Two scenarios for the smartwatch market

Two scenarios for the smartwatch market, put forth by Ben Bajarin. Scenario one:

Apple will easily strongly influence the smart watch category in 2015 and 2016. It is hard to argue against Apple’s vertical advantage and tight control of their entire ecosystem. This advantage undoubtedly will give them a dominance in the early stages of a category. If a number of things play out, we can see them command the category for the long term.

And scenario two:

Another possible scenario is the smart watch category shapes up very much like the smart phone category. Apple succeeds at their goal to acquire the top 20% of the market and rake in the majority of the profits. While Android Wear, or another third party licensable smart watch OS, provides the software platform to the vast majority of hardware companies making smart watches.

I’m currently writing my Moto 360 and Android Wear review, and I don’t think either of these scenarios will happen. My prediction: the current generation is going nowhere. They are cumbersome, finicky, uncomfortable, and unpleasant to use. They solve a problem that’s not really a problem.

While some awesome future technology could change things, the current state of technology is simply not good enough.


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