Jonathan Schwartz keeps singing Sun’s favourite tune – that Web services, not desktop apps, are the future. “The majority of the applications that will drive the next wave of innovation will be services, not applications that run on the desktop. The real innovation is occurring in the network and the network services,” Schwartz said.
Of course.. Everyone knows that..
Nothing to see here, move on…
How many times have we heard this already?
It makes sense to convert some apps to web services while others doesn’t make sense at all. But “The real innovation is occurring in the network and the network services”? Come on! In terms of innovation, what would we gain on an application being remotely hosted?
I agree that there is innovation going on “in the network”, like google maps for example. But what does that have to do with web services vs desktop apps? It’s marely a matter of where and how the information gathered from the network is presented.
Desktop applications wont go away for a long long time. Web services will be used in the areas where it makes sense, as will desktop apps. The PC is far from outmoded.
How many times have we heard this already?
I think Sun has been saying this for the last 20 years. I suppose if they say it long enough, eventually they’ll be right.
I just wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it to happen anytime soon.
Yawn… Didn’t Microsoft blow hot air about this years ago?
Yes but they didn’t really mean it. They much rather have desktop apps themselves. Having Web Services allow people with other platforms to run the same application. While everyone else would like to have more web services that way they have more equal chance in pushing their products.
So am I reading this right? CAD, Video Editing, etc will be done on the web Sun?
Why not? All you need to do is push the front end to the user. Wouldn’t it be nice if all of your CAD/video rendering was done on a server farm instead of your local box. About the only thing in the way is that broadband still isn’t fast enough to effectively upload and download files of that size. As broadband speeds increase the barriers will go down.
There is a difference between “all applications” and “applications that will drive the next wave of innovation”.
At least read the excerpt.
Actually, it means “all applications that are worth a damn.” While you were snoozing, there’s no question that applications are moving in this direction – or at least a hybrid. In fact, most things considered, I don’t even need a full desktop if my bandwidth is high enough and accessible enough.
I find myself working more and more often by just popping in a live CD (FreeSBIE) and doing all my work online. If I really have to store something on my hard disk, I can always mount the partition, save my work and that’s it. But I rarely have to.
That said, I still have windoze, for those lonely nights with HOMM 4. Wish I could ditch that habit.
…and how futile it was to try to give everyone in the world a PC when it was clear the majority would be using mobile phones.
One could live with both models.
I might gladly junk this piece of Windows PC xx to surf the web as long as the net conncetion was much faster, instant connect, and allowed local HD or usb storage with plenty of net storage too. Sounds like google though.
For my workstation, that must remain off line, I dare not risk connecting to the web for any reason and it is app oriented. I think Sun understands this, most mom & pop PCs are not running many/any apps anyway.
Most people can’t maintain their PCs, much less keep their own data from getting lost or stolen. My friend spent months loading all his pictures on his PC, then came the fateful day. Doesn’t know what happened, but poof — All gone. He sent the drive back to WD to see if they could recover anything, since he said he didn’t need to film anymore. Bad move.
If you look at blogs, email accounts online, and Broadband account options, like online storage, the future is clear. All the messy stuff is done by “someone else”. Just got my email today about comcast broadband and their free MacAfee virus software. Don’t need it, I run NIX, but it another step down the road.
Trot down to your local cell phone company and look at the latest Blackberry, expand the screen to desktop size, be happy. Do you know what OS your cell phone runs? Do you care? Welcome to the new world without MS or any OS for that matter.
The Network is the Computer, people are just now finding it out.
Geeks need to go play with real people.
The Network is the Computer, people are just now finding it out. Geeks need to go play with real people.
The network isn’t the computer. There are tons of things that are done far more easily on your local PC than over a network or through a web browser. Want to use a graphics app? Create some music? Edit or create a video? Design some documents? Even simple word processing is easier when done on your desktop than over the network.
