Apple’s Chief Financial Officer Fred Anderson said the company’s aim is to expand its share of the computer market. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Technology Symposium, Anderson said a “good intermediate” goal would be to reach 5% marketshare from 3% today (some statistic companies actually put Apple between 2,2% and 2,6%). Commentary: Very nice to see Apple understand the real problem here, which is its declining market share (from about 12% some years ago), which with time will affect the number of active developers. Without developers there are no apps, and without apps there is no platform. Apple will have to expand its market share and save the platform, even if they have to literally… give away computers at some point (or to become seriously competitive to the PC, price-wise) in order to succeed to this goal.
I think you nailed it:
” We’re not talking about first-time computers users. We’re talking about people that have had a bad experience with windows, and are not limiting themselves to the 599 walmart PC.”
A lot of people just dont understand this. No matter how much you know, how much of an expert you are, or how long you’ve been using windows. There is a huge amount of time spent fixing the damned thing. Its not little things here and there, its long amounts of time to get one thing working right.
Never again, I dont want to spend more then 2 hours setting up a new computer. Though I should really invest time in reading about some power user tools and hacks for os X, since im not used to the platform yet.
Video editing doesn’t interest me, so I will not comment on the relative merits of Sony’s bundled software vs. Apple’s.
I WILL remark that what I am reading sounds like wishful thinking: Show the Windows user how good the Mac is, and they will convert. Convince the Windows user that the Mac means lower maintenance, and they will be saved.
I wonder about the news that spawned this discussion: Apple realizes that they need more market share. I suspect Apple has known this for a while. The experiments with the clones years ago indicates some awareness, so does the interminable Switch campaign.
The pro Apple arguments I read here date back to the BBS days, but has market share increased? Just when is this turn around going to happen?
I hope Apple can turn it around. I would like to see some competition for Microsoft on the desktop, but I am not seeing it. Instead, since the release of OS/X we have seen the accelerated loss of the school market, the loss of Quark, and the pushing out of several other companies by all the bundled i-apps. As one who is gifted with infallible future vision, I predict the day is coming, it is not far off, when even Adobe asks, “why bother?”
I have seen these arguments before, “our OS is superior, therefore we will prevail,” back in the early 80s, when I was a TRS-80 user. I confess to making the same ones against MS-DOS machines. They are the arguments of a dying brand.
Here’s hoping I’m wrong.
> ($8 billion – $5.7 billion) / ($250 per person – $118 development cost) = 17.4 million people
This is truly amazing math. It teaches me that development cost is always $118 no matter how many copies are sold.
$118 * 17.4 million = $2,053,200,000
Apple should be more careful about how much money they spend on development.
Bascule: So let’s make some very brash and stupid assumptions to see if we can make this business model you’re proposing work in a magical fantasy land.
I would like to take this time to thank you for completely misunderstanding my entire post. I didn’t say “fuck with the hardware business”. If Apple drops hardware immediately, I wouldn’t think they would survive it. Remember allowing clones doesn’t mean getting rid of hardware business. Palm still have a hardware business no?
Besides, I also think that making a x86 version, shrink wrap and all, and compete head on with Windows is stupid.
mainlymac: Clones won’t work because Apple tried that and couldn’t keep up with the licensees.
The reason why Apple made a huge fool out of themselvs with the clones was because they tried competing against them. Instead, they should have done what Palm did. Handspring for super cheap, Sony for super expensive.
It doesn’t mean that the idea itself was stupid. The way Apple implemented it was very stupid. Apple didn’t provide any reason to pick their expensive and outdated hardware or the clones cheap and up to date hardware. However, if they allow clones again, I’m sure Jobs would be smart enough to imitate Sony – making an exclusive product in a niche market.
mainlymac: or says that they should immediately start competing with Subaru, Hyandai, or Toyota if they wish to have a future.
They are and should with Toyota, which is transforming itself into a luxury car maker (just like merc decades ago). besides, the car market is extremely different from the computer market. While a Merc may be more expensive than a Hyundai, it is in every way much better. Macs on the other hand are better in few ways.
And besides, Mercs and Hyundais can drive on the same road. Macs and PCs can’t. If Apple increases the market share of Mac OS while still produces hardware for a niche exclusive market, I don’t see what’s so wrong. Yes, it would be harder than siting around waiting for their market size to reach a state where Macs don’t matter anymore..
