Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 22nd Mar 2006 19:29 UTC, submitted by rft183
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Member since:
2005-07-06
Actually If you are to believe Gartner they will have much more time than that before Vista will have any major market impact on the market. According to them, Vista will not have more than 10% market penetration two years after its introduction.
I have no reason to doubt the Gartner figures as last year when Microsof ended their win2k support, it was still the most used OS in business in Sweden. If these companies have been good Microsoft customers they should have upgraded to XP by now.
Even Microsoft salesreps have admitted that XP users will have very little to gain from upgrading to Vista, so I guess that the main jump to Vista will happen 2011 when XP is end of lifed.
2011 is a whole lot of Gnome, KDE, OpenOffice.org,.. releases away. Just remember how Linux looked in 2001
and compare how it look now. Then take into account that major Linux venders like Red Hat and Novell during most of that time have had a no intent of making a Linux desktop.
By then there will most likely be much more desktop applications available for Linux. One exampele of such new promising application would be Xaraextreme a very good cross platform graphical application. See http://www.xaraxtreme.org/
The new licencing of qt, will also help as we can expect that many KDE applications will migrate to the windows desktops making the treshold for switching to Linux much lower. What I'm hoping most for is PIM applications like contact that could replace Microsoft Outlook and its Vista replacements. Good windows clients will be esential to replacing Exchange that is a big expense in many organizations. Possible candidates as Exchange replacements would be Hula and Kolab.
Yes, it certainly looks good for Linux.