There’s a date looming on the horizon for the vast majority of Windows users. While Windows 11 has been out for a long time now, most Windows users are using Windows 10 – about 63% – while Windows 11 is used by only about 33% of Windows users. In October 2025, however, support for Windows 10 will end, leaving two-thirds of Windows users without the kind of updates they need to keep their system secure and running smoothly. Considering Microsoft is in a lot of hot water over its security practices once again lately, this must be a major headache for the company.
The core of the problem is that Windows 11 has a number of very strict hardware requirements that are mostly entirely arbitrary, and make it impossible for huge swaths of Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11 even if they wanted to. And that is a problem in and of itself too: people don’t seem to like Windows 11 very much, and definitely prefer to stick to Windows 10 even if they can upgrade. It’s going to be quite difficult for Microsoft to convince those people to upgrade, which likely won’t happen until these people buy a new machine, which in turn in something that just isn’t necessary as often as it used to be.
That first group of users – the ones who want to upgrade, but can’t – do have unofficial options, a collection of hacks to jank Windows 11 into installing on unsupported hardware. This comes with a number of warnings from Microsoft, so you may wonder how much of a valid option this really is. Ars Technica has been running Windows 11 on some unsupported machines for a while, and concludes that while it’s problem-free in day-to-day use, there’s a big caveat you won’t notice until it’s time for a feature update. These won’t install without going through the same hacks you needed to use when you first installed Windows 11 and manually downloading the update in question.
This essentially means you’ll need to repeat the steps for doing a new unsupported Windows 11 install every time you want to upgrade. As we detail in our guide, that’s relatively simple if your PC has Secure Boot and a TPM but doesn’t have a supported processor. Make a simple registry tweak, download the Installation Assistant or an ISO file to run Setup from, and the Windows 11 installer will let you off with a warning and then proceed normally, leaving your files and apps in place.
Without Secure Boot or a TPM, though, installing these upgrades in place is more difficult. Trying to run an upgrade install from within Windows just means the system will yell at you about the things your PC is missing. Booting from a USB drive that has been doctored to overlook the requirements will help you do a clean install, but it will delete all your existing files and apps.
↫ Andrew Cunningham at Ars Technica
The only way around this that may work is yet another hack, which tricks the update into thinking it’s installing Windows Server, which seems to have less strict requirements. This way, you may be able to perform an upgrade from one Windows 11 version to the next without losing all your data and requiring a fresh installation. It’s one hell of a hack that no sane person should have to resort to, but it looks like it might be an inevitability for many.
October 2025 is going to be a slaughter for Windows users, and as such, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Microsoft postponing this date considerably to give the two-thirds of Windows users more time to move to Windows 11 through their regular hardware replacements cycles. I simply can’t imagine Microsoft leaving the vast majority of its Windows users completely unprotected.
Spare a thought for our Windows 10-using friends. They’re going to need it.
Whenever i have to use a windows install, i make sure to turn TPM off so i do not get winows 11 installed by misstake. It is just an awful product.
Either suck up the monetary cost, pain of retraining and cost of privacy loss to upgrade to Windows 11, or switch OS to Linux/*BSD or MacOS and eat that cost.
There’s no “easy/cheap solution” and it’s not in Microsoft’s interest to create one.
If you’re an enterprise and you haven’t made an effort to figure out the cost/benefit of switching, shame on you. You need to manage your costs and if you are not looking for alternatives to greedy Microsoft then you are not taking care of business.
If you are an individual who values privacy, lower cost, better performance and freedom, then you are either already switched or are ready to do that. If you haven’t made such plans, then you are not that kind of individual.
If you are a “gamer” who HAS to have Windows, either switch to Linux-compatible games or run Windows in a VM you can sacrifice if it gets pwned..
It’s indeed interesting, on how two thirds of Windows users doesn’t want to use the latest Windows version. On top of that a lot of hardware is unsupported and hence won’t ever run Windows 11. So what will likely happen is nothing much. That is Windows 10 users will continue to use Windows 10 for years to come, Microsoft will likely be forced to provide security oriented patches for years to come. As otherwise Microsoft would face bad reputation, due to all the security issues starting to emerge. Considering Windows is already on a rather bad reputation in this regards, that would be too much. So i expect security patches for Widows 10 to be available by Microsoft for at least 5 more years.
