In the last few weeks, the tech industry has been buzzing with speculation that Microsoft’s next OS release, Longhorn, will not be ready for its planned 2006 unveiling. If the OS is put off until 2007, some competitors could win more profits, but many analysts say that software and hardware partners will face the most serious challenges and could end up losing more than they anticipated.
Longhorn Delayed Again – Who Wins?
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Eugenia Loli
Ex-programmer, ex-editor in chief at OSNews.com, now a visual artist/filmmaker.
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Is this speculation or is their actually facts here?
A bunch of speculation of course, after all no one knows what will happen if Microsoft decides to close the shop or decides to delay Longhorn another 2 years, so and again, nothing to see, just a bunch of speculation, please move along.
I think it’s just speculations, have’nt been able to find facts. Also found more about this here: http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_title=Longhorn_Delayed_…
But i would’nt be shocked if this was a fact.
http://bitsofnews.com
Didn’t we just have an article stating how small biz isn’t exactly sprinting to linux. I think Didio’s speculation in this reguard is silly. This isn’t a flame on linux, I run ubuntu on my desktop. But there are many who still have no clue there are options out there at all and will wait patiently forever for m$ new baby.
“It would be fair to say no one has ever undertaken software change as big as this before.”
Well we know for sure WinFS will most likely not be part of Longhorn at the first shipping.The proposed LUA is still as all things from MS that is presented factual fiction till proven otherwise.
Even if Microsoft would delay the release of Longhorn for another 5 years this still wouldn’t have much impact,because the ones who have the biggest hardware share (assembled PC’s) have contracts with MS,to bundle XP,and most end-users
think windows is the only OS.
Longhorn will not change how people develop apps.
Longhorn will not cause all Windows developers (those left) to do ground-up rewrites of their products.
Longhorn will not change the way people use their computers.
Longhorn will not introduce features not available in other OSs.
Longhorn will go to market with security issues.
Longhorn will not allow applications to do things people demand today but are unable to accomplish.
Longhorn is an update to Windows. That is it.
People will get it when they buy new PCs. Some will upgrade of their own will, but most won’t care.
Microsoft will release something in 2006. If its just XP with some eyecandy, that is what it will be.
MS’s balance sheet and stock performance (or should I say nonperformance) will not permit them to wait for the perfect codebase. Thjey need to dump something on the market.
They are creating to much speculation about it, it is dangerous people may get tired or get dissapointed after the release “we were waithing all this years for this”.
Perhaps the UNIX and Linux desktops along with Mac OS X are evolving fast enough that Microsoft can’t pin down what Longhorn should be. They can’t figure out how to dominate these competitors that are free of charge, yet are becoming as good as Windows and Office can be.
Given the cheaper-is-better philosophy of computing history, Microsoft likely won’t be #1 by the end of the decade.
The question would be more like how long can everything,software developments and new developed hardware run on windows (technically )?
Perhaps the UNIX and Linux desktops along with Mac OS X are evolving fast enough that Microsoft can’t pin down what Longhorn should be.
That’s another possibility.
I’m happy. I’m not waiting for Longhorn, and I don’t care when it will comes out. There is not a thing that could drag me out of my *NIX love. Besides, Longhorn is still a vapor, so we should not speculate too much about it. 😉
But isn’t it basically the norm for the execs to keep pushing for features, meanwhile the actual developers are just trying to make the thing stable and make their deadline which of course they can’t because tommorrow there will be yet another feature to put in or change to be made…isn’t that basically how it works in software development, especially when you work for somebody like Gates?
Tes the above message has a bunch of typos 😀
it’s “Linux can’t replace…” and “…let us eat some cookeis…”
and other typos I don’t care to fix
Microsoft monopoly we would have a Redhat/Novel/Whatever monopoly so let us get eat some cookies and smoke a cigar… and wait for the day computing gets decent.
No, there can not a Redhat/Novel/Whatever monopoly. Why? Simple, have you ever heard about, let say, WhiteBox? If you dislike where your distribution is going, fork it or make your own. BTW: calling names don’t make arguments, you know. If you call someone zealot, it don’t make your argument stronger, it’s just makes you a keyboard warior, who sits in a dark corner with a computer and type curses.
Perhaps the UNIX and Linux desktops along with Mac OS X are evolving fast enough that Microsoft can’t pin down what Longhorn should be.
Problem is XP is good enough for most users. Microsoft is going to have a tough time trying to sell Longhorn unless they really pack it with features and then throw in the kitchen sink for good measure.
I’d much rather see them push it out too soon like they did XP, have rediculous bugs and actually lose stability that they had in their previous release. The number of people who will immediately upgrade and get really mad at it will be high, just like XP. Except this time, alternatives will be more stable than they were in 2001, have more press than in 2001, and already have more marketshare then they did in 2001.
