Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 13th Jan 2014 10:06 UTC
Windows

Paul Thurrott on the next version of Windows and the future of the platform.

In some ways, the most interesting thing about Threshold is how it recasts Windows 8 as the next Vista. It's an acknowledgment that what came before didn't work, and didn't resonate with customers. And though Microsoft will always be able to claim that Windows 9 wouldn't have been possible without the important foundational work they had done first with Windows 8 - just as was the case with Windows 7 and Windows Vista - there's no way to sugarcoat this. Windows 8 has set back Microsoft, and Windows, by years, and possibly for good.

With even Paul Thurrott claiming Windows is in trouble, it becomes virtually impossible to deny it is so.

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RE: So it's true... !
by japh on Mon 13th Jan 2014 17:35 UTC in reply to "So it's true... !"
japh
Member since:
2005-11-11

... how much market share has Windows got, overall ? More than 90%? Hmm... they're in trouble then !

Because they will soon be replaced by OSX (7.someting%)... no wait, they will soon be replaced by Linux (1.7%). No, wait, those desktop PCs will soon be replaced by a single Samsung phone running Android 5.x (codenamed "WindowsIsDoomedKat").


I noticed you stopped quoting numbers when we got to android phones. You do know that Android outsells windows by a wide margin already. Devices that often have enough computing power to replace a lot of desktop machines. You don't think that'll do something to shift the balance in the long run?

Already it is entirely possible (thanks to apple and Android) to live a Microsoft-free life. If you tried that 10 years ago, you'd be fighting an uphill battle all the way.

You don't think that losing it's consumer computing dominance will affect windows long term?

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[2]: So it's true... !
by TBPrince on Mon 13th Jan 2014 18:33 in reply to "RE: So it's true... !"
TBPrince Member since:
2005-07-06

I noticed you stopped quoting numbers when we got to android phones. You do know that Android outsells windows by a wide margin already. Devices that often have enough computing power to replace a lot of desktop machines. You don't think that'll do something to shift the balance in the long run?


Stating that those devices are as powerful as desktop machines seems exaggerated to me. I agree that mobile devices are redesigning computing in general. I'd rather say that many people found out that they don't need machines as powerful as PCs. If you need to browse the Web, check your e-mails, get on Facebook, Instagram, Google+ and so on, definitely you don't need a PC. So while personal computing was happening through PCs in until a few years ago, now that's happening through many different devices. So it makes perfect sense that number of PCs might stay stable while PC share of all connected devices might drop. In that sense, I agree.

I think when people talk about demise of PCs they underestimate the fact that most connected devices users are in facts new users, not old users converted to mobile devices. In most cases, if I have a PC (desktop, notebook etc.), I will just add a new device, not replace it.


Already it is entirely possible (thanks to apple and Android) to live a Microsoft-free life. If you tried that 10 years ago, you'd be fighting an uphill battle all the way.

You don't think that losing it's consumer computing dominance will affect windows long term?


Living in a Microsoft-free world to be a prey of Apple or Google doesn't seem an improvement to me. However, as I said I agree that a whole category of general computing can now happen outside PCs. And this is good. And it also good that people can choose their preferred experience, be either Google, Apple, Microsoft and even less common ones.

Microsoft needs to consider that and I think they're doing that. The impact of such changes needs to be understood in a better way because what computing will be restricted to PCs and which one will be addressed by mobile devices is not clear enough yet.

However, people chanting that Windows is doomed actually miss the target. Windows already morphed into something running on multiple devices and Windows brand will not go anywhere soon.

Evolution of PCs is strictly connected to evolution of technology and, in many cases, to the evolution of UIs. touch-enabled UIs are by far the easiest to use so in that sense one might think that users will be switching out of "windows". However, touch-enabled UIs didn't prove yet that they reproduce the complexity of pointANDclick UIs so one might argue that there's still a long road to walk to replace "windows".

Either way, Windows will not go anywhere and it will be what will power your next generation devices.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[2]: So it's true... !
by unclefester on Tue 14th Jan 2014 09:05 in reply to "RE: So it's true... !"
unclefester Member since:
2007-01-13

Already it is entirely possible (thanks to apple and Android) to live a Microsoft-free life. If you tried that 10 years ago, you'd be fighting an uphill battle all the way.

You don't think that losing it's consumer computing dominance will affect windows long term?


There is a vast amount of (very expensive) critical software for architecture, engineering, mathematics, science and business use that only runs on Windows. It is unlikely to ever be ported to any other platform. MS could charge $5000 per licence and customers would still pay.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[3]: So it's true... !
by lemur2 on Tue 14th Jan 2014 10:48 in reply to "RE[2]: So it's true... !"
lemur2 Member since:
2007-02-17

There is a vast amount of (very expensive) critical software for architecture, engineering, mathematics, science and business use that only runs on Windows. It is unlikely to ever be ported to any other platform. MS could charge $5000 per licence and customers would still pay.


Only those few customers who had such a specialist application. The vast majority of users are very well catered for with a modern Linux desktop. A number of organisations have now moved to desktop Linux, it is entirely possible to do these days.

If a larger percentage of non-specialist desktop users started running the Linux desktop, as some organisations have already done, then the vendors of specialist applications would start releasing Linux versions.

Indeed, some have already done so:
http://www.bricsys.com/en_INTL/bricscad/features/
http://www.bricsys.com/common/news.jsp?item=502

Reply Parent Score: 2