Linked by Thom Holwerda on Fri 25th Jan 2013 14:20 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Buried deep within Nokia's press release about its financial results, there's a line that pretty much signals the end of one of the most popular and successful mobile operating systems in history. With Nokia retiring its use, Symbian is no more.
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RE[5]: market share!
by cdude on Sat 26th Jan 2013 13:59 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: market share!"
cdude
Member since:
2008-09-21

Mobile growth like this doesn't happen overnight


First its 2 years.

Second 2 years are a full turnaround circle in mobile where contracts run in maximum 2 years.

Theird in that 2 years Nokia went down from having twice the sells of its nearest rival to having 1/10 of it. From number #1 to not being in the top #10 any longer.

Forth that 2 years where more then enough for Samsung to turn from a second hand manufactor to number 1. And enough for Nokia to be done,

Fifth in that two long years Nokia not failed once but twice! First with WP7 Lumia and now with WP8 Lumia again.

What Nokia has needed since day 1 has been to be in a better financial situation


To continue burning a billion dollar each quarter* till it works out eventually with WP42 Lumia (or not)?

* and sell crown-jewels like your headquarter, patents and firing half your employees.

they can iterate on Lumia and establish mindshare.


How much years, billions of dollars and iterations you need while staying somewhere between 1% and 2% market share (1% Symbian removed) to realize: its not working out! ?

As if HTC's downfall when they switched to WP wasn't warning enough. Sanyo anyone?

Change strategy else all money in this world will not be enough.

Window Phone marketshare in Europe is surging


Yeah, same BS you tell since years. Its declining in all huge markets. China? 100.000 sold units. US? 700.000 sold units. Germany? Half of Q3. Russia? Lost.

That Nokia dumped all there WP7 Lumia inventory for free to italy and brazil to spin the % market share number is typical. Lose million of $ to look good for some minutes and impress simple minds and hope nobody notices when a quarter later its down again.

You not remember that just some months ago you repated here the story that Lumia is a hit in US as shown by the Amazon charts? You not remember your stand its a hit in China and outsells everything else cause Nokia-representatives say so? Come on, don't fall for such cheap PR-tricks again and again, Nelson. Look at the key-markets, the global market share. Be a bit more clever then that, okay?

Edited 2013-01-26 14:19 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 5

RE[6]: market share!
by Nelson on Sat 26th Jan 2013 18:24 in reply to "RE[5]: market share!"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29



First its 2 years.

Second 2 years are a full turnaround circle in mobile where contracts run in maximum 2 years.


Nokia has only been selling Windows Phone for a year. In that year, its more than quadrupled the Windows Phone installed base.

I think Windows Phone 8 was their pivotal release. You see OEMs gaining confidence (HTC coming on board, Samsung forming a product line around ATIV, PC OEMs showing more interest) and carriers throwing more weight behind the value proposition that Nokia can make.


Theird in that 2 years Nokia went down from having twice the sells of its nearest rival to having 1/10 of it. From number #1 to not being in the top #10 any longer.


What does this have to do with their one year of selling Windows Phone? You're a confused individual.


Forth that 2 years where more then enough for Samsung to turn from a second hand manufactor to number 1. And enough for Nokia to be done,


Which is exactly my point, marketshare is a volatile thing. Microsoft has been on top, Palm has been on top, Nokia has been on top, HTC has been on top, etc.

Things change very, very rapidly, as you concede.


Fifth in that two long years Nokia not failed once but twice! First with WP7 Lumia and now with WP8 Lumia again.


I'm honestly wondering what you consider a success. I consider the 920 to be a successful launch. Do you want them to go from 3% to 20% in a single launch, because I'll tell you right now, that's not going to happen. Even OEMs that experience explosive growth don't grow that fast.

Also WP7 Lumias increased sequentially for three quarters. To the extent that they were limited to WP7, it was a very good run. It established some mindshare and helped them straighten out their financials.


To continue burning a billion dollar each quarter* till it works out eventually with WP42 Lumia (or not)?