Waiting could really help Microsoft. Delays are less likely to lose them customers then bad releases. So I’d much rather see a bad release shoved out the door early than a good one a year later…
Besides, I’ll be graduated by the time they release if they delay again; and then my $130 a year Microsoft tax that my CS department charges me will have been in vain as all the software I will have gotten will be the .Net devel studio!
I’d say your facts mostly check out. I think Mac has a much higher linux share in the US at least, simply due to their high notebook percentage (estimated at 6%).
“Waiting could really help Microsoft. Delays are less likely to lose them customers then bad releases. So I’d much rather see a bad release shoved out the door early than a good one a year later…
Besides, I’ll be graduated by the time they release if they delay again; and then my $130 a year Microsoft tax that my CS department charges me will have been in vain as all the software I will have gotten will be the .Net devel studio!”
Nice juxtaposition there. You want MS to do badly because your a linux fanboy. However at the same time you use .NET Developer Studio, meaning you run Windows, and you want
MORE MS software on the cheap.
Interesting…
win2k is also good enough for most users…yet ms menaged to sell xp…
from what I understood from Chris’s post, he is forced to pay $130 per year by his college for the privilage of using the Microsoft software.
What was your point ?
I am excited in the sense I want to see what Longhorn is caoable of. Already DirectX10 or WGF 2.0 is supposed to be integrated into the OS. And that is good news for a lot of gaming and 3d graphics folk who use the Windows platform extensively because the immense overhead given the current XP DirectX driver model will not be there. And ATI is working with M$ to create a close knit API for graphics programming in WGF 2.0 and that is even more great news. There is going to be a major architectural shift to a unified shader model and none of todays cards support that. Longhorn will be big, it will just be the same situation all over again. XP > OS X in terms of market use. Longhorn > OS X all over again. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be delays in releasing Longhor, possibly till 2007 IMO and by that time we will prob have had SP3 for XP and a host of other Longhornlike techs for XP users. When Longhorn comes out it could be that it is buggy, but M$ will take that time of slow transition and improve the heck out of the OS and a lot of application writers will have Longhorn compatible apps written by then and people will start moving to Longhorn. There is no way OS X will be as big as Longhorn or even XP. Sad but true.
MS could,at any time, to release a so called new OS , some XP improved , whatever and sell it to the masses as the new kid on the block. Win Me comes to mind.
It depends a lot what others will do. It depends because marketing can play a big role here. I would like to see Novell doing an aggresive campaign promoting their linux. They have some money. But we will see.However,even the delay won’t be a surprise anymore.
Myself I just turned my 2003 server into a workstation (tips here on OSNews) and it works great,the best Windows I ever tried.
My workhorse,however, is still my Slackbox which I plan to upgrade pretty soon. But yes,this will come later.
He probably pays that to get the MSDN Academic Alliance which is free download of all microsoft os’s and development software which is actually kinda nice.
blah blah, Dell predicts in 4 years its sales will be about 80 billion dollars in revenue, and those sales are NOT linux, it’s longhorn and windows server. So please let’s be real. Linux and the mac will never reach the same dominant status as Microsoft.
Now I am confused….
He probably pays that to get the MSDN Academic Alliance which is free download of all microsoft os’s and development software which is actually kinda nice.
He pays for a FREE download ?
I know people go to college to LEARN, but making them pay to get something for free, thats nice, how do I get started in that business ?
🙂
look here boy..
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/products/compare.aspx/precn_n?c=us&…
2006 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
Timeover, you are my hero! Keep making me laugh. Never go away.
I don’t see how linux is going to replace windows on the desktop. More like limp beside it. I’ve seen this since ’98 and it’s still unchanged. Windows is a moving target which will keep linux trailing.
Longhorn will stop being vaporware the day it will be available on the shelves.
Until then, it is just PR, and PR, and PR, and even more PR.
Remember Cairo!
Timeover? is that with me? mt nick is Timerever unless that was a implicit joke…. anyway, cool! I have a fan! Great now I’m opening a bottle of peach milkshake!!
And about remembering Cairo….. I can’t I’ve never been there, sad but true, Egipt seems a nice place so I may visit it and Cairo sometime in the future.
he was referring to Cairo, the working name for Windows 95 before it was released. We know you were not there.. you were only 3 after all
and @ JD… Linux is trailing Windows ? when was the last time to used Linux ?
Linux is so far advanced at the minute, if I was Microsoft I would be scared.
I was making a joke and you’ve spoiled it! and by the way ‘Cairo’ was the codename for Windows NT not for Windows 95.
Here:
http://www.fortunecity.com/skyscraper/fatbit/607/winstory/winstory….
See? Now you can read the history of Windows OS in spanish! I’m being your friend and you treat me like that… :'(
Cairo was a codename for the next generation of Windows after 95. I got a little confused there, Windows 95 codename was Chicago.
