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Never
XFCE is old; it has been going on for a long, long time and has built its momentum. At one time it was even based on lesstif. So you can see this is not really a DE riding on the tail wave of GTK/GNOME but a DE in its own right.
I don’t think a project that wants to be XFCE to KDE will survive, there was something like that at one time, and it didn’t make it. Take a look here:
http://xwinman.org/
Personally I think the DE market is full. We have KDE (big, powerful, configurable, and a tiny bit like windows), GNOME (almost as big, shedding its power and configurability for usability, and tying to be just a bit like Mac) filing the big positions. Then we have XFCE (small, fast, and a tiny bit like CDE, also fills the spot for lots of GNOME people on less powerful on server systems (ubuntu)), E17 (powerful, fast, and flashy, will satisfy al your hedonistic needs), and EDE (small and windows like, still has some way to go but likely to get some users, those that would use FVWM98, XPDE or similar). Last but not least there is GNUStep, it would probably have no chance in hell if there wouldn’t be MacOSX. There are lots of nice Objective-C apps out there now that could make GNUStep as big as KDE and GNOME once it gets its stride. With all those players there is practically no room no air no food for another DE to have a chance. And there are enough others (ROX, JD4X, Magic Desktop Environment, and so on).
I agree with the fact that there is already a wide range of desktop environment/desktop shell/WM alternatives for Linux, and further efforts should better be concentrated on existing projects than used to start new ones.
However, I think that in the Linux world all these players can well survive - such world has already been characterized by freedom, and the availability of so many choices for desktop/window management is just another sign of that trend.
More than that, I also think existing projects could offer a decent amount of interoperability (and things like freedesktop.org or the OpenDocument standard are made just for that) and focus each one on a particular application context/target user model (i.e. think of E17 as the best candidate for multimedia content management). Or at least, these are my hopes for the future scenario... :-)
There was an initiative that could have delivered something like this. The project was named [url=http://mockup.org/]Mockup[/url], but was canceled (IIRC) when the author joined Novell. This was supposed to be a BeOS inspired desktop based on the Linux kernel, X11 and Qt 4. It wasn't developed as a pure DE however. It was supposed to be a complete system, with the base modified from a standard Linux system, I never quite catched why though.
Creating a non-bloated Qt desktop could be a good idea. I don't quite agree with the other replier, who says the DE market is full. There's always room for creating something better, it just takes alot of effort to get a new DE to a usable state. There's always people that argue that this effort is better spent supporting GNOME/KDE, but isn't that a bit like telling everybody to support Windows?




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I have to say, as a KDE fan with a general preference for QT apps over those based on other toolkits (most notably GTK), XFCE impresses the hell out of me.
Which begs the question, when will we see a DE with the same goals as XFCE based on QT?