They increased their cash holdings this quarter. Lumia sales are up. Obviously the investment is paying off. Microsoft spent billions and billion on Xbox until it turned it into a marketleader. I'm convinced Windows Phone has consolidated its staying power at Microsoft and we'll see that continued investment.

If Nokia and their management makes a determination to spend a billion dollars resource wise, then that's on them, but so far, I don't think its leading them off a cliff into oblivion. So as much as you like to keep saying it, Nokia is not dying. In fact they're much farther from death than even a quarter ago.


* and sell crown-jewels like your headquarter, patents and firing half your employees.


And they divested Virtu, shifted a bunch of manufacturing, flatted out a lot of middle management, etc.

I think in the business world its called a Restructuring. And guess what? They increased their cash position, stabilized their burn rate, and faced an appreciation on their stock as a result. That is textbook good management.


How much years, billions of dollars and iterations you need while staying somewhere between 1% and 2% market share (1% Symbian removed) to realize: its not working out! ?


I think the premise of your question is faulty. It is working out. Whereas you said they'd be dead or dying, they are in a stronger financial position.

They can now afford more investment and iteration, until they claw their marketshare back. As much as you refuse to see it, it is happening.


As if HTC's downfall when they switched to WP wasn't warning enough. Sanyo anyone?


HTC is an interesting OEM, they are a reflection of where Nokia would be (except about ten times worse) had they gone with Android.

Samsung is the only one making real money on Android.

I feel bad for HTC. On Android they get shut out by Samsung and on Windows Phone Nokia controls 87% of that market.

Yeah, same BS you tell since years. Its declining in all huge markets. China? 100.000 sold units. US? 700.000 sold units. Germany? Half of Q3. Russia? Lost.


The figure is 100,000 Lumia 920s alone. 500,000 total devices in China. So Lumia sales there are okay, not phenomenal.

I'm interested in where you derive your Germany and Russia numbers from. I wasn't aware Nokia broke down Lumia sales specifically (Only D&S and SD from their financial reports)


That Nokia dumped all there WP7 Lumia inventory for free to italy and brazil to spin the % market share number is typical. Lose million of $ to look good for some minutes and impress simple minds and hope nobody notices when a quarter later its down again.


I think you're running out of reasons to pretend that Windows Phone isn't catching on.

Consider: http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/379486/windows-phone-triples-share-of-u...


Statistics from analyst firm Kantar Worldpanel showed Windows Phone has had the most success in Europe, with a 5.4% market share across five countries

...


The European success is led by a 13.9% market share in Italy, up from 2.8% a year ago.

...

Windows Phone gained 3.7 percentage points year on year, while RIM fell by 9.6 points to 6.4%, Kantar said. Android extended its lead with a 10.5-point gain to 54.4%.



You not remember that just some months ago you repated here the story that Lumia is a hit in US as shown by the Amazon charts?


Actually, I correctly used Amazon Charts to argue that Nokia had sold more than 300,000 in Q2 2012. This was because of an article run here that took Nielsen number and multiplied them by ComScore numbers in a weird twisting of statistics.

It turns out I was right, Nokia sold double that in North America at 600,000. Followed by a 300,000 Q3 and a 700,000 Q4.


You not remember your stand its a hit in China and outsells everything else cause Nokia-representatives say so? Come on, don't fall for such cheap PR-tricks again and again, Nelson.


No, I don't remember saying that at all. If you can find it I'd appreciate it. Nokia is having modest success in China, but not nearly enough.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[7]: market share!
by cdude on Sun 27th Jan 2013 08:02 in reply to "RE[6]: market share!"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

The figure is 100,000 Lumia 920s alone. 500,000 total devices in China. So Lumia sales there are okay, not phenomenal.


Only 920 got sold. Other numbers are from Symbian/etc. All your other comments are on an equal "quality" level. Over and out,

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[6]: market share!
by zima on Fri 1st Feb 2013 22:25 in reply to "RE[5]: market share!"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Regarding "theird" and "forth" point (seriously, learn EN ...or stop posting when drunk) - and you don't see how that is an effect of earlier poor state of affairs in Nokia, long before Elop?

Reply Parent Score: 2