“If you disagree with the above points, I suggest you log off AOL, leave your bedroom, get your fat arse outside into the real world and get a clue for yourself, especially you Timerever.”
I would suggest you’ve never, ever, been in a corporate environment, or you’d know that your points are mostly fantasy – except the limited marketshare of Mac OS X.
“2006 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!”
2005 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
2004 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
2003 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
2002 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
2001 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
…
1998 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
I believe we’ve heard this refrain before.
Wow, I never knew RMS wrote *that*. A tax specifically for software development is completely redundant, because of the tons of money already spent by the DoD, DARPA, NSF, NIST, etc. etc. etc. on software and standards development. Driving higher and higher taxes to fund special interests (e.g., software), only bloats the government into a huge stagnant state where political clout matters more than merit.
Well I hope you realize I was simply mocking people who say “This is the year of the linux desktop”
I personally despise linux (but enjoy FreeBSD), and use Windows mainly. But I do development on linux, so I do know a little bit about it.
You read that everywhere, it’s in magazine, it’s here on the Web… Still, nobody seem to care! Only people in the know are running with a Linux Distro.
Their seem to be no momentum for Linux, no killer application, nothing that can push general people to move from Windows to Linux. Even Virus and Spyware and everything else that plague Windows are not reason enough to move to Linux.
So, what are we missing here? What’s wrong with Linux? What’s good with Microsoft? Even if MS has it’s finger in everything, if people knew their was something better, they would move to it…. Hey, it’s even FREE and nobody’s running to get it…
Let’s face it, Linux, even being free, is having the same hard time as Apple with their PC and OS X. They are only niche software for people who need them. Microsoft did a great job of taking over the world with their licence and Windows. It’s a big white elephant and it’s hard to move it away.
How useless.
If you want to be taken seriously on the desktop, basic things like this need to be included. Linux does it, OS X does it, why not Windows?
And don’t tell me to download or compile or whateverthefuck, shit like this needs to be INCLUDED.
“How useless.”
Hardly.
“If you want to be taken seriously on the desktop, basic things like this need to be included. Linux does it, OS X does it, why not Windows?”
Are you saying Windows isn’t taken seriously on the desktop? Are you being sarcastic?
“Only people in the know are running with a Linux Distro.”
Oh, really?
If you bought a copy of Windows 2000 in 1999, you’d find it end-of-lifed in just a few months (summer 2005) – or 6 years use before you are forced to upgrade
Anyone who has legally owned Win XP since it came out in 2001 will have until at least 2008, and possibly longer, with full support
I’d say thats a benefit….
…I wonder if MS is running into what apple was running into the early ’90s! It seems like it to me :p – maybe MS will develop some UNIX themselves and migrate to it
what, me never been in a corporate environment ?
sort it out mate, I have been in almost every computing environment you can imagine, I have been gainfully employed in the corporate environment since I left the military in the early 90s after 6 years of computer related services
so don’t come on here trying to be smart, your ignorance is only showing you up.
for example.
Personally, I prefer IRIX if I need a “UNIX”…
what ? you prefer to use a version of UNIX that specialises in graphics but has not had an update since 1994 ?
OK, feel free
no you have missed the point.
That guy Chris was paying his college $130 per year to use Microsoft software, that part is fair enough, I was responding to Altair, who said…
He probably pays that to get the MSDN Academic Alliance which is free download of all microsoft os’s and development software which is actually kinda nice.
It was the paying for FREE Downloads that I was going on about
instead of doing avalon, indigo, security, and winfx for longhorn v1 all at once, ms should have done security and indigo first for longhorn v1 because businesses would have wanted these features mostly, and home users wanted avalon and winfx but they are secondary to businesses. save avalon and winfx for longhorn v2 in two to three years. winfx should be finished by then.
Title above says enough.
Linux really needs to capitalize on this window. Time to put up or shutup for both sides of the OS market.
“If you bought a copy of Windows 2000 in 1999, you’d find it end-of-lifed in just a few months (summer 2005) – or 6 years use before you are forced to upgrade ”
Hate to rain on your parade, but Win 2000’s support (the stuff that matters to 99.9% of folks using it) is good thru 2012. the stuff ending this year, matters to very few folks. Very reason many of my clients are sticking with Win2k and have no intentions to upgrade anytime soon.
JT
I miss the days when the trolls actually made valid points in their dribble…
“Their seem to be no momentum for Linux, no killer application, nothing that can push general people to move from Windows to Linux. Even Virus and Spyware and everything else that plague Windows are not reason enough to move to Linux.