Geck,
Almost all of that hardware actually can actually run windows 11, it’s just not officially supported.
Microsoft have long struggled to get users to upgrade and now it seems there are more antifeatures than ever. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more forced upgrades at win 10 EOL like they pulled with win 7 & 8 to win 10, but the lack of official hardware support adds a new twist and I don’t know how microsoft intend to handle it. I think that strategically microsoft may be playing a poker game: encourage as many users to buy new computers and pay for new OEM licenses…the “we won’t support old computers” may be a bluff that won’t be revealed until next year. They might end up offering official support on older hardware to increase market share. If they got rid of the anti-features, more people might actually want win 11 and even pay for that, but this would be at odds with their OS enshitification strategy. :-/
To be fair, many security incidents are actually 3rd party software rather than vulnerabilities caused by microsoft themselves. Crowdstrike is a prime example of this affecting both windows and linux. What do you think the solution should be when there are problems in 3rd party code? Should operating system developers block owners from using 3rd party tools & modifications?
If you buy a car, and have a mechanic install a 3rd party component that goes on to fail, do you then blame the car’s manufacturer? Should you be allowed to install 3rd party components? IMHO this is the same sort of thing.
Alfman,
While that might be true, that “bluff” just made me install Linux last month and I’m not looking forward to install Windows (10 or otherwise) any time soon. In fact, if I decide to replace my current machine, the first thing would be to install Linux on it as well.
darkhog,
Good. Microsoft won’t learn a lesson if users just let them get away with crap. That said, most users probably will 🙁
From some general user base point of view the hardware is unsupported. That is a pop-up to upgrade to Windows 11 won’t ever come, unless Microsoft changes their mind. So that is that. As for security perception, Microsoft even promised to improve, so the last thing they need is another security oriented fiasco. For example two thirds, or half, of Windows installation to be affected by some unpatched vulnerability. Or dropping support and all the years of suggestion on how you should upgrade Windows, due to (your version) being insecure. They can’t afford to not support Windows 10 until it has meaningful market share, at least for another half a decade, any other strategy is naive and won’t work. That is even if Microsoft starts rolling out Windows 11 upgrades free and for all, even then it will take years, for Windows 10 to become of low enough relevance, for them to drop support. If by any chance they really will end support in 2025, then this is likely beginning of the end of Microsoft Windows. I don’t feel they are that stupid.
Geck,
Yes. like I said I don’t know if it’s a bluff.
Clearly, but what do you think microsoft should do about vulnerabilities in 3rd party software/drivers? They’ve moved a lot of drivers to userspace over the years, but some still need to run in kernel. Do you think OS venders should block owners from installing 3rd party drivers altogether? They could do this but it’s not without cons; such a locked down approach encroaches on innovation and owner freedoms.
This isn’t new territory for microsoft. When this happened with windows 7, they started leaning into dark patterns to trick users into upgrading. I don’t justify this, but mention it because MS could do it again to drastically accelerate adoption.
Drastically accelerate adoption means in between 3 to 5 years, at minimum. As for Windows and security, this just aren’t synonyms, it’s unfixable, Windows never was or ever will be secure by design. As for the bluff, it’s not really a bluff. Two thirds of Windows user base is a stronger argument then any bluff could be. Maybe they are bluffing themself? Some internal thing or a joke? Anyway, it’s clearly not working.
Geck,
No, in the past versions the dialog boxes came up schedule updates in the near term, downloads would finish in the background and upgrades would be completed soon thereafter. It happened relatively fast. Some power users may actively block the upgrades, but they don’t make up the majority.
Depends on if you care about objectivity or blame, haha.
In the past Windows users would even result to piracy, to upgrade their Windows, looks like that times are long gone as i just don’t see it. That is the way you described it will happen, for Microsoft to back down and upgrade two thirds of Windows PCs to run Windows 11 in next year or two. IMHO that won’t happen, what they will most likely do is they will extend security patches for years to come. And it’s not like they have a choice here. I didn’t say i blame them for it, i just said Windows is insecure by design. If Microsoft would ever change that then forget about Windows as you know it. Windows is a big pile of legacy and you can’t change that, without killing Windows and saying Windows is something else, completely new. Good luck with that, trying to achieve something like that inside Microsoft.
