Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 05:39 UTC
Microsoft Ever since Stephen Elop became CEO of Nokia we knew this outcome was inevitable. It was his job to make it as easy as possible for Microsoft to acquire the vital parts of Nokia, and here we are: Microsoft is acquiring Nokia's devices unit for 3.79 billion euro, and another 1.65 billion euro for its patents. It's a bit of a complicated deal in that Microsoft buys the Asha feature phone brand and Lumia smartphone brand outright, but will only license the Nokia name for current Nokia products; the Nokia brand will remain under the control of Nokia the company. This means Nokia as a phone brand is effectively dead.

In addition, Stephen Elop will return to Microsoft. I'm sure entirely coincidentally, Ballmer announced recently that he's stepping down.

All this was as inevitable as the tides rolling in. Nokia has been going downhill and has stagnated ever since the announcement it would bank its future on Windows Phone. It went from being the largest smartphone manufacturer to an also-ran, which is made painfully clear by the fact that Microsoft paid more for Skype than it does for Nokia's devices unit.

A painful end for a once-great phone brand. This was the plan all along, and in essence, Nokia's board has executed it masterfully; the Finnish company has switched core markets several times in its long, long history (it started out as a paper company), and the unprofitable phone business was a huge liability for the company, despite claims by some that Nokia was doing just fine. Nokia's board has masterfully gotten rid of this money pit so it can focus on the parts that are profitable.

And, as always, the next Lumia will turn it all around.

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Prediction
by adinas on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 09:30 UTC
adinas
Member since:
2005-08-17

Microsoft will stop licensing Windows Phone 8 and later Windows 8 to other companies (like Jobs did when he returned to Apple).

They will try to control the entire experience software and hardware (Like Apple).

They will end up with single digit percent market share (Like Apple).

Android will be the new Windows (fine, it already is) used by many companies and controlling 90% of the market.

Reply Score: 11

RE: Prediction
by ricegf on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 11:03 in reply to "Prediction"
ricegf Member since:
2007-04-25

All of that seems fairly obvious except for ending the Windows 8+ licensing program. That's a pretty bold prediction.

While the desktop market is shrinking rapidly relative to the overall consumer computing space, Windows still has close to 90% of the former, and desktops are still holding rather firm within businesses.

Since you apparently don't believe Macs will gain double-digit desktop share, that leaves Linux - Ubuntu convergence devices, ChromeOS, Android on the desktop, or an even darker horse. Maybe a brilliant run by Haiku or ReactOS? ;-)

Unless a competitor rises to destroy their market position in desktops, as Android did to their mobile product, it's pretty hard to imagine Microsoft pulling the dominant desktop OS away from Dell, HP, Asus, Lenovo and the rest.

But if it happens within 5 years, please link to this comment and say "I told you so". If it happens in 3, I'll link to this comment and say "Wow, you told me so!" :-D

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[2]: Prediction
by adinas on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 20:28 in reply to "RE: Prediction"
adinas Member since:
2005-08-17

well i may be wrong about Windows 8. But still think it is a possibility for Windows 8 RT and possibly Windows 9...

I myself use Ubuntu on one of my laptops :-)

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE: Prediction
by ezraz on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 13:06 in reply to "Prediction"
ezraz Member since:
2012-06-20

Why no talk of profit?

People talk market share like it's the 90's and apple only has a little bit. But they are taking home nearly all the profit in the mobile space.

I don't understand why this is continually ignored here. Aren't companies in the business of making profit? How long can Android hold market share if no one is making any money from it?

Reply Parent Score: 0

RE[2]: Prediction
by TM99 on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 15:30 in reply to "RE: Prediction"
TM99 Member since:
2012-08-26

Because that 'cash' is still tied up in the stock market in one form or another. Apple has one of the lowest R&D budgets per sales and has a portfolio that rivals large hedge funds.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/darcytravlos/2013/03/24/apple-cash-marg...

This gives a good overview, and why the market looks at Apple's stock price and NOT their cash on hand.

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[2]: Prediction
by Bill Shooter of Bul on Tue 3rd Sep 2013 19:07 in reply to "RE: Prediction"
Bill Shooter of Bul Member since:
2006-07-14

Conversely, How much longer can Apple Maintain such profit margins as their market share dwindles? Other competitors will gain the efficiencies of massive scale, that Apple cannot.

Reply Parent Score: 3