So, what are we missing here? What’s wrong with Linux? What’s good with Microsoft? Even if MS has it’s finger in everything, if people knew their was something better, they would move to it…. Hey, it’s even FREE and nobody’s running to get it…”
nothing is wrong with linux its just that people are used to windows and either dont have time or just dont want to bother learning new os … regular people dont know much about it and are scared of “migrating into the unknown” … so i think when they make linux windows like they might consider (one click installs and so on) and again linux lacks full support from large pc vendors (full support would be asking a customer would you like windows or linux with your machine with every order)
anyways linux has its users and uses and hopefully it keeps growing (not necessarily to become dominant os)…
The winner is clearly Liunx. I had enough of all the Windows problems anyways so I just wiped my drive and I am installing the Fedora Linux distro right now…
“sort it out mate, I have been in almost every computing environment you can imagine,”
I can imagine quite a bit, since I started with a VAX.
“I have been gainfully employed in the corporate environment since I left the military in the early 90s after 6 years of computer related services
”
So, you aren’t in a “corporate environment”. Thought so.
“so don’t come on here trying to be smart, your ignorance is only showing you up.”
That’s amusing.
for example.
“Personally, I prefer IRIX if I need a “UNIX”…
what ? you prefer to use a version of UNIX that specialises in graphics but has not had an update since 1994 ? ”
This is one of those “ignorance” moments you accused me of.
You stated:
‘”It would be fair to say no one has ever undertaken software change as big as this before.”‘
Umm, how to say this nicely…You’re wrong! Apple pulled off this type of massive software change during the transition from MacOS 9.x to Mac OS X. Though I doubt Microsoft will be able to do the same. Most likely, Longhorn will ultimately amount to little more than another expensive point upgrade to the aging NT/2000 core.
I am using Fedora Core 3 on my desktop and everything just worked out of the box. I love Linux now and would not ever touch Windows anymore.
For more info on Cairo see http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/os/story/0%2C10801~…
Note that at the time MS promised that next year they would add, among other things, a new OFS (Object File System) built over NTFS. And also promised a new display manager. Sounds familiar with some Short/Longhorn dream ?
The parallel with Copland is also interesting. Despite its qualities the MacOS architecture had its limits, and the whole OS had to be dumped and replaced with UNIX. Windows’ security flaws are due to its architecture. MS will, at some point, be forced to dump its OS too.
Some people who believe what PR says will think that Longhorn is MS’ brand new OS, while it is only the same old Windows painted in Indigo, the color en vogue this season.
> “2006 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!”
> 2005 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
> …
> 1998 is the year of the linux desktop!!!!11!
> I believe we’ve heard this refrain before.
>
Correct, and it was true each time….it was just a different kind of Linux desktop.
Back in 1998/99, it was the year of the Unix techie desktop. Back then Linux got the momentum and corporate support from Oracle, IBM, and friends to make it a good Unix development desktop. Driver support and GUI support improved and 2000/2001 was the year of the Unix desktop for people who liked Windows 2000 too. GNOME/KDE got better and 2003/2004 was the year of the Linux desktop for Windows 2000 Power Users who have some Unix experience on the side. OpenOffice and FireFox advanced, and communication from the kernel through HAL/DBUS started getting integrated into GNOME (and KDE?) so 2005/2006 is finally the year that Linux is good enough for advanced Windows users who have no Unix experience. Expect 2007/2008 to also be the year of the Linux desktop as Cairo, Xen, and SELinux bring new power and seemless security to Linux. Conservative “I’ll never use a technology until my friends do too” Joe Sixpack’s Linux Desktop probably won’t happen ’til 2009/2010, but it will happen.
Actually, Microsoft DID have their own Unix. It was called Xenix and was purchased by Santa Cruz Operation in the 80’s.
With any luck, SCO will soon go the way of the dinosaurs.
Is it just me who thinks that way or is Windows’ dominance on the desktops fading very rapidly? Many people I know are already using Linux at home and with another delay for Longhorn nobody seems to be willing to wait for a more mature version of Windows that may potentially bring a host of new problems.
Forget Longhorn. For me this weekend is Linux weekend! From what I’ve seen so far Linux looks great and I am ready to finally make the switch. I hear good things about Ubuntu and Fedora. Can anyone recommed a distro?
And every year the linux market share has grown, so what’s your point?
No, just CS majors have to pay the tax. It is a nice deal though, if you want Windows Server and .Net and all that. If you don’t really care you say to yourself “great, another line item charge on my university bill.”
Eventually I figure I’ll grab some software off it, I might as well. I do kinda want .Net, but have nothing to do with it at the moment. And I’m partially hoping Longhorn hits shelves soon enough that I can get it through this; because I do try to stay up to date.
It’s funny, because so far (2 years) I’ve only used an OSS MIPS emulator and g++ in CS classes. And those all were the recommended apps for the class, I swear! I forget the name of the MIPS emulator.
“Joe Sixpack’s Linux Desktop probably won’t happen ’til 2009/2010, but it will happen.”
Real Soon Now
The OS doesn’t matter. Apps matter.
“And every year the linux market share has grown, so what’s your point?”