Geck,
You seem to be ignoring the point though, which is that microsoft doesn’t have to wait for users. Windows already has forced updates, one or more of them could install windows 11 using dark patterns like they’ve already done in the past. This would not take long.
That’s really not a fair accusation though. The windows kernel actually does have a secure design, but when drivers are given kernel access they can do whatever they want. You can criticize windows for allowing users to install 3rd party drivers if you want, but be forewarned that criticizing windows for this means that linux can be criticized for it as well.
I accept this, although I’d go further and say all our major operating systems are a “big pile of legacy” at this point. I would like to see new fresh operating systems become viable and popular, but displacing the incumbents just doesn’t seem very likely. It doesn’t matter whether we’re talking proprietary or FOSS, both camps are highly resistant to change.
Nah, not even Microsoft can use brute force to upgrade significant enough Windows 10 user base to Windows 11 in a year or two, if they tried such a stunt they would likely even get sued. So at least half more decade of security updates it is then, not much Microsoft can do about that. I don’t feel i am accusing Microsoft of Windows being insecure by design. I am just saying it like it is. In the end Windows was never really security oriented operating system to begin with. It was always a trade off in between aspects such as security and being useful as a general purpose oriented operating system. Security was never top priority, they said they will improve on that after the last fiasco, but we all know they won’t. It’s Windows.
Geck,
You can debate whether they would do it or not, but in saying that it would take years to do is purely an argumentative position, not an objective one.
Funny you should say that because MS actually did get sued. It was still probably worth it for them though.
Then be specific! You love throwing out accusations, but you need to do better following through…what exactly are you criticizing as being insecure? And be specific.
Well, then i can simply say the same applies for you, saying that Microsoft could do it in some short amount of time is purely an argumentative position, not an objective one. Rather stupid thing to say, isn’t it? In an ongoing debate. This is something new, Microsoft being in such position, two thirds of Windows user base on Windows version that is about to reach EOL. Anyway, we’ll see if Microsoft will roll out or better enforce Windows 11 in a year or so or if they will instead continue to provide security patches for Windows 10 and to do that for years to come. We both stated our opinions, on what i our opinion is more likely to happen, so lets now just wait and see. As for Windows and security, by design, it would be vulgar to single out anything, you can study decades of it if you want. In general here you have one report from 2024 that states ” inadequate security culture at Microsoft” https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/microsoft-failings-china/ on where Microsoft admits to it. And here you have a public blog from Microsoft CEO from 2024 describing the latest initiative on how Secure By Design is a new commitment and stating that when there is a trade off to be decided in between security and some other priority, security should top the other priority. https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2024/05/03/prioritizing-security-above-all-else/ This reads as a nice PR blob as in reality we all know not much will change and Windows will just continue to be Windows. And secure by design Windows is not, never was and won’t ever be, that ship has sailed.
Geck,
Sorry but you are being ridiculous. They’ve done it before and they can do it again. They literally just have to release an update and it’s done. It doesn’t take long to do that. You have absolutely no basis for claiming it takes years. Your entire premise is dogmatic.
Edit: And to be clear, I’m still waiting for you to provide specific evidence to back your claim that windows not secure by design.
You allege things all the time, but you’ve never provided specifics. Please provide specifics backing up your accusations. You’ve made allegations against windows design and not other microsoft services, so go ahead and back up your claims.
As said, best to wait and see, a year from now Microsoft will need to reveal their strategy anyway. Will as you say Microsoft roll out Windows 11 updates for all, i don’t feel they will, or will they instead prolong Windows 10 security support for years to come, and on how long will it take regardless of the strategy selected. For Windows 10 market share to drop to low enough value to phase it out completely. As for you claiming Windows is secure by design and i claiming it’s surely not. It shouldn’t take long for yours or mine claim to be backed again, and again, and again …
Geck,
I distinctly said I didn’t know what MS would decide to do. If they did however, my point was that it wouldn’t take long to do.especially if they’re not above tricking users as they did with windows 7.
The problem with so many of your accusations is that you keep making unbacked claims and ultimately failing to provide any specific evidence. This patterns happens over and over again in your posts. Why though? Wouldn’t it be better to make claims that you know you can back with specific evidence? Or barring that, cover your bases by throwing in an “IMHO” rather than trying to portray your opinions as objective truth.