The switch to x86 killed Be and the BeOS
What killed Be and the BeOS was their completely lack of sense for marketing and management. Not x86. If anything, x86 actually leghten their life-span. From the BeBox to the eVilla, Be never succeed in making a profit, I don’t think we should use Be as a benchmark.
Besides, Be wanted to challege Microsoft, or at least steal enough market to become profitable. It had no interest of supplying a niche, no less understood what a niche is in the first place. It is hard to see Apple shriveling up and die with x86, unless they take the same route as Be.
Bascule: IBM (PPC970 and beyond)
Yes… if there was any proof that it would be as fast, or anywhere near the performance of a x86 processor then.
Eugenia: Platforms need software, cars only need gas.
Most of them need roads to drive on too.
Darius: So all the Mac zealots who want to compare Macs to PCs like $100,000 luxury cars to Toyotas can kiss my ass.
/me imagines appleforever kissing Darius ass…
Jay: They did that and lost money faster than they could count it.
They lost money on everything they did back then. Mismanagement.
Anonymous: Loki are the perfect example of this.
If all their employees records are anything to go by with, Loki died because of a greddy boss. In addition to that, Loki wasn’t all that good in their products. Sure, their products are great – but 6-8 months after their Windows release? After buying the Windows version, unless I’m a Linux fanatic, why should I buy Loki’s version?
Dimebag: Every time I read a debate on Mac vs PC, there’s always a dumbass who will say that stupid remark. HELLO!! Just plug your 3 button wheelmouse in the mac and USE IT !!
What happen if you are using a laptop?
Anyways, each time I see this stupid remark, I know it’s coming from a guy who never used a laptop on the go before.
anon: Think about all potential customers Apple then would have.
Cheap PC users that wanna run away from the evil empire…. wow, that’s a lot of market.
John: Thus both making money, adding value to Apple, and increase market share.
And this workstation market is such a large market in comparison with PCs? Heck, Mac have a bigger market than that.
Anonymous: If the major games companies are uninterested in delivering for Linux, why should they licence them early.
Whih is the problem of Loki itself. Transgaming took 4 weeks to port The Sims. Loki takes an average of 6 months for their games. Could they have fixed that? Yes. So, in that case, would this proof that Linux is unprofitable? ABSOLUTELY NOT.
Michael: And they buy it because of emotional insecurity for the most part, just like people buy luxury cars so they can feel better about themselves.
LOL. If I would to buy a Merc (or rather, if I had that kind of money, a VW New Bettle), it wouldn’t be for emotional insecurity. It is for style and driving pleasure. Why not you go to a dealership all dressed up, pretending to be some rich bloke and test drive these cars. You would be mad if you said that cheap Nissan is a better drive than a brand new Lotus…..
Michael: Who cares about making their own DVD’s?
Microsoft is making sure by time Longhorn, there would be people who cares about making their own DVDs.
Peter Besenbruch: Where is this market share going to come from?
Corporate market that don’t care how nice the OS feels, but how much they can get done with so little money.
It would be interesting to see how many people really make their own movie DVD’s.
I would look at the DVD burner as a data drive, but the DVD burner market has been raft with standards battles for the past few years.
In many ways, having a DVD burner is a pointless thing unless you are making movies or backing up lots of data that doesn’t fit well on CDROM.
I doubt any significant portion of the PC market even has a DVD burner.
And by the time Longhorn rolls into stores, there will so much DRM in the Microsoft OS that any writable/removable media will be too painful to use. All the geeks will have moved to Linux as Apple is putting DRM into OS X 10.3.
Speaking just for today, I think DVD burners / Superdrive is marketing hype. It doesn’t address any pervasive need.
Video editing doesn’t interest me, so I will not comment on the relative merits of Sony’s bundled software vs. Apple’s.
You’re imposing your preferences again on the whole world. My point was there are people who care about video editing, that’s where the market share gains can come from.
I WILL remark that what I am reading sounds like wishful thinking: Show the Windows user how good the Mac is, and they will convert. Convince the Windows user that the Mac means lower maintenance, and they will be saved.
This is actually happening. People are switching. The only question is whether it is happening to a sufficient degree to keep apple alive. Hey, I am not saying Apple will survive. They may, they may not. Right now, though, they aren’t remotely near death. Not by a long shot.
. . .but has market share increased? Just when is this turn around going to happen? . . . Instead, since the release of OS/X we have seen the accelerated loss of the school market, the loss of Quark . . .
