This could be a decisive moment for the software market. Microsoft’s big cash cow is the Windows/Office combo. If you look through the company’s financial reports, you’ll see that profits come mainly from Windows and Office. This means that Windows sales support the existence of other products and services. An unexpected drop in demand of Windows could cause a domino effect. At the moment this seems highly improbable because Windows desktop market share is over 90%, even though there is an increasing interest in MacOS X and Linux.The next Windows version, named Longhorn, should be released during the fall of 2006. Obviously Microsoft is trying to keep people interested by annuncing every month, or more often, some news about which features will be included, or that will not be part of it. There is also a parallel strategy to keep open a stream of money until Longhorn is released: Windows XP Professional x64 Edition. Microsoft hopes to fill this 18 months long period with an updated version of Windows XP.
So, could anything unexpected happen? Could any competing platform shake up this market?
Linux ? No, I don’t think it could be called a desktop for “mom&dad”. At least not yet. And there are various barriers to its widescale adoption in businesses.
And we need something unexpected. A surprise.
Let’s try to correlate some recent news:
January 11, 2005
During his keynote at San Francisco MacWorld, Steve Jobs confirmed that Tiger (MacOS X 10.4) will be released in the first half of the year.
February 21, 2005
“Intel Corporation today announced the availability of five new processors for desktop computers with support for 64-bit memory addressability through Intel Extended Memory 64 Technology (Intel EM64T). Intel plans to ship EM64T on versions of every newly introduced Intel desktop processor.”
March 11, 2005
“Apple will officially announce Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger’s release at an event in early April and will begin shipping the operating system within two or three weeks afterwards, Think Secret has learned.”
March 31, 2005
“Microsoft said that Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Standard x64 Edition, Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Enterprise x64 Edition, Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Datacenter x64 Edition, and Windows XP Professional x64 Edition all had been released to manufacturing, in time for a scheduled release in late April.”
April 11, 2005
“According to Microsoft and Intel estimates, 2005 will be the year when, for the first time, the vast majority of new server hardware and high-end workstation shipments will be 64-bit capable.”
So, let’s immagine that…
April 29, 2005
Apple releases Tiger.
Apple releases Tiger for PC.
Nobody knows if this is going to happen with the Tiger announcement, but when a MacOS X release for PC does come, and I’m sure it will, it will be a surprise for everyone. We know that Steve Jobs likes secrets, and such an important move will be kept secret at any cost, even if it means moving the development labs to Mars. So let’s proceed with our speculation…
Announcing MacOS X availability for PCs 18 months before Longhorn would leave Microsoft bewildered, because they will be ready more than a year later, and without some innovations already included in Tiger. Do you remember what Bill Gates said on Longhorn and WinFS ? Well, Tiger includes Spotlight.
The first result would be sales competition with Windows x64, and an unexpected challenge to some easy money Microsoft plans to make.
Releasing Tiger only for 64bit processors would be good strategy. It would:
- Take advantage of 64bit optimizations included in Tiger for G5 CPUs.
- Avoid performance and compatibility problems with older PCs (x86-64 cpus were introduced in 2003 by AMD.)
- Focus the marketing effort toward people that are already planning to buy a new computer.
- Focus on systems with a medium-high price to stay in the range of Apple’s hardware prices.
- Oblige people with a 32bit PC that want to try MacOS X to buy a new computer: hoping they choose Apple’s hardware too.
But there is another advantage. Apple will have more than 2 years to work on the next MacOS X version, and it could be announced in the first half of 2007, just 6 months after Longhorn availability, putting Microsoft on yet another catch-up cycle.
If Apple hopes to take any marketshare from Microsoft, catching them unawares will be an essential part of that strategy. Microsoft has proven itself to be tenacious when under threat, so it would be in Apple’s best interest to keep pressing, and not allow Microsoft to hold the title of the “newest and most modern OS” for very long. If Apple could pull this off, it would have the double effect of gaining a new customer, but also luring away Microsoft’s valuable early adopter customer base. And where the early adopters go, the steady stream of regular users who listen to them will follow, as older PCs are decommissioned and replaced with 64 bit ones.