I don’t mind having a difference of opinion, but we must not conflate our opinions as facts. Granted this is just a silly debate, but on a wider scale this conflation is dangerous for society and leads to misinformation and propaganda becoming normalized into a Trumpian “facts don’t matter” world. Whenever something is asserted as fact without evidence, we need to step back and ask what the specific evidence is. Your disdain for microsoft is clear, but it doesn’t supplant the need for evidence. Objectivity matters.
It’s more about your modus operandi. No matter what claim i would provide what you would first do is to claim otherwise, after we would engage in endless debate, on where you would not accept any argument, then you would result to insults and at the very end you would even claim that your initial counter claim is not really something you really believe in or are stating it as a claim. So best to not go down that rabbit whole in the first place. On top of that if you are not making any claims, then nothing really to dispute. So long story short, my claim is Microsoft will not roll out Windows 11 for two thirds of Windows user base anytime soon so forget about Windows 11 reaching 90 or 100 percent of Windows market share in a year or two. Microsoft will hence instead need to support Windows 10 with security patches for years to come. Even you now say that Microsoft could do that, roll out Windows 11 to upgrade all Windows 10 installations out there, forcibly. But now you are saying you don’t claim they will do it. So OK, it’s not really your opinion, on what Microsoft will do, you just described some hypothetical scenario. As for you wanting to refute my claim that Windows is not secure by design. Here i can only assume that you claim Windows is secure by design. So a question are you really claiming that? Are you really claiming Windows is secure by design? Or is this just another hypothesis of yours, something not even you believe or claim in the first place?
Geck,
The problem with your narrative is that you’ve been given plenty of opportunities to back your assertions. While I understand you dislike the way I’ve insisted that you back your claims, you not doing so is not the same as me not accepting any argument. How can we be this many posts in and you still haven’t provided a specific reason windows wasn’t designed securely? If you are not going to provide specifics, then it seems fair to point that out, You might accept your own claims without evidence simply because you dislike microsoft, but that’s not reason enough for others to take them as fact. If you want to say it’s your opinion then that’s fine, you don’t have to back it with any proof.
I mean do you claim Windows is secure by design, or don’t you?
Geck,
Come on Geck, your ability to provide specific evidence should not be in any way contingent on my opinion. So can we finally agree your statements were more about opinions than objective truths?
My own view is more nuanced. I would say windows is secure in general. It’s not absolutely faultless of course, but I do think the windows kernel was designed with robust security in mind. For example since the early NT days windows had things like security tokens and access control lists.
https://www.elastic.co/blog/introduction-to-windows-tokens-for-security-practitioners
Unix/linux were downright amateurish by comparison. The ownership/group model was clunky. There were no fine grained permissions. Things that were considered security sensitive needed hard coded root UID checks. Consequently admins ended up with applications running as root. As a former windows admin, I found the unix permission model “as designed” appallingly inadequate. However linux has gone on to evolve since the initial design. There are capabilities, access control lists, containers, selinux, etc. So my opinion is that today, both operating systems can be run securely these days. Usually the weakness is not the kernel, but vulnerable software. And so security evolution has to continue. Containers are increasingly used to provide isolation. There are pros and cons, but it’s one of the next logical step to improving security along with safer languages. My own reason for preferring linux is not security, but because it afford me more freedom and control than windows.
Thanks for confirming you don’t believe Windows is secure by design. You saved us both a couple of days that would otherwise be wasted arguing about things sane people with some knowledge in this matter in general agree about. On top of that and from links i provided above even Microsoft acknowledged it!
Geck,
It’s a problem that you won’t defend your assertion with specifics, but now you are additionally lying to yourself about my opinion. Good grief. that is intellectually dishonest.
So again, yes or no, with no smokescreen involved. Do you claim Windows is secure by design?
Geck,
I’ve been transparent and I’ve already answered this with some of my justifications for what I think. You not accepting my opinion that things aren’t 100% black and white really is not my problem! Moreover you seem bent not providing any specifics to back your assertion that windows is not secure, it seems quite hypocritical of you to accuse me of using a smokescreen.
I mean if you and me and Microsoft all tend to agree Windows is not secure by design, then no need to go down some rabbit hole, on how any of us would claim it is, for the sake of the debate itself. In the end we all agree it isn’t. Some to more extent then others, still. All in all nobody is really claiming Windows is secure by design, that was my initial claim and i feel that we now established any reasonable person with some knowledge in regards to this subject tends to agree. Even you, so cut the BS.
