“As the managing director of an Internet company people often (wrongly) assume that I’m an expert about everything to do with the Internet. So it is that I’m often asked whether Google is worth its currently high share price. I try to be diplomatic in my response, and point out that I’m neither a stockbroker nor an accountant, so what do I know? continue reading.”
Google – Tomorrow The World
About The Author
Ex-programmer, ex-editor in chief at OSNews.com, now a visual artist/filmmaker.
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2006-01-13 7:27 pmSmartpatrol
I have to agree, Google is good at what they do for sure but lack any tangible products. Reminds me alot of Excite and @Home. <Pop>
2006-01-13 8:14 pmtheGrump
to be certain, i by no means am saying google will go out of business, stop being profitable, etc.,. because really none of this has anything to do with how bubbles start and end.
bubbles are about psychology and expectations. at some point the expectations for google will go beyond their ability to deliver, and once that happens, the stock will likely get back at least to the $40 billion market cap range, which is still very high and aggresive even given their successes.
i am not picking on GOOG alone – YHOO and many other stocks in this sector are drafting in GOOG’s wake and likewise will correct.
2006-01-13 8:14 pmkonfoo
Nod. Anyone who comes up with the word ‘Googlation’ is not qualified to make any stock and market predictions. Fantasy, maybe. And even that is a stretch.
I find it amusing that the predictions are along the lines of some all-encompassing ‘take over the world’ fantasy. Every corporation has expertees in a finite set of fields. Google is not all-powerful, and you don’t just ‘cross-pollinate’ to other sectors by merit of having money in the bank and an over-inflated stock price.
It’s either sarcasm or, hello big brother. Granted it’s an opt-in big brother for now, but I don’t think I’d want Google staring over my shoulder either, just on principle.
If you’re sad that you didn’t get in before it hit the insane price it’s at now, why not do some real speculating and short it?
What goes up, must go down…
2006-01-14 5:32 amtheGrump
shorting is extremely dangerous
if you must do so, try first with some imaginary money
bubbles unfortunately continue to live and grow long after all thinking people have acknowledged them
2006-01-14 9:38 amalcibiades
Yes, shorting a mania is very dangerous indeed. The problem is, its at 500, which you think insane, and it may be, so you short it.
It can go to 50 in 18 months, but it wipes you out by going to 1,000 on the way there.
A safer way (though in some respects only) is to look at the long term puts on CBS Marketwatch’s options page. Your entire bet is at risk with them, but that is all that is at risk, and you can keep the amount small. And get out any time.
This is not investment advice.
I stopped trying to be an expert on Google stock prices by taking a very small long position on it’s stock. So I don’t care about the general fluctuations of the price. If it goes up 100, down 100, I’ll be fine.
…if its a bubble, it already is.
the bubble in GOOG has little to do with technology – bubbles rarely have anything to do with the intrinsic value or technology that is being pursued.
all of the classic signs of a bubble – ridiculous analyst predictions, journalists seriously discussing impossible extensions of the firm’s power and scope, etc are all in place here. its almost a full replay of 2000. and don’t tell me that unlike 2000, google is “for real” – many of the firms from the first bubble era continue to thrive and are certainly “real” (ebay, yahoo, amazon).
this is a classic bubble and will end like a classic bubble.