That it STILL isn’t the “Year of Linux”, even though that has been claimed every year for a decade.
Linux “marketshare” is still VERY small.
“No, just CS majors have to pay the tax. It is a nice deal though, if you want Windows Server and .Net and all that.”
Ah, so this “Microsoft Tax” imposed on you isn’t really imposed by microsoft at all — its a university department imposed tax. Most likely the CS department either requires some of the software for use in their classes or the professors/chairs of the department use it; making it convenient for them to offer the software to their students in this sort of fashion.
However that wouldn’t sound as fun correctly identifying it for what it really is around here would it? Then again, you’re not a fanboy, and I’m not a jerk either right?
I was winding everyone up last night, I was not trolling, just winding in hehehe
Anyway, there was one thing that you said that annoyed me
I said I worked for the military, and I also invited you over to Belfast.
You replied that I must have worked for the IRISH military….
Belfast is in Northern Ireland, not Ireland
Northern Ireland is part of the UK, not Ireland
Thousands of people have died for the above misunderstanding.
So, no, I did not work for the Irish military.
Can anyone recommed a distro?
Yes i can recomment CentOS4.0 (based on RHEL 4.0).It’s a stable and complete Linux distribution for newcomers,intermediate and advanced users with a lively and friendly community.
Fedora isn’t bad either and leaves plenty of headroom for OS investigation if you want.
Yes i can recomment CentOS4.0 (based on RHEL 4.0).It’s a stable and complete Linux distribution for newcomers,intermediate and advanced users with a lively and friendly community.
Yep
In response to me
> The OS doesn’t matter. Apps matter.
>
And apps depend on the underlying OS. It’s a chicken and egg problem for the proprietary world, but not of open source. MacOSX wouldn’t be able to do half of what it currently does without the OS’s rendering engine and multithreaded extensible Objective-C architecture. It provides the foundation for many of MacOSX’s apps.
Windows 98 wouldn’t be able to do half of what Windows 2000/XP could do with its DOS-hybrid architecture. It provides the foundation for many of Windows 2000/XP apps.
The same came be said for Linux. Freedesktop standards, kernel enhancements, and GNOME/KDE enhancements have made the Linux desktop really pleasant over the last seven years. Seven years ago, multimedia was a joke. Sure it could be set up, but there were too many “standards” that didn’t interoperate. These days, it comes standard in “for pay” distributions or it’s an apt-get/yum/emerge away for free distributions and there are enough multimedia freedesktop standards out to make multimedia on Linux enjoyable. As far as office apps go, OpenOffice 2.0 (Beta at the moment), Firefox, Thunderbird/Evolution/KMail, and NVU make Linux a good corporate desktop. Calender support is still a bit week with Evolution, KMail, and Sunbird defining their own standards, but since each is adopting CalDAV/iCalendar, this final hurdle to the office desktop can be laid to rest.
In response to Chris
> “And every year the linux market share has grown, so what’s your point?”
> That it STILL isn’t the “Year of Linux”, even though that
> has been claimed every year for a decade. Linux “marketshare” is still VERY small.
You’re missing the point. It was “the year of the CD ROM” for about a decade before it really took off, but it wasn’t just hype during that decade, it just broke into different markets each year. That’s what I was saying. If you look at my own predictions, I gave about a 12 year time-frame. I didn’t say Linux was going to replace Windows. No-one knows what the equilibrium market share will ultimately be. For all we know, virtual machines (Java, .NET/CLR, Parrot, x86) may really take off and lead to so much portability that we may go back to the 80s where there were 100 different specialized OSes.
“Anyway, there was one thing that you said that annoyed me
So, no, I did not work for the Irish military.”
I. Do. Not. Care.
“And apps depend on the underlying OS. It’s a chicken and egg problem for the proprietary world, but not of open source. MacOSX wouldn’t be able to do half of what it ”
OSS is no different in this regard.
“currently does without the OS’s rendering engine and multithreaded extensible Objective-C architecture. It provides the foundation for many of MacOSX’s apps”
So does any system API on any system. There’s nothing being done on OS X that can only be done with “extensible Objective-C architectures”. Certainly not anything *I’m* interested in, but my market isn’t Apple’s target market.
“The same came be said for Linux. Freedesktop standards, kernel enhancements, and GNOME/KDE enhancements have made the Linux desktop really pleasant over the last seven years”
Not for those who actually have to use it for anything beyond the, frankly, trivial web and email uses you mention – and, no, OpenOffice doesn’t offer a particularly good corporate desktop. Not compared with the competition.
Yes, Linux will keep gaining market share very slowly.
Because there are always people that want to use something different. There are always people who want to look under the hood. There are always people who don’t want to pay. There are always people who want to use another OS as a gateway into geekdom.
And each passing year, Linux becomes a more viable alternative for these people. It’s a compromise usually, and as Linux gets better, more are willing to compromise to get certain things they want.