Geck,
There you go lying again. My opinion is that windows is secure by design, but it doesn’t prevent user from using it insecurely. It’s no different than linux in that regard….what is your specific reason to claim it is not secure? Cut your BS and be speciific!!
Finally, after endless and pointless debate you now found the courage to claim Windows is secure by design. OK. I guess there are some people out there claiming that, fine. I can live with that. Some people claim the earth is flat too. What i am going to do here is lets give it some more time then. If the history didn’t teach you otherwise then the future surely will, on how you are being rather naive in your claim. As for extending this debate by trivializing on something, hell no. We made our claims and the history and the future will back them, or not.
But OK, you deserve one, you are a big proponent of memory safe languages, Windows is not written in a memory safe language and likely never will be, unless i guess Microsoft creates something new and puts a Windows sticker on it. So there is one, feel free to trivialise it. Now lets move on shall we. This news is about Windows 10 and EOL and we both made our claims in that regard. This one will be revealed much sooner, in a years time, compared to Windows being considered safe by design by an unbiased and knowledgeable person.
Geck,
Geck I already said it at the top, But you only seem to process statements that are absolutist and have no nuance whatsoever.
What claim specifically? You’ve said nothing verifiable. You’ve dragged the conversation through empty claims and noncommittal assertions. Now want to pretend that the future will back you up after the fact? What exactly is it that you are asserting that you want the future to prove?
If you’d like to end the discussion, that’s fine.
Geck,
So, just so we are absolutely clear, this is your reason for claiming windows isn’t secure? If so then great, I’m glad you provided your specific reasoning, but I’m almost afraid to ask how you align that with linux?
So you are not going to dispute it due to agreeing with it? That should settle it then. Now first things first, lets see if Microsoft will try to enforce Windows 11 on Windows 10 user base in a years time, or not. And if they really can simply afford to leave Windows 10 user base without security patches. As secure by design as Windows is, that should end well.
Geck,
I don’t know microsoft’s plans, I agree it will be interesting to find out.
Regarding security, it was a serious question: I’d genuinely like to know if you would be critical of linux using the same criticisms you have of windows? Because you seem to have a double standard for windows and linux. can you explain why that’s not the case? Or you can avoid the question again.
I don’t know what GNU/Linux has to do with anything here. Likely to serve as an excuse again? On how it’s not Microsoft fault Windows is not secure by design? Similar to like you said above it’s not Microsoft fault but end users fault, that Windows is not secure by design. Gimme a break. Anyway, claims were made now lets see on what the future will bring. Now we indeed are waiting for Microsoft, to do something, it’s their move now. In a years time their strategy will get revealed, We can discuss it further then.
Geck,
It still sounds like you want to be able to get away with claiming windows is not secure without having to provide specifics. Cognitive dissonance keeps you from seriously answering the completely reasonable request to be specific because logically your own criteria would imply that linux is not secure, which I know you won’t have. You’ve subjected me to the “trump weave”, ie going to ridiculous lengths to avoid answering questions, but nobody really wants that. And I can’t imagine that you want that either, right? This doesn’t have to happen by sticking to claims you are willing to heartily defend. Next time!
I made two claims in this debate and i stand by them. History and future will either back them or discharge them as not being accurate. I have no problems with that. You somehow didn’t want to make any counter claims but insisted we should discuss things in depth. I feel that in such situation it is the right thing to do, to first insist to hear the claims of the other party. Especially knowing the history of such discussions. On top of that i said i won’t go down that rabbit hole but still provided you with an example in the end. You didn’t dispute it so there is that. Each and every point and demand from your side was meet. I will even claim agreement was hence meet, time to move on.
Geck,
You are incorrect, I did make counter claims:
1 I completely disagree with you that it would take ms years to upgrade a majority of users to win11 if they choose to push an update that does so. for all remaining win 10 users. I see zero obstacles to microsoft here, but It depends on whether MS are going to stand by their position of keeping hardware unsupport if that was just a bluff. Time will tell what microsoft will do.