When a “switcher” chooses to install MacOS X on his PC, three things will happen:
- Apple’s market share grows up (percentage)
- Microsoft’s market share decreases (percentage)
- Apple gets money for the license (Microsoft had already got the money)
But when a new PC is bought, and the buyer could choose the OS, and if he chooses MacOS X something different will happen:
- Apple’s market share grows up (percentage)
- Microsoft’s market share decreases (percentage)
- Apple gets money for the license (Microsoft gets nothing)
If this scenario occurred the market would truly be shaken, and for 18 months whoever bought a new computer could choose between a brand new MacOS X Tiger, or a 64 bit version of plain old Windows XP (originally released in 2001).
And you, what would you choose?
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Federico, I’m sorry to say, but I guess you’ll be one sad fellow on april, 29th.
Not that I don’t like your idea, though.
My bad, so why is Desktop Linux not ready for mom and dad again?
I expect we’ll see a preview of 10.5 next year at the 2006 WWDC. So Apple will already have been showing off what’s coming next by the time Longhorn is even shipped.
Now, if Apple could only get a bug in their ass and roll out some substantial updates to their stale powermac line. ๐
I will not trade MS domination for Apple domination. I want sane OS market with a bit of MS Windows, Apple/OSX, Linux/*BSD and Sun/*IX.
Steve Jobs wouldn’t even bring up a PC version of Tiger at a meeting. Nor would Apple executives allow it.
Apple hardware and software are symbiotic. This is the reason their products work so well.
Introducing the spam of hardware from PCs would break the great functionality and ease of use Apple provides.
Nice idea, but no.
Apple is a software company. There OS is there to sell their hardware, not the other way around. It woud be foolish of them to jump into the PC OS market with out producing PC hardware to keep the hardware profits going. And the move would piss of IBM, drop the sales of Mac hardware as people would run and get mythically cheaper Dells to run OSX and find out they need 3 times the RAM and a decent processor, people will try to run OSX on vodoo card and wonder thy quartz performes like a dog, and what will they do? complain to Apple. That is negative publicity they don’t want and Apple will stuck in the same boat as Linux, vendors will not give them drivers so they don’t piss off Microsoft.
Apple doesn’t want to go down that route. They want to flog their shiny Mac hardware and they’ll go to extreams to do it. (Like making an OS that kicks window’s ass)
All round it a butyful dream but nothing more.
Another guy who is not in touch with reality. Mac OS X on PC is not gonna happen. As depressing as it may be, GNU/Linux is the only serious contender to Microsoft’s desktop monopoly (don’t get me wrong, I’m a KDE user myself and I love it). Linux is slowly getting there but it needs more polished, more influence, and more support.
Tiger dosn’t run on x86 machines. Windows is a) user friendly b) well known already for sometime c) runs on any x86 cpu that you can get off the shelf. Tiger is a) user friendly b) somewhat well known but fairly new compared to MacOS before it c) only runs on Apple hardware. So in reality a switch from Windows to Tiger would require a big hardware investment not just a simple reformat.
Firstly, sure, Apple almost certainly keeps OS X able to build on specific configuration x86 hardware. It ensures the product is cross-platform but the effort involved in adding drivers for the bewildering number of x86 cards and chipsets out there would take years.
Secondly, look at the various predictions and trends. Apple is leveraging the iPod experience to let people know there’s something better. They’re not telling people to try Tiger or Panther, they’re telling people to try Mac and the increase in Mac sales indicates that’s where they’re heading.
They’ve already given x86 users a cheap way to experience OS X before a big switch with the Mac Mini with the other Mac’s finally offering good price/performance thanks to the G5.
If Apple didn’t release OS X for Intel when they were in such a weak position before the G5 you can bet they’re not going to now the Mac sales are picking up and they’ve finally got something good to offer.
Windows marketshare (where I live) is not dropping. Rather it is rising, now when people retire their old Novell systems that was popular here. They want standardised, easy to use client systems that everyone already is familiar with. Replacing Windows with Mac OS or Linux here and there goes against that.
But they would need to sell PC hardware then, because as we all know PC hardware sellers are very reluctant about not pre-installing an OS and even less pre-installing anything other than Windows
The easiest way to get an article with lots of hits and comments is to post Apple-Wintel flaimbait. Fanboys from both sided crawl out in droves to defend their platform of choice and to insult the other camp.
