Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 7th Aug 2013 21:16 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless I wrote this almost exactly three years ago, to much debate:

Sure, Apple will most likely still make far more money per sold iPhone device than competitors will per Android phone, but the trend is clear: as much as I love my iPhone, it will be relegated to a ~10% market share figure within a few quarters.

It took a little longer than "a few quarters", but here we are. Android has revolutionised the smartphone market. I'm not particularly happy about that (both Android and Samsung are far too dominant, which is bad for the market and thus for consumers), but there it is.

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RE[2]: Apples vs Androids
by Nelson on Wed 7th Aug 2013 22:06 UTC in reply to "RE: Apples vs Androids"
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I happen to agree. It makes for an interesting case study in how everyone else dropped the ball and how the stars aligned for Android, but it isn't a good measure unless accompanied by stories of developer success and consumer delight.

Microsoft, Google, Apple, et all surely don't spend billions of dollars fighting over percentages and install bases. They fight for mind share, a "stage" to provide their services through, and a profitable ecosystem to make it self sustaining.

I guess the point of discussion then pivots to what is a good way to measure the health of an ecosystem at regular intervals? IDC, Gartner, Kantar, etc probably are so focused on because they provide regular snapshots of something.

Its hard to measure engagement, especially in app engagement, or to gauge consumer satisfaction with an OS as a whole. Its hard to source reliable numbers from developers as well to get a view of the platform in aggregate.

Also it begs the question, how are we even measuring the size of an ecosystem? We focus on shipped market share instead of install base share. We focus on a huge Android ecosystem but include dubious white box devices which don't seem to have a tangible impact on the ecosystem. We obsess over devices shipped over users satisfied. Its a major flaw in how the news is reported on the current state of affairs and I suspect there's a very different untold story.

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