2. I also disagree with your view that windows is “insecure by design”. I’ve posted my rational, meanwhile you continue to avoid providing details to back up your side of the claim. The only reasoning you provided, that windows isn’t using a memory safe language, is true, however it rules out all dominant operating systems across the board including linux, so you’ve gone on to avoid the next logical question of whether you think linux is secure.
It’s clear you are avoiding these questions because you cannot answer them without exposing your own biases. So you just do the “weave” instead.
Geck,
Yes, I agree we should move on, but don’t lie about having answered my questions because you clearly did not. How about a simple “we agree to disagree”.
I see, finally, you agree with the reasoning i provided, so this alone disqualifies your claim that Windows is secure by design and hence we agree on it. On top of that if i am a liar, that now makes you one too. I never called you one so i don’t feel i need to apologise for that, you do whatever suits you the most. A word of advice, going around claiming Windows is secure by design and when knowledgable people obvisuly not agreeing with such BS, calling them liars, well. Good luck with that. As for Microsoft promptly upgrading all Windows 10 computer to Windows 11. Good luck with that one too. Both goals will take a few years, one of them likely never to be reached, at least not in terms of Windows as we know it now and always have.
Geck,
No geck, you refuse to answer questions and I don’t agree with you. Let me say it in bold: I DO NOT AGREE WITH YOU. Telling yourself otherwise is seriously delusional.
Yes, you are a liar when it comes to representing my position in good faith, and also you’ve been lying about answering the questions when you blatantly avoid them and continue to do so.
The problem you have with me isn’t lying, but merely that I hold you to your own claims that you won’t back up.
I’ve been telling you since the top that I don’t know what microsoft will do. You’ve already said let’s wait and see what willl happen, so why are you still arguing over this?
You holding me by my claims? Get real. If anything i made you make a claim or two and now lets see on how that holds. I stand by my claims firmly and i feel that both history and the future will back them, both. If not, fine, then i was wrong. Sky won’t be falling. As for your claims, on how Microsoft will upgrade all Windows 10 computers to Windows 11 in a year or two and that Windows is secure by design. Lets see it then. As for you saying that are not your claims, fine, then we basically agree. And as such if i am a liar then you are one too.
Geck,
Yes and you know you it too: You’ve avoided backing up your claim that windows design isn’t secure in almost every post. You’ve also avoided the question of whether linux is secure under the same criteria you’ve used for windows. Naturally these two questions speak to your ability backup your claim and also that you can apply your own rational in an unbiased and objective way, but unfortunately you’ve demonstrated that you cannot for nearly the entire discussion.
I already did…
https://www.osnews.com/story/140993/what-can-windows-10-users-do-once-support-ends-in-october-2025/#comment-10444416
If you truly agree with me, then you must agree that windows was designed to be secure. And you saying this? Otherwise quit pretending that I agree with you because that’s dishonest of you.
I think the secret sauce for Microsoft here is their push to the cloud. Original idea was to pitch that idea to OnLive, a now defunct gaming and virtualization company. I believe that Microsoft wants workstations, (ie their OS) to be hosted, not on your Hardware. From Windows 7 up to 11, Microsoft has pushed your Microsoft ID to be incorporated into the install process and Onedrive as default storage. Not your local media. We all know the woes of Cloud EULAs, security, or lack there of, etc. But since the future of general computing is dominated by Apple and Google, PCs are taking a backseat, to the niche market(ie gaming) and enterprise. I believe enterprises would be taken care of easily through their licensing and support. As to everyon else, imaging us all going full circle back to dumb terminals, paying recurring fees to Microsoft just to function, while your IP, data, etc. would be their property.
spiderdroid,
Apple and Google control mobile certainly. But IMHO mobile devices are terrible for “general computing”, Windows is still the dominant player in that market with MacOS and ChromeOS battling for distant second.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/02/the-worlds-second-most-popular-desktop-operating-system-isnt-macos-anymore/
I feel like linux has become very usable too, but “normal” people are really hesitant to change what they are most comfortable with. It’s easiest to keep using what you’ve always used especially for those already invested in software. Microsoft’s biggest threat might be themselves adding too many incentives for users to justify leaving. This seems obvious, but so far it hasn’t dissuaded microsoft from making versions of windows incrementally worse for users who just want a good local operating system 🙁
Hi Alfman,
As to “General computing”, I meant the small things such as checking your calendar, reading emails, and web browsing. As to productivity, We can both agree that, though doable, its not advantageous on mobile devices, nor easy, as the entire build (ie On screen keyboards, etc) isn’t meant for that and due to my many spelling errors, buggy also. As to Linux on the Desktop, I believe that Microsoft has already adapted to it as MSO365 offer their product on the cloud, to which enterprises need, no matter the desktop OS. But IMO, there’s no replacement for locally installed and run software. I have no patience or budget for subscriptions and the ever changing EULAs that you’ll require legal help to decipher and weigh in on, depending on your IP.