Even Google created a Word add-on for people to post to their blogs (the Word add-on for Blogger) because they found that there were enough users who preferred to use a desktop app to compose their posts rather than do it through a web browser.
So all you have shown is that current webapps aren’t perfect and current browsers are ideal for running webapps. Both of those things aren’t huge problems. Technology like XUL makes adding a more conventional UI to your web app possible and people are discovering new and clever ways of creating better and better webapps every day. Web based applications is a fairly young field, I see things improving in the future.
Dag
I can’t wait for Sun Ray appliances to get adopted by telco’s on the WAN, that will make PC’s truly obsolete. Sun Ray can take the computing paradigm of desktop to a level of utility (like telephone) where you don’t have to have (administer/upgrade/maintain) a PC, you just plug in to the telco’s desktop grid to access your desktop and you have your session back regardless where you’re (work, home, coffee shop, etc.) It may sound far fetched for uninitiated, but apparently Sun is already using Wan Ray’s (as they call them) pretty extensively for telecommuting employees accross the WAN’s. There are some postings by Sun employees on blogs.sun.com bragging about that. Sun Ray is a seriously cool technology, I just hope Sun can drive it well enough to ensure wide adoption.
SunRay’s are awesome! I have seen them in action at one of the Sun office in Irvine, Ca. This was years ago though. About 3 years ago I’m guessing.
I watched as the Sun engineer demonstrated how he can use his ID card to “hot-desktop” from one SunRay to the other just by inserting the ID card into the SunRay device. It was pretty neat. All the SunRay devices there we plugged into a 21″ monitor. It was pretty cool and fast too.
At that time, the SunRay’s were running CDE which by today’s standards isn’t very appealing. I believe GNOME runs on the SunRay server these days although I don’t keep up with Sun technology very much.
At the time our company was looking into finally getting rid of Microsoft on the desktop, but unfortunately the applications just weren’t there yet. I bet you anything if MS Office ran on the SunRay, we’d have them right now. For an office enviroment, MS Office is the only reason why we stick with Microsoft.
We did try StarOffice at the time and it just didn’t quite cut it. I don’t know if it’s gotten any better since I haven’t tried it recently.
By the way, we have a deployment of 30 WinTerms in our office for the call center, which shows our dedication to thin clients. They work great with Windows 2003 Server. Too bad they’re not SunRay’s with a SunRay server.
…it always makes a comeback!
It seems like yesterday that people used to connect to mainframes with dumb-terminals – time for it to make a comeback I guess.
The question is why would you give someone else authority to manage YOUR files?
“The question is why would you give someone else authority to manage YOUR files?”
Agree, I want my files on my own. And I like system administration, I don’t want Sun or Google or especiallt Microsoft to take care of it!
And while were talking, isn’t it dangerous if one comany owns all the data stored in the whole world? I mean, they will basicly be able to control every goverment with computers –> a new era of dictators, this time really controlling the world :O
And I don’t want Sun or Google to know when I watch pr0n…
Well, we have spoken…!
There is only 1 way a network computer could work. If, and only if, the average bandwidth to the home was increased to close to 100Mbps.
Without that kind of bandwidth, at dialup speeds, its pointless. Might as well have local storage, local CPU, etc.
Is the PC CPU limited?
Is it limited on storage capacity?
Is it expensive?
If the answer is yes for any of the above the network might make sense.
For a service to have use… something has to call the service.
For example Sun JDS or Sun JDNC… Java on Desktop!
Does he think C# will call a Sun JBI?
.V
http://roomity.com … a Java Desktop / Java Service app.
Schwartz predicts the end of desktops 4 articles after the VP of Gartner predicts UNIX is basicially dead.
Didn’t BYTE magazine proclaim that UNIX was dead back in the early 90s?
At this rate, UNIX will be healthy and kicking long past Gartner is dead.