HOWEVER, all of these people together are still a small minority. Linux will not win over much more than that until the community makes more major changes. Seeing how many distros there are out there makes this dream for them further away though. Choice is a good thing, sure, but not when there is TOO much choice. That leads to confusion, lack of unification, consistency, etc; which we see in the linux community today.
OpenOffice doesn’t offer a particularly good corporate desktop. Not compared with the competition.
Ms Office could be easily made for Linux too.Maybe someday they will have to because it’s making more profit than competing with “enemies” you can’t see.
MacOsX is a very fine OS no doubt about it.Still i don’t see Apple increase it’s marketshare spectacular in the forseable future because bound to its hardware (both stregnth and weakness).
This will not be the delay (this thread was about the longhorn delay, right?) where Linux is going to make it. But the next one might. And this is the reason:
First people got Win2K (5.0).
Then they got WinXP (5.1). They are happy with WinXP. The only thing WinXP gives them, that Win2K doesn’t, is a fluffy GUI.
One day, in the future, they’ll get WinLH (6.0). This might mean a fancy new API and stuff like that. End users don’t care about APIs, all they care about is the GUI, and the apps. If the GUI get’s more fluffy, people might get allergic to it. The apps will still be doing the same things, as they’ve been doing the last 10 years, with minor (and useless) improvements.
The Windows after WinLH (version 6.1) will be just another useless Windows, that doesn’t add anything, FOR THE END USER. There is always been adding a lot of stuff, for the developers, but the only thing the end users is getting, is a fluffy GUI, and the bill… At this point of time, the users will have seen two useless releases, and I think Microsoft should get their crap together, and make something useful, cause the users might not want to make another useless, and very costly, update.
This might give Linux a chance. But on the other hand… What does Linux have, that MS don’t? Nothing! It’s all about making the most fluffy GUI, and the best API. End users don’t care about APIs.
So there is only one reason, for choosing Linux; The PC manufactures deliver it with their systems, because it will be cheaper for them, than shipping Windows…
Today (in Denmark) you can get a cheep PC, where the hardware costs the same as Windows (In 2010-12 the hardware will most likely be cheaper than Windows), and why double the price, just to get an outdated OS, when you’ve already seen two useless releases (WinXP and WinLH)?
MacOsX is a very fine OS no doubt about it.Still i don’t see Apple increase it’s marketshare spectacular in the forseable future because bound to its hardware (both stregnth and weakness).
I’d say that is incorrect, they have the POTENTIAL to increase their marketshare (OS and Hardware), but due to the America-centric attitude, it willl never happen. Maybe someone needs to pay a visit to Steve Jobs and remind him that there is a world beyond the shores of the US, and we to have money which we wouldn’t mind spending as well.
Maybe someone needs to pay a visit to Steve Jobs and remind him that there is a world beyond the shores of the US, and we to have money which we wouldn’t mind spending as well.
Every country has its Apple centers.They are not to hard to find.Remarkably all the prizes are the same in Europe.Wheras a HP or Sony have different prizes throughout Europe.Here in the Netherlands we pay a tremendous amount of tax for and on everything.Still the prize of an Aple G5 is the same throughout Europe.So they loose in the netherlands and make even with the sales in other countries?
The competition.
Hmmm… koreans and japanese like apple too!
anywho, all jokes aside, apple should donate or have radical price cuts to computers for universities in india and china. Imagine the most populous nations using apples and MacOS X :p
>“I think Microsoft should get their crap together, and make something useful, cause the users might not want to make another useless, and very costly, update.”
Almost 5 years after its release, Windows XP hardly makes 50% of Windows desktop market.
Also, average life of a home PC is close to 4-5 years, if your hard drive doesn’t fail on the second year.
That alone would tell you: users do not update their systems with the new version of an OS. They buy new systems with Windows XP preinstalled when they decided to trow away old ones.
That makes most of new versions of Windows sales.
Also, thanks to lawsuits we know that OEM Windows costs $40-$50 to huge OEMs. The price of Windows did not change in years, between different versions. It is not reasonable to expect that it’ll go up with the Longhorn.
So, for the same price, would you rather take older version of an OS or newer, with the new PC?
As useless as Longhorn could be, it’ll just come with new PC and people who want OS from Microsoft will take it.
They will not take it only if: the price of OS went way up, or if competition offers something really revolutionary that Microsoft can not.
>“Today (in Denmark) you can get a cheep PC, where the hardware costs the same as Windows”
Well, how much of a PC one can buy today in Denmark for $45 US?
>”(In 2010-12 the hardware will most likely be cheaper than Windows)”
Why wait? I can make it happen today. My computer store that I own can sell you, today and not in 2010, a CD with a full install of Windows XP Home for $3,500 US, VAT and s&h are not included.