spiderdroid,
Fair enough. I don’t use the same definition of “General computing”, but I agree with the points you are making.
I share your opinion here too. I’m not sure that our preference is the one that will win out long term though. 🙁 As long as corporations are able to convince/coerce a large enough majority of users & developers to migrate to remote data silos & services, the world may become increasingly dependent on them as it becomes harder to avoid their walled gardens. People like us will do what we can to retain a degree of independence, but it’s fighting against the grain.
So, Windows 11 adoption is about one third of Windows users right now. It may be two thirds by the time Windows 10 goes out of support. That still leaves a LOT of Windows 10.
Except Windows 10 is not going out of support. Microsoft and others are continuing to offer support, just for a fee. So on the corporate side, I do not see much pressure to “extend support”. It is just going to be a question of what price each company pays. Microsoft is unlikely to cave on this one as they have a profit motive both for paid updates and, as they are now a hardware reseller, in new laptop purchases. Honestly though, Windows 11 is long enough in the tooth that any desktops still running Windows 10 will need to be replaced in corporate environments anyway. And Windows Server is more forgiving and supported longer. Coupled with available updates if you really need them, I am not sure how much corporate pressure there will be.
Regular folks are likely to just cave and buy “new” hardware. I mean, Windows 11 will be old enough by then that there will be plenty of used hardware that is new enough for Windows 11. For people that want to move to Windows 11 on their existing hardware, the hardware restrictions are easy enough to defeat, for now at least.
The people that will stay on Windows 10 will be the apathetic or the Windows 11 haters. The uninterested will just keep using Windows 10 without updates. No one is going to care. The haters seem likely to find a way to get the updates without paying. Again though, those folks do not represent lost revenue to anybody. So, who is going to care?
As a Linux user, I would love to think that people will move to Linux in droves. I do not see that happening. The one group that I could see making a move are the gamers. While I do not see Microsoft extending Windows 10 support for free much beyond their deadline, we may see some of the game studios pressured into letting their titles run on Linux via Steam ( Proton ). Who knows, this could be the one thing that gets Microsoft’s attention as well. To be clear though, I am talking about Linux getting maybe 15% or less of the gamer market. I am not saying that a 50% of Windows gamers are moving to Linux or anything. Although….if 15% or 20% did, the experience would probably get good enough that it could happen. That would really be interesting.
The two most likely things to happen in October 2025 for those who are still on Windows 10 and can’t/won’t upgrade to Windows 11 is either they just carry on using Windows 10 or they buy a new PC with Windows 11 pre-installed. In the latter case, you do wonder what they’d do with the old Windows 10 PC – I bet most Windows users don’t even know a non-Windows OS could be installed on a Windows PC, so landfill could be its ultimate destination.
As to how all this would impact Linux market share – very litle I’m afraid. Although there’s BS extra hardware requirements to upgrade t0 Windows 11 that we haven’t seen in previous Windows upgrades, I’m expecting any market shift to Linux to be less than 1%. Remember that the vast majority of Windows users have never installed an OS (including Windows itself!) from scratch and very few of them are going to rush to install Linux off a USB stick, no matter how much copium the Linux community might be huffing.
As ever, it’s pre-installed OSes that dominate the market (which is why I was first in line for the Steam Deck – the first consumer PC/console to sell in the millions with Linux pre-installed). Until major OEMs offer Linux pre-installed (and as an option on the same Web page as the Windows version – not tucked away in some random other part of their site), the year of the Linux desktop will never come.
I’m surprised there is no mention of 0patch, which will provide support through 2030. If an older PC runs Windows 10 well, 0patch will get keep it going. I used it on two Windows 7 workstations for three years past the end of mainstream MS support. I have it on my all my PCs now. It’s fast and its micropatches work great.