Actually, there has been a gain in apple share I believe recently (though very slight). The fact that share has held steady or slightly increased recently — with the edu market share losses and recession in pro sales (publishing, quark, etc) — means that apple is actually gaining share in the consumer segment. Which is exactly what the switch campaign and retail stores are all abou.
Here’s how big gains in apple share could readily happen.
First, Linux takes over a significant percentage of govt, schools, companies, small business. And even some desktop users like those buying lindows PCs that just want to do the basics (web, email, etc). This could happen in the next few years. Then there’s not just one choice (windows), with everything else vaguely and possibly “incompatible.” There’s multiple choices.
Second, for consumers at least, PCs move out of the DIY realm, ALL THE WAY. I think in the future, people will buy a box for the functions. They won’t be buying a harddrive, an OS, multiple applications from multiple venders and then trying to assemble it all themselves. Computers will be like cars – you buy it with the AC, stereo, nav sys. etc. installed. It works better and who wants to have to make 10 different buying decisions. Just buy the box and do the functions (video and photo editing, web, email, music jukebox, etc.) Apple is the only computer company — THE ONLY ONE — offering this. And I think that’s where the future is.
I tried Linux two years ago, and again last fall. Last fall, I had some success in getting a working system going, and having it function both as SAMBA client and server. I eventually took Linux off of two machines. It was too slow and sometimes too unstable. Then there was the software issue. I have years of data, much of it in formats at best imperfectly understood by Linux programs.
Any organization that changes OS will run into that problem, but Microsoft’s Office may make switching possible, except that switch is a two edged sword. A school that wants to save money will dump a more expensive system of Macs for a cheaper Windows setup. I can see them dumping Windows for Linux in a couple of years for the same reason, provided they can move their data.
What I am NOT seeing is how one goes from Linux to Mac when the primary motivation to switch has been cost? I understand Apple packs a lot of function into a computer, but in an office situation, IT folks would just as soon do without the functions the i-apps offer. Do you see Apple reducing price (wouldn’t THAT be nice)?
As for the DIY stuff, the overwhelming majority of Windows users never open their box (not even to clean it), and they never have. There are a few weird folks like myself that ask for certain kinds of RAM for our new motherboards, but if you asked Joe User what sort of graphics he or she runs, all you will get is a blank stare.
When it comes to the car analogy, I think it fails for two reasons. First, people buy computers to do certain tasks. Office machines need to run productivity software, and will probably never do 3d gaming, movie editing, or the like. In short, everything Apple offers is a bit of a negative in any office environment. The home is a bit different, and here Apple may have a chance to hang on — for a while.
Second, computers are not cars. As long as parts are available, one can have boutique brands. All cars use gas and oil. For a healthy computer market, ultimately one has to have software. To mangle the analogy, gas and oil is the car’s “software.” Alternative fuels are certainly possible, but unless widely available, these alternatives will never achieve significant market share.
For my wife, most of the medical software for her Palm can only be installed from Windows. For my astronomy hobby, even Linux has better software than the Mac. For my work as a priest, key works are only available for Windows. For my kids, I value Encarta (yes, I know it’s also available online, but the Windows version is better, faster, and advertising free), plus a range of other software they have used over the years. It used to be that much of what was available for Windows was also available for the Mac, but no longer. My son like games. Windows is a viable game platform, the Mac is not.
I’ll close with the following prediction: If Linux gets good enough for the masses, those looking for a cheaper alternative, or a Windows alternative, will go there, not to the Mac. The effect of Linux on Mac market share can only get increasingly negative as time passes, and Linux improves.
Peter –
Apple is not going to have many businesses, schools or govts. The future of the mac is high end consumer, small (very small) business, professionals, creative pros. Is that a big enough market for apple to survive. Yes I think so, but nobody knows for sure.
you say, “The effect of Linux on Mac market share can only get increasingly negative as time passes, and Linux improves.”
Linux is a LOOOONG way from surpassing the mac in out of the box ease of use and functionality for normal people. Long before Linux matches the mac, it will match windows. In some corp, edu, govt uses, linux is just a thread away from matching windows/office (enough). So the danger to windows (on the desktop) from Linux is much more immediate at a minimum. Windows will be totally savaged (94 percent share to 50 or less) before Linux even begins to approach the mac (with the iApps, .Mac). Even then, Linux can’t match the hardware/software integration which only apple currently provides (exluding sun, sgi, etc).
