Linked by Rahul on Wed 25th Feb 2009 15:30 UTC
Fedora Core Internet News writes about a major mark for Fedora 10 release. Fedora remains the only distribution to publish it's statistics and gathering methods openly and transparently. In any case, they reached 1 million active installations of Fedora Linux 10.
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RE[2]: Comment by Stephen!
by macemoneta on Thu 26th Feb 2009 17:57 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by Stephen!"
macemoneta
Member since:
2009-02-26

Fedora, one of the ~500 Linux distributions reports 12M users. Ubuntu has similar numbers. Netbook sales indicate 30% Linux. Some estimates now put Linux installed base at double the OS X installed base. Microsoft has declared their number one competitor to be Linux, not Mac.

What are you looking at if you think Linux market penetration is insignificant? Market share? That's the number of copies of the OS sold. Since Linux is free, it doesn't apply. The numbers you want to look at are the installed base - the number actually in use. Unfortunately, just as with Windows, this can only be estimated. For example, I have a dozen Windows licenses and a couple of OS X licenses, but all machines are really running Linux exclusively (the installed base).

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[3]: Comment by Stephen!
by jspaleta on Thu 26th Feb 2009 18:44 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by Stephen!"
jspaleta Member since:
2009-02-26

If we could get hard numbers from Xandros/Asus and Linpus/Acer concerning the number of pre-installed linux netbooks that would go a long way to addressing traditional "marketshare" in the sold in a box sense.
Those vendors account for something like 70% percent of all the netbooks sold last year, but we don't know what the split is between linux and XP models.

The userbase estimates for self-installed linux instances are indeed harder. And Fedora is trying very hard to carve out a methodology for other linux distribution to re-use so we can work together to get a global picture across all distributions of what our userbase looks like. There's no secret sauce in how Fedora count users.

-jef

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by Stephen!
by Googol on Thu 26th Feb 2009 19:34 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by Stephen!"
Googol Member since:
2006-11-24

"What are you looking at if you think Linux market penetration is insignificant?"

Sure. I was really only commenting on the comment, well, I commented on, which in turn seemed to find 1 million impressive. However, I am not sure whether that was meant to be ironic or not.

OK, I don't know about 12M Linux installs, but I'll go with that.

So then: if you search for PC sales world-wide numbers, I found 75M for Q4 of 2007, I believe (rounded of for convenience here). Also for convenience, lets assume that is kinda representative and I'll generously round this of by a quarter billion in your favour to make it 1 billion PC sales in the past 4 years (past 16 quarters). Of course, there are vastly more than a billion PCs around.

Now, don't blame me for the maths if I tell you that 12 million out of a billion (which isn't really a billion in the first place) is 1%. But since it is more likely that there are +2 billion PCs actively used out there, that puts your 12 million linux installs at 0.5%. Can you confirm that you agree with that?

Also, who cares about 500 Linux distris out there? Half of them only show up on distrowatch because I made the single download that caused it to be listed there in the first place = forget about most of the ditros, they carry no weight.

0.5-1% is irrelevant, can we agree on that? I have Suse, Ubuntu, PCBSD and Opensolaris here -- that doesn't mean everybody else has, too.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by Stephen!
by h3rman on Fri 27th Feb 2009 11:15 in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by Stephen!"
h3rman Member since:
2006-08-09


0.5-1% is irrelevant, can we agree on that?


No.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by Stephen!
by rbrhood on Fri 27th Feb 2009 18:09 in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by Stephen!"
rbrhood Member since:
2009-02-25

An AT Internet Institute (formerly Xitimonitor) survey gives Linux a 1.2 % share of web users.

http://www.atinternet-institute.com/en-us/internet-users-equipment/...

I don't know who owns AT Internet Institute or whether they have a marketing agenda of their own. The numbers are based on a very large sample of web traffic, but I don't know if they disclose the sites that are monitored. I think it would be easy to get a bias even in a very large sample by selecting certain types of sites.

Anyway, 1.2 % of web users is tens of millions of users, and it is clearly the most common OS after Windows and Mac OS X. It's not irrelevant by any means, it serves as a demonstration to hardware manufacturers that Linux is a viable and low cost OS. The manufacturers are finally taking notice and starting to offer pre-installed Linux systems.

Critics have said that Linux is a toy, irrelevant, about to be overrun by the next version of Windows etc. etc. for as long as Linux has existed. The installed base of Linux has grown steadily all the while, albeit slowly on the desktop. This is how free software on the desktop tends to work: there is no great redesign followed by a marketing push. Instead, different parts of the technology get better all the time and while it may not look like much at any time, it adds up. The parts are now falling into place at an accelerating speed.

Reply Parent Score: 1