, said Michael Sievert, corporate vice president, Windows Product Management & Marketing.
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History says it will be a zero sum
by theGrump on Sat 4th Feb 2006 19:43 UTC
theGrump
Member since:
2005-11-11

some trends:

- fewer people are engaging in 'suggested' upgrades.

- pc sales (forced upgrade cycle) is slowing - game consoles and 'fast enough' hardware are denting the upgrade trend.

- people are justifiably afraid of running new microsoft code, particularly businesses

- there are few real new features that definitively suggest a necessary upgrade

- because so many people are still on old versions of windows, microsoft will be unable to 'shut off' back support.

- MSFT is already priced for total ownership of the OS market

Reply Score: 5

Dark_Knight Member since:
2005-07-10

"fewer people are engaging in 'suggested' upgrades."

Actually most consumers using Windows XP that haven't migrated to Linux or OSX will most likely upgrade. This is because of what I see as denial by end users who believe that Microsoft can be trusted to release a secure OS.

"- pc sales (forced upgrade cycle) is slowing - game consoles and 'fast enough' hardware are denting the upgrade trend."

What Microsoft is relying on is Intel and AMD yet again switching their processor socket design which if you want to use it means you're upgrading more than your CPU. Though businesses are not like teenagers who want the latest and greatest hardware. So Microsoft will have a difficult time convincing them to upgrade.

"people are justifiably afraid of running new microsoft code, particularly businesses."

I agree. Unless you're someone that had his/her head stuck in the sand for the past few years it's apparent there have been some very costly issues for consumers who use Windows. This is really unfortunate because with the associated price tag of Windows. Microsoft should be doing more to ensure security and piece of mind are at the top of their list over ease of use and how much money can be made.

"there are few real new features that definitively suggest a necessary upgrade"

They announced WinFS as being one of the biggest reasons users should upgrade to Windows Vista though now we hear Microsoft is dropping WinFS from Vista.

"because so many people are still on old versions of windows, microsoft will be unable to 'shut off' back support."

Dissagree with this comment. Microsoft especially with Windows XP has made every attempt to support older software and hardware. Though it's true with the hardware requirements for Vista being reported that it appears less likely Vista will have as wide legacy hardware support as Linux distributions.

"MSFT is already priced for total ownership of the OS market"

If you compare what it cost to buy a retail version of SUSE Linux/NLD from Novell compared to buying Windows XP and additional security software it's apparent why companies see Linux as having lower TCO. Also check around with distributors and notice how much lower the cost is for systems with either Linux installed or simply no OS. Windows does increase the over all cost of a system purchase.

Edited 2006-02-04 21:05

Reply Parent Score: 5

theGrump Member since:
2005-11-11

>> Actually most consumers using Windows XP that haven't migrated to Linux or OSX will most likely upgrade.

that does not explain the legions of win98 and win2k users. i stand by my original point, and it also buttresses my point about support. microsoft had to support win2k far longer than they planned - the users (mostly business users) simply would not budge (and why should they?)

>> If you compare what it cost to buy a retail version of SUSE Linux/NLD from Novell compared to buying Windows XP


i was referring to the stock price (hence why i stated MSFT), and i stand by my original point that the stock already has total OS dominance priced into it.

Reply Parent Score: 2

Sodapop Member since:
2005-07-06

Hey man, I agree with ya bro ;) But, Microsoft CAN shut off back support by cutting security patches which will force you to upgrade.

Reply Parent Score: 1