In Denmark, I am sure, the hardware today is much cheaper than Windows XP Home retail price you will be paying me.
I can also let you use that price, $3,500 US before taxes, to justify how overpriced Windows XP is.
Of course, most of the world will be buying Windows XP preinstalled for $40-$50, but that is not the point, right?
>”So there is only one reason, for choosing Linux; The PC manufactures deliver it with their systems, because it will be cheaper for them, than shipping Windows…”
You are correct.
Huge OEMs see just $45 savings (top) for a desktop PC. That may, or may not be enough to try something else, and if it is enough- don’t you think Microsoft can’t lower the prices to, say, $15 for Windows XP OEM, for its largest customers?
It is not illegal to charge one price for single item sold, another price for small amount of items sold and much better price for huge quantities of the same product sold.
Also, Microsoft may turn around in its pricing and go Linspire way: an OS is free (or really cheap, like $5 per copy), but there is annual subscription fee to conveniently access patches, updates, and software known to work on that OS.
The piracy rate is known to be 30% to 95%, so if Microsoft goes the Linux way of asking for annual subscription, and only 70% of users in developed countries and 5% of users in developing countries buy it- Microsoft can count the same profit it does today.
Say, considering OS OEM is $50, and it lasts 5 years, $10/year does not look to be too much for Automatic Windows Updates and deals on Microsoft Windows Marketplace products.
That price, $10/year, would become even more attactive if Microsoft includes anti-spyware and anti-virus subscription with it.
As you could see, Microsoft has enough options to stay on top of the game for time to come, if OEMs and end users don’t accept $45 charge for an OS that comes with a new computer.
So, I would go so far as say that today switching to Linux does not justify savings of $45 for big American OEMs, for different reasons. What are these reasons? Hiddent costs, perhaps, and nothing revolutionary in the Linux comparing to Mac OS X and Windows.
Whatever reasons there are, if Linux were what people want and OEMs can provide much cheaper than Windows, OEMs will be selling Linux like mad.
If “old” OEMs are too slow- new will appear. After all, guys from http://www.sub300.com started their business from the room behind a car wash. This is how businesses start in America, including such a huge OEM as Dell.
I am sure if Linux were ready, Sub300 would be running its business 6 months from now from the huge warehouse in the middle of Ohio, filled with orders from people willing to buy Linspire preinstalled.
That is not happening. The only way to make Linux come to desktop today is to force OEMs install it instead of Windows. That is where America is different from the coutries like China, like Brazil, and in some extend- Europe.
Big corporations in USA have more freedoms to do business they like, even the dumb way, without the government showing them the right way, telling them how much they should charge, how they should name their product, what should they sell, and without the huge penalties levied by the government for “almost breaking the law.”
So, for the same price, would you rather take older version of an OS or newer, with the new PC?
Eh,format c: y ?
Whatever reasons there are, if Linux were what people want and OEMs can provide much cheaper than Windows, OEMs will be selling Linux like mad.
How can they know what they want usually if there’s no alternative presented?Would be nice when PC’s come bundled with more OS’s to choose from,perhaps standard with a multiboot configuration.
>“How can they know what they want usually if there’s no alternative presented?”
How did they know to buy computers from Dell when Dell just started?
How can I know what is http://www.sub300.com and http://www.walmart.com (Linux notebook) and http://www.staples.com (Linux desktop) and http://www.apple.com (just for alternative)?
>“Would be nice when PC’s come bundled with more OS’s to choose from,perhaps standard with a multiboot configuration.”
I don’t know. Actually, I do but you would like my answer.:)
So, if you think it is what people want, why can’t you start like Dell, with just $10,000? You have someone to borrow you $10,000, right?
You can sell computers direct through the Internet, and they all will have multiboot configuration. You will make millions and billions because people will flock to you for what they want, not to Dell and Walmart and Apple for what they force on people.
What is stopping you, eh?
You have someone to borrow you $10,000, right?
Nope
You will make millions and billions because people will flock to you for what they want, not to Dell and Walmart and Apple for what they force on people.
🙂
Consumers win if the software is delayed. One or two things will happen, customers will get a better OS when longhorn ships or they’ll find a strong alternative.
Either way consumers can’t lose.
As for GNU/Linux, if you want to see it become a viable platform then push companies to get the applications average consumers use on windows over to the GNU/Linux OS. Its the apps that keeps people on the OS. Offer something better than what they use now on a level they understand and they might be interested.
As it sits now most Linux distros are simply trying to catch up to the functionality of windows without offering any real incentive in the applications department over Windows.
Sure you can say that GNU/Linux is free but to most end users that dosen’t mean anything. They could care less if they have the source to the software they run. They just want the software.
Now for the car analogy – Walking is free as in beer and frees people from the cost of a car but I know more people who drive than walk myself.