There will come a time that this will be desireable but not any time soon. The like of Elison and others have been beating this drum for years and most have lost chunks of money on it. Again the consumers will drive the adoption of this type of technology. Currently with PC’s as cheap as they are i don’t see a large adoption of this tech within the next decade or so.
There will come a time that this will be desireable but not any time soon. The like of Elison and others have been beating this drum for years and most have lost chunks of money on it. Again the consumers will drive the adoption of this type of technology. Currently with PC’s as cheap as they are i don’t see a large adoption of this tech within the next decade or so.
Not necessarily cheapness; Apple has already proven that cheapness is not always the driving factor behind the adoption of a technology – if it is cool, hip, and marketed well, anything can be successful.
The problem is, however, SUN can’t market to save themselves; if they had the sexy marketing of Apple, I’d put money on it, Joe and Jane Doe, with 2.5 kids and the white picket fence will be more than happy to run off to the local Dick Smiths or Harvey Norman, splash over NZ$1000 cash for a SUNRay and pay $30 to their local ADSL or cable provider to have access to the internet and ability to access all the software they need, on a remote computer, and without all the hassles of having to go out, purchase then install the software.
Its all about marketing by SUN, good quality services at cheap as chips prices by service providers, coupled with the ability to be able to access the data on the run; be it via a laptop using wifi, at home with a SUN Ray client or via a mobile phone.
Oh, just as a side issue; SUN employees have noted that using existing cable modems, the technology is usable without any problems – assuming that one has a 10mbps connection, coupled with compression used by the SUN Ray server/client technology, problems shouldn’t occur, and considering that there is now a move towards game consoles for gaming and a step away from desktop computers in favour of laptops, there is very little need to require all the flashy stuff that wouldn’t be available via thin client technology.
Console game systems have a long way to come before they equal the power and flexibility of a PC. I personally like to maintain my privacy by storing anything important locally to my machine and not have to rely on a network connection to do what i have to do on my computer. I would argue that as the average computer user gets more sophisticated they will demand more from the device than a network computer or even console game can provide. Time will tell of course for me for now they would have to pry my setup from my cold dead fingers.
I’m sorry, but what this this guy Schwartz says is usually totally irrelevant. Sun is in deep trouble for having guys like him at the top of its food chain.
And Sun is really not going anywhere with guys like these. Their servers are still way over expensive. If a company like Google would have been buying these guys stuff, they would not be where they are right now, as they would possibly be broke by now.
They have completely changed their views about other operating systems, particularly Linux, a gazillion times, and still counting. For years, they preached Microsoft and Windows being evil. They got a chunk of cash from Microsoft, and now they love it. You simply don’t know where these guys stand, and much less where their product lines are moving towards.
They have developed great technology throughout the years, but they never can come up with a good application for it, unless they buy it from someone else (i.e. Star Office).
With a totally new upper management, it might possibly have a chance. Until then, what Sun’s company officials say totally is irrelevant with regards to the overall market.
The network is the computer
So sell your sun shares and buy cisco.
The web browser has to run on something.
That thing is not made by sun.
AGAIN? But I do like SUN, I really do
Oh well, it’s the return of the Network Computer all over again. Desktop PC is dead, welcome small NC that can’t do everything but are soooo coool and easy to use.
Exactly why does anyone care what a company CEO says about his “industry”? Doesn’t everyone notice that he’s not unbiased? It’d be like me saying “The value of my house will grow faster than any other house on the block.”
Geeesh, why not just admit to yourselves the article is an informercial and not even link to it.
It makes sense for enterprise, simplified management and centralized storage. Sun never targets home users.
The world of PCs will end — There will be no point in trying to manage one for the average joe user. That is coiming sooner than most think
What I typically see on geek sites is geeks don’t talk to normal users much. For the average user, once their wondoze box is three months old they are in deep dodo, with spam bots coming out of their ears.
Every time I want to praise Sun for something like Solaris…
Jonathan Schwartz goes, opens his mouth and has me cursing them to the nine hells.