Seeprime,
Interesting, I always took it as an enterprise only product and didn’t realize there was a personal version of it. That said, it’s not at all clear what the personal users get.
https://0patch.com/pricing.html
I’d expect to pay for their service, and the pro prices seem reasonable, but the page seems to indicate they are excluding security patches from the “personal version”, if so I think they should only call it a “demo” version, and not the “personal plan” since the implication is that personal users are not really being covered (ie vulnerabilities are being left on their system). Maybe I’m misreading it though, their details are too vague.
It looks like the personal version ( free tier ) includes 0-day updates. Not sure I get the full picture either.
I did not mention them by name but I mentioned them in my comment. As I said, the availability of updates from Microsoft and others means that Windows 10 will not really be “unsupported” for commercial users. Between that and the fact that Windows 11 has been out for 3 years already ( it is compatible with hardware 5 years old ), I do not see a massive push for Microsoft to extend free support. Really important customers that push back ( like those using a tonne of Azure ) will just get a discount on the paid updates.
No, it won’t be, mainstream browsers will keep receiving updates until January 2029 thanks to LTSC 2019 and ESU, and most users don’t care about Windows Updates (in fact, they hate them). So, they’ll simply disregard the pop-up warning them about end of support as yet another upsell and continue using Windows 10.
Indeed. In the end it’s the applications moving on that force the upgrades. I have an Android tablet from 2015 that until a few months ago I used regularly with no issues and the only thing that has made me leave it behind is applications with a backend that will explicitly check for new versions of the application and said new versions can’t be installed in Android 6.0.
jbauer,
I’ve encountered this as well. Not on windows 10 (yet, but I know it’s coming). Upgrade or loose out on updated applications. Microsoft deliberately makes the default VS builds incompatible with EOL operating systems. even though the software was originally designed for them. It’s quite effective.
Seeing how almost all games I install on my Steam Deck run flawlessly in Linux, I think I will take the opportunity to migrate my Windows 10 desktop to Linux. Waiting for summer 2025 to actually decide on the distro to favor at this moment. If SteamOS is available for generic installs and compatible with my hardware I may just use that.
This is what’s been keeping me on Windows for home daily driver, the games. But Valves wonderful work with Proton has finally changed that. My games work great and without issues on my Tumbleweed installation. I’ve been on Linux since forever (and got the Steam Deck), but my main home PC has been Windows (7 Pro upgraded to 10), due to games and VR. I’ve been seriously impressed with OpenSuse, KDE 6 (it’s really, really great), Valve and AMD. I’m so happy to finally ditch Windows, hopefully for good this time.
Though, in fairness, it would be real nice if the other gaming clients could get going with proper Linux support as well, with Proton. 🙂
There is a lot of debate here about what is possible and what isn’t, much of it irrelevant to entities the size of MS, Apple, Google and others. Simply because if they hold the will to do something they can move very quickly when needed.
Much of the fear mongering is a repeat of what happened around Win XP, then Win 7, Win 8 and now it’s Win 10, yet here we are rinse and repeat, obviously learning from history isn’t big on the Dev list of agendas.
In my own endeavours, my plans or efforts have been screwed over as much by Linux and Apple as they have MS, none of them hold the high ground.
I literally was about to go the Rufus route to do an install this weekend but chickened out. But that would be a clean install and I cannot go that route. The only requirement my system does not meet is the CPU. It’s an I5-6th gen. It is perfectly capable of running 11 and my system has TPM 2 and Secure Boot, both are enabled. I know the registry hack to get 11 to install but I will not tolerate MS throwing an MS account requirement for login. It’s local, or nothing, or I switch back to Linux or one of the BSDs.
What can you do? Do what you should’ve done a long time ago. Get rid of windows completely!
Thom said it best, “The beatings will continue until moral improves!”
By then the middle-east should be in all out war and china will start considering liberating gaza from the evil clutches of the us empire, after which they will create a history channel and talk about how nethanyahu was evil 24/7 for the next 30 years. Personally, i think out of date software will be our last consideration by then.
I don’t think its just the Middle East :/ And the christian religious now think the so called Rapture is imminent.
I don’t think the sysreqs are so arbitrary, it’s the CPUs with bugs they want to weed out ?
And to make sure TPM2 and Secureboot are on …