In case noone noticed, you CANT sell multiboot machines, at least not if you want to sell Windows with a OEM license: MS’s OEM contracts have clauses that prohibit this.
In the past some country tried it, and they were sued.
But on the other hand… What does Linux have, that MS don’t?
How about a very good security modell, that is not based on locking the owner out of the computer, but still very secure. I’m of course thinking of SELinux.
General public don’t care about better security model. This is not a feature that will help sell Linux.
In fact, right now, nothing is good enough or better in Linux to make a diffrence in the mind of general people.
Windows is all over the world, everybody is using it, why change? Why learn something new and risk being incompatible with the neibourg?
You realy need to be a tech or OSNews reader to know all those things and to prefer running X flavor of Linux.
exactly.
people will demand linux desktop only when there is an application that really is worth the hassle. Right now osx media applications are good enough to motivate some consumers to consider the Mac. Is there any program in linux that rivals in ease of use of existin windows and apple software? What are the jewels of linux software good enough to tempt users away from windows? OpenOffice? firefox? gimp? all available on windows. Why switch?
Everything that WE see as a positive thing in Linux is not something that people will demand or ask about.
You’re right, all major OpenSource application are allso running under Windows (or even Mac). So no need to switch and learn something new.
So even if we find a VERY good Linux distro, it will never be good enough to move people to it… It still need something not found on Win or OSX… And it’s not security, it’s not «less virus/spyware», it’s not «stability»…. It will have to be something bigger than that.
Puffff…, I think that we expect this OS for the 3007 (plus or minus). Come on Tux!! It’s your opportunity!!
Is there any program in linux that rivals in ease of use of existin windows and apple software?
Enlighten me,does windows have programs installed besides iexplorer ,mediaplayer and msn+ads+spyware?MacOsX is indeed a very good OS and i’m trying to save some money in order to learn and enjoy it too.
Is there any program in linux that rivals in ease of use of existin windows and apple software?
Does windows have file signature verifying like gpg or md5?
Does windows have terminal server software without licences?
Can you specify a different server to download your updates from on windows?
Why switch?
I’m not feeling obligated to tell you have to switch.It’s all up to you.For me windows is just a tool to harvest windows bugs,other than that i have no use yet for a windows box.
What are the jewels of linux software good enough to tempt users away from windows?
*Development* and professional net tools and easier to get libraries.Agree Visual studio is not bad, in fact quite good.But does it come free with windows?
So it seems…
When we are talking about Linux on the Desktop, are we only talking about developers? Is Linux ever going to be good for ordinary people?
Running around like a dog chasing is tails… Just saying that Linux is good at this and that does not make it good enough for people to move to it.
people will demand linux desktop only when there is an application that really is worth the hassle. Right now osx media applications are good enough to motivate some consumers to consider the Mac. Is there any program in linux that rivals in ease of use of existin windows and apple software? What are the jewels of linux software good enough to tempt users away from windows? OpenOffice? firefox? gimp? all available on windows. Why switch?
You could say the same thing about Longhorn. This is probably one of the biggest problems for Microsoft right now. The only way to fight this is to stop support older software versions.
One reason to switch to Linux would be that a windows upgrade can be quite costly especially if you as a result need to upgrade other programs as well.
As people start to realize that its wrong to use pirated software and Microsoft and other software developers take strongers actions to prevent unauthorized use, more people will need to replace software they can’t afford with something more affordable.
Does windows have file signature verifying like gpg or md5?
Does windows have terminal server software without licences?
Can you specify a different server to download your updates from on windows?
well. It’s sad that those are the only examples you could come up with. I really dont think there are many grandmothers out there running terminal server software from their computer, or verifying the integrity of their linux isos downloaded online. or caring enough where to download updates from a different site than the default…
When we are talking about Linux on the Desktop, are we only talking about devel
You asked for the jewels didn’t you?Wheras windows doesn’t have any if they didn’t came bundled with the PC you bought.
I really dont think there are many grandmothers out there running terminal server software from their computer
Than why is windows remote desktop help servive on as default on windows XP?
Linux is also good for older software. Example: VL runs on hardware where W95 of Win 3.11 also is capable to run.
Windows is good at attracting the avarage people. that’s something de Linux community is learning (example is Ubuntu)
Although if you are principal, you define Windows software as being sold and Linux as being downloaded for free. The thruth is more that Windows is being copied illegal and Linux software legal. That difference wil be treasured by MS, cause “we” won’t migrate.
If MS makes a mistake by making illegal software impossible, that could boost other OSes to Homecomputers.
lighans
All I know is this:
1. http://www.humanclock.com is amazing. Discovered it tonight.
2. The “moderated down” comments for this thread are hysterical.
3. Microsoft is a disgrace. It’s like a bad joke: “How many Microsoft engineers does it take to release an OS?”
shouldn’t all news sites just make these “Longhorn delayed” posts sticky?