This was true 10 years ago, when they were hawking java for the desktop. Now the truth is desktop and web are converging. The future is web and net-connected desktop applications, and rich desktop-like web applications, via svg, ajax, etc.
The network isn’t the computer. The _interface_ is the computer.
that is useful to anyone but a systems administrator or a ‘I open one UNIX application fullscreen and leave it open for months at a time’ workstation user, they feel that there is no place for such devices?
Please. Apple got my money because they know that the ‘Personal’ is the ‘Personal Computer’. I use it to write software, play music, record music, create 2D and 3D artwork, play games, surf the web, read email and occasionally use an office suite to read or write a document. I also use Linux machines to do many of the same tasks along with my ‘propellerhead’ work stuff.
The usage model that Schwartz seems to think is the norm is totally backwards from this. Schwartz etc. seem to think that people who buy PCs are mindless automatons without a single ounce of creativity, ambition or curiosity in their bodies, who just want to process messages sent to them by their superiors and churn out word processing documents ad nauseum.
Maybe thats true for some people who are desperately dependent on some kind of corporate rat-race to live, but it sure as hell isn’t true for me.
Schwartz is right, PC is an antiquity of the dark past. It is time to replace the PC with a utility model and it is a good time to do it, since all the right technology finally arrived. Sun has got everything it needs to make it a reality (Sun has Sun Ray over WAN, Sun recently bought Tarantella (Citrix will not be needed)), it is just a matter of driving it with telco’s to make it a real utility. With Sun Ray and Tarantella Sun can deliver pretty much any application (Solaris, Unix, Linux, Windows, mainframe applications) to a stateless desktop — Sun has by far the best offering to make this a reality.
You’re right, they are in the best position, but is this what people, want? I for one want free and unfettered control over MY data, which means you will still need some form of local storage, plus choice of apps to modify such data, so I will say no thank you, and hold on to my “antique” PC
Well, as the ol’ saying goes: you either bend with the wind or break. Sun chooses to break. Their hardware profit model is on life support, and they haven’t a clue as what to do next. No talent, no vision, no clue.
They’re flailing in the wind by toying with linux, while similtaneously kissing microsoft’s ass, and desperately working on new products that, well, just suck. Can’t pick a direction to save their lives so they’re going in every direction.
But that doesn’t stop Scott McNeely’s superbloated blowhard ego from speaking once again, and as usual, he’s full of crap.
FTA:
“Improving StarOffice’s ability to work with Microsoft software is considered critical to expanding Sun’s reach within companies that already use Microsoft products.”
I would buy the commercial version of SO if Sun could make their software 100% compatible with MS. Sorry, but $400 for an office suite is a tad bit high.
at $400 why not just buy MS office ?
Right now companies are doing their best along with the recording and movie industries to take away consumer rights. Once a company gets a foothold for a centralized web-based OS replacement they will have far too much control over people’s computers. I might sound like some crazy doom-sayer to some people, but that might just be because I don’t buy it when some company miles away says they care about me when when they don’t even know I exist and when they are actively working out a way to cyphen away my money and my rights without any concern for my welfare.
Companies don’t care about users, they care about money. Hopefully when Sun, Microsoft, and maybe even Apple get rid of full OS’s in favor of this, Linux and BSD will still remain full operating systems with no internet dependence. Perhaps centralized web-based systems are useful to companies who like to keep maintenance costs down, but it’s bad for home users because it means someone else controls your computer and owns your files. It seems to me that people have always prefered decentralized systems, people want to own what is theirs; after all, do you really want to give up any control the software you need to make your computer useful?
Actually… There’s a number of different ways this could go. If it is setup properly, a company could supply you with the software and the configuration of your computer, but little or no data would be sent back to the company. If executed this way, the user would still retain control of their data.
Another possiblity is to make it so all data is encrypted before it is sent out to the service provider. This would allow the user to protect their data.