All the software for Linux that will then exist, will be runnable on the mac with little to no modification.
So look at the probable sequence of events, Peter. Apple remains protected from Linux (due to superiority on ease of use and functionality) until AFTER linux surpasses or takes a major, huge bite out of windows. And at the point it’s overtaken windows, but not yet the mac in terms of ease of use and functionality, the main negative to owning a mac that you identify (lack of certain software) is TOTALLY gone.
Then, we have lots of the world using linux because it’s “good enough” and cheaper — just like now with windows — and some smallish segment using the mac because it’s better (or at least better for them).
Apple don’t die until linux is as good. At which point I don’t even care because then I would prefer Linux, or it would not make a difference to me. I have no problem with a linux-world where linux is as good or better than the mac on ease of use, functionality and glitch-free operation.
If linux overtakes the PC world, it can only overtake the mac also, I think, if some company (or more than one) starts making a distro tailored to their own hardware, selects and tweaks the apps as necessary for a consistent user experience and offers the whole thing out of the box. And builds a brand, a name, a reputation for ease of use, quality and (dare I say) innovation.
Wait a minute, this is exactly what apple is doing. Taking an open source unix-based OS, open-sourced or available-for-purchase software (e.g., soundjam) and then packaging it all in one big usable box.
So nobody overtakes apple without playing apple’s own game. Sure, this could and should happen. But apple has a long start and long experience and a market name and reputation for what newcomers will be trying to do. It should do well for a long time to come in such a situation, although things can always be screwed up by any company.
Don’t worry, I’m sure they are doing this with only the best intentions!!!
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/4/29519.html
Wait until OS X 10.3 with DRM. Betrayal is a tough thing for true believers.
Who is leading the way, hmmm? Apple and the MPEG4 people have no choice but to incorporate DRM or face total loss of the market to WM9, you know this as well as I do.
By the way, I do truly believe apple makes by far the best computers, OS, apps, online service all integrated together nicely. Because it’s true, and obvious. PC people just can’t accept it. It’s too painful.
IMHO, here’s how the demographic breaks down:
Apple Users: These are people that have some work in mind for their computer to do. They appreciate that their Macs don’t get in the way and perform their assigned tasks “smugly” to borrow a phrase from Douglas Adams. These are often people for whom the ultimate computer is a secretary (who can use any sort of computer they want).
PC Users: These people often have some work in mind, but often think that they can build a better system themselves than PC makers. Many of these systems are the exotic sportscars of the computer world. They have blistering performance, but they spend 3 hours in the shop for every hour on the road. This group breaks down into two sets: One is often frustrated because they really do have work to do and the other seems quite happy to constantly disassemble and reassemble their hardware like hot-rod enthusiasts of old.
Linux Users: These people do not appear to have any work in mind, since they share all of the hardware traits of the PC Users, and they also enjoy tinkering with a software environment that is never completed, and must be constantly updated.
For myself, I’m a former NeXT worshipper who has (now) moved to Apple because:
– They have resurrected most of the glorious NeXT software technology (though I miss Display Postscript)
– They are moving away from OS 9 and towards OS X
– Their laptops are generally smaller and less power hungry than PCs
– They are simply less common than PCs (at least for the moment)
I use PCs at work, and they are OK, as long as there’s someone else to change their oil once a month and put the wheels back on when they fall off.
I don’t get the hostility of the discussions of Apple vs. PC. Gee, if you have a PC and you are happy, just be happy. If you have a Mac and you are in ecstasy, great. Enjoy your platform and shuddup already. Why do people confuse this stuff with religion? These things are only tools, and when’s the last time you read a long debate about the relative merits of screwdrivers and hammers and which one is the ultimate tool?
“Wait until OS X 10.3 with DRM. Betrayal is a tough thing for true believers”
LMFAO, god you PC Fanboys really are desperate, aren’t you?
Did you even read the freakin’ article, you moron?
You know what’s amazing to me, is that when you read an article that shows that Microsoft is recording and sending back to itself a log OF EVERY PROGRAM YOU HAVE ON YOUR PC, do you get angry at Microsoft?
No, you say “Wait until OS X 10.3 with DRM. Betrayal is a tough thing for true believers”.
Do you PC Fanboys have any spine whatsoever?