Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 23rd Jan 2013 22:09 UTC
Apple "Apple Inc reported quarterly revenue that slightly missed Wall Street expectations as sales of its flagship iPhone came in below target, sending its shares down more than 4 percent. The world's largest technology company shipped 47.8 million iPhones, lower than the roughly 50 million that Wall Street analysts had predicted. Sales of the iPad came in at 22.9 million in the fiscal first quarter, about in line with forecasts." I'll leave the financials to the experts, but one thing that stood out to me: Apple sold 4.2 million Macs, almost a million below expectations. How much of a future does desktop computing have at Apple? Update: The NYT/Reuters changed the title during the night. Fixed it.
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RE[2]: Ridiculous expectations
by galvanash on Wed 23rd Jan 2013 23:53 UTC in reply to "RE: Ridiculous expectations"
galvanash
Member since:
2006-01-25

I you invested $100 in Apple in July 2002 your stocks were worth $700,000 dollars in July of 2012...

A few months later their stock price went all the way to $700 a share (from aobut $500). Now it is back down to $514 (its actually trading slightly up so far today surprisingly).

In other words ANY money you put into Apple during the 10 year period between 2002 and 2012 would yeilded a significant net gain, even though it lost a full 20% of its value since around Sept...

Even if you just invested in the S&P 500, you would still see about a 20% gain over that same time period...

The point is no, you can't get that kind of reliable return on investment in a Casino. And the risk calculation is completely different - all you have in a Casino is random chance, and it is carefully balanced to give the house an advantage. Always.

In the stock market, it is the other way around. Odds are you make money over the long haul. It is the short haul that presents a danger... And you actually get to use your brain and pick where you want to put your money.

Im not promoting Apple stock or anything. Just saying yeah, some people lose money in the stock market - but most people actually don't. if you avoid doing stupid things like day trading and what not and don't try and be too aggressive it historically has ALWAYS been a much better place to put money than under your mattress...

It is definitely a better place to put money than on a roulette wheel.

Reply Parent Score: 3

galvanash Member since:
2006-01-25

Just noticed... That should be $7,000, not $700,000... The market has been good to Apple, but not THAT good.

Reply Parent Score: 5

Phloptical Member since:
2006-10-10

I you invested $100 in Apple in July 2002 your stocks were worth $700,000 dollars in July of 2012...

A few months later their stock price went all the way to $700 a share (from aobut $500). Now it is back down to $514 (its actually trading slightly up so far today surprisingly).

In other words ANY money you put into Apple during the 10 year period between 2002 and 2012 would yeilded a significant net gain, even though it lost a full 20% of its value since around Sept...

Even if you just invested in the S&P 500, you would still see about a 20% gain over that same time period...

The point is no, you can't get that kind of reliable return on investment in a Casino. And the risk calculation is completely different - all you have in a Casino is random chance, and it is carefully balanced to give the house an advantage. Always.

In the stock market, it is the other way around. Odds are you make money over the long haul. It is the short haul that presents a danger... And you actually get to use your brain and pick where you want to put your money.

Im not promoting Apple stock or anything. Just saying yeah, some people lose money in the stock market - but most people actually don't. if you avoid doing stupid things like day trading and what not and don't try and be too aggressive it historically has ALWAYS been a much better place to put money than under your mattress...

It is definitely a better place to put money than on a roulette wheel.


And where was Apple's stock before it released the ipod? How many "hot tips" from 1997 to 2001 are still making those gains today?
But, I digress, let's use your Roulette anecdote. Betting the wheel is essentially the same thing as betting in wall street, albeit the rate of return over time is much shorter. In roulette, you need a bankroll of probably a couple thousand, and a sound betting strategy, to guide you over the gains and losses over the course of a night. In stocks, guess what......it's the same thing. You need a similar amount of cash to make it worth your while. A long term investment strategy made up with conservative stocks to balance your betting on the "next big thing" (which 99% of the time, is just a pump and dump scheme by brokers) And you ride that out over time, changing your bets on this stock or that fund and pray you get the ever elusive 8% return (that the investment firms love to dangle in front of you) or at the very least match the performance of the S&P.
So, trust me.....don't believe the hype. Wall Street is nothing more than legalized gambling.

Reply Parent Score: 2

galvanash Member since:
2006-01-25

And where was Apple's stock before it released the ipod? How many "hot tips" from 1997 to 2001 are still making those gains today?


I wasn't making a case for Apple stock. If you bought it 10 years ago you were lucky - I completely concede that. I was simply illustrating that the hit the stock has taken over the last 6 months isn't as bad as many people imply if you were a long term investor.

But, I digress, let's use your Roulette anecdote. Betting the wheel is essentially the same thing as betting in wall street, albeit the rate of return over time is much shorter.


No its not. Because unlike roulette wall street isn't governed purely by chance. Roulette has a mathematically provable rate of return of -2.7% - there is not "betting strategy" that can change that - it is simple math. You can certainly get lucky, but the longer you play the closer to -2.7% you will get.

It is also different because historical performance has no statistical relation to future results. Again, a working roulette wheel might come up black 1000 times in a row - the odds of it coming up red on the next roll are still 50/50...

Markets don't work that way - they have history and history IS relevant, at least on timescales that most people are concerned with...

In roulette, you need a bankroll of probably a couple thousand, and a sound betting strategy, to guide you over the gains and losses over the course of a night. In stocks, guess what......it's the same thing.


Please describe a "sound betting strategy" in a game of pure chance... There is no such thing...

A long term investment strategy made up with conservative stocks to balance your betting on the "next big thing" (which 99% of the time, is just a pump and dump scheme by brokers) And you ride that out over time, changing your bets on this stock or that fund and pray you get the ever elusive 8% return (that the investment firms love to dangle in front of you) or at the very least match the performance of the S&P.
So, trust me.....don't believe the hype. Wall Street is nothing more than legalized gambling.


Changing your bets and betting on the next big thing is how you lose money on wall street... The people that do that, those are the people funding the smart investors rather common 8% return (actually more like 10%).

Read this:

http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2008/12/16/how-much-does-the-stoc...

Its not rocket science. Invest in the S&P 500 or a decent fund with a good history... Unlike roulette, math is on your side as long as your patient. Yes, you can stil lose your ass - but the odds are actually in your favor...

Reply Parent Score: 2