And actually… For home users this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad situation. Think about it. Many of them don’t REALLY control their computers now since they don’t know what they are doing or have someone else setup it up and maintain it for them, so what will have changed?
Personally I can’t really see myself allowing someone else control my data or software, but theb… I’m not a typical home user.
If PC will replaced with dumb terminals and everything go from net, IMHO the price of servers will be higher, because most of cheap x86 based servers build from standard PC components (motherboard, CPU, hard disc, operatition system). In this case the web-based services will focused in hand of few companies. Yes, SUN, IBM and other big hardware companies will be happy in this case, and the big net-based companies like Yahoo, Google, etc also will be ritch. But you can’t change your system from windows to linux, bsd, etc, because the system is the web. And the control of web will be equal with control the information.
Business, games and porn.
Only one of those is conducive to low power terminals with files stored on a remote server.
every computer I use. I log in to my home server with ssh and have complete access to everything I need.
We would end up with a model where the ‘screen’ in the home is non-programmable and all logic and content lives on the network.
The computer as a ‘media player’ has already helped dumb down the masses enough.
Part of the problem is that most companies have this mental block on Web Applications. They think in terms of programs running on an individual systems not using a web browser, and if they do want a program to run on a web browsers they often get the Web Development Team to do it, (Thus many times making the application a big failure due to poor software design, but the interface looks nice though, but not always easy to use, or useful). Also most in house programmers don’t want to switch to Web Services because that means that they will need to think in terms of Web Development. The managers are afraid of Web Services because first they see crappy applications that the Web Development team made, and compare it to the polished applications the Application Development team made (While may not be as prity). Also many managers are unable to evaluate the tradeoffs properly, when looking at a sheet of paper the Desktop App has a lot more advantages over the web App Speed, Fancier Interface, RW access to their own hard drive, links to excel, etc.. vs. ease of deployment and ease of debugging and updates. By looking at the list it seems like Desktop Apps kill Web Apps hands down, and most managers don’t realize how expensive it is to keeps these desktop apps running on these systems.
The flexibility and the speed of web applications always will lower with the present technologies. If you want to create application with similar useablity to desktop apps you must write tons of javascript or flash code. This thing will increase the cost of the development. And in the most cases the web based user interface not better for users then desktop applications. The only cost that you can save the install/update of applications, but with the newest smart client technologies in .NET the cost of update of applications also not too high.
My rusty, trusty Sparcstation 5 with the 85mhz upgrade, a 3d creator card and an optical mouse is still a joy to use. Must be talking about Sparc 1’s or 1k’s or something else.
Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.
We are replacing thousands of desktops with thin clients. We tested this and found it to be MUCH BETTER than having a workstation and PC at everyone’s desk. My jaw dropped when we tested a JAVA terminal and server connected between Florida and the countries of Qatar, Afghanistan and Iraq, there was a barely noticeable lag when dragging terminal windows on the desktop. The latency on this network is 1~2 seconds. When you login remotely without the JAVA terminal it takes about 2 seconds for the letters you type to show up on the terminal. Try it you’ll like it.
You lost control of your data when you were born. If you have a social security number there is no hope of keeping your personal data under your personal control. Putting data on your home computer is like keeping your money under your mattress instead of in the bank. The bank and the ISP have industrial strength security and a vast pool of resources to keep your stuff secure.
You can keep your computer just like the people who keep their Commodore 64 or Atari 8 bit computer. There just won’t be any new commercial software for it and parts will be harder to find as time goes by.
Jonathan is on the right track and is the most visionary COO out there. You should take a look at what Sun is doing. Intel is sh*t*ng their pants trying to catch up to Sun and if Jonathan can keep reducing the development and release cycle times Sun will leave Intel in the dust.
I am changing jobs so I can roll over my 401K into Sun stock. It will be 10~100 times more valuable in the next 3 to 9 years.
V/R,
Technomuse101
Sun PCs Are Outmoded
hmm… maybe I’ll agree now?