I would welcome MacOSX for x86_64 any day.Superior OS on superior (open)hardware carefully selected and assembled by me myself and i.
I’d love to believe what the article says, but it won’t happen anytime soon, or at all that is.
This will not happen simply for technical reasons.
Sure, you could grab the BSD base of OSX and make it work on x86…What about that old PCI ethernet adaptor that I bought for $15. How about that sound card I have in my computer?
Fact is, there is way more hardware on x86 than mac that needs drivers. It’s not happening.
What I’d really like is for Apple to push OpenOffice.org as a part of their product offering.
They should just release an x86 OSX already.
I think the biggest surprise will come once QuickTime 7.0 becomes more established over the next few months.
Apple know they’ve lost the desktop battle. But the war for the platform is still wide open as technology converges and culture evolves. Apple understands this. Microsoft only seem to care about market dominance, but this has led them to become as lumbering as IBM before them. I’m sure it won’t be long before some innocuous upstart starts screwing with Microsoft from the inside …
Competition may just give MS the bite in the ass they need. So rather than spending $200million for a Start Something blitz to generate fake word-of-mouth they will actually compete again. But right now, for as long as Windows OS ships on every new PC, and every business has to pay the CAL tax, what incentive does MS have to compete? The can survive very comfortably on inertia alone right now. Perhaps they will be taken by surprise indeed, just as MS displaced Novell. But I don’t think they’ll be surprised too much by Apple. Not unless the surprise is cool.
I’m also betting that Longhorn will not be as innovative as the effort to put a man on the moon, even though MS says the development cost is the same.
why should Apple waste time and money on OpenOffice when they can create native cocoa apps that will take better advantage of the frameworks and the OSX platform?
It is more likely we first will see:
1. Google OS
2. Adobe OS
And by the way. Linux will never make it unless it goes the Apple route and becomes a BRAND. We, users, are sick and tired of having to assemble, install and maintain the “Windows and Linux component-concept-chaos”. We want computers that just work as a whole – like our automobiles & TV boxes.
Nerds are dead, Install orgies are dead, hardware upgrades are dead. These concepts belong to the past.
Times have changed
Nerds are dead, Install orgies are dead, hardware upgrades are dead. These concepts belong to the past.
Times have changed
So who innovates the MacOSX OS if nerds are so called dead?A lot of MacOSX dev’s got their hands dirty by experimenting and performing the “concepts belonging to the past” amongst other things so you the end-user doesn’t have to worry a bit.
There is no such thing as a “mom & dad” OS, if I understand that expresion as a metaphore for clueless, technofobe users correctly. Technically savvy moms & dads of the World forgive me – I know a lot of you who are definitely not clueless!
Besides, all users claiming to be clueless and proudly bragging about how despite their utter ignorance their preferred OS magically empowers them to accomplish the most complex tasks imaginable without actually knowing anything “about computers” are the same people who do it in narrow, repetitive way, with absolutely no tolerance if something “strange” happens. I call this the Elephant Trail use of computers!
Nothing wrong with that, but you can have this sort of Elephant Trail way with virtually any modern OS, not just MS Windows. Hell, I even remember most companies 15 or so yrs ago had secretaries happily typing cryptic MSDOS shell commands to start whatever they were starting. If they not had them written on post-it notes, I could have sworn they were some sort of hacking wizards. Of course, once they got a mouse in their hands they immediately transformed back to std. clueless users blinking at Windows like that pumpkin carriage in Cinderella. After some basic training they were back in “hacking mode” ) but God forbid somebody moved an icon on the desktop!!
Again nothing wrong with that – I am just saying there is no such thing as absolute user friendliness or a “mom & dad” OS – it depends on “mom & dad” and what they are doing!! Of course I am talking here office setups and those need intelligent sysadmins anyways, regardless of OS!
“Linux ? No, I don’t think it could be called a desktop for “mom&dad”. At least not yet. And there are various barriers to its widescale adoption in businesses.”
Really ?
New Software run on old hardware , is cheaper , safer
and run on X86 and PPC :
Lets show the weakest link :
http://images.linspire.com/linspire5.0intro4-6-5.swf
lets show the rest :
http://www.lynucs.org/index.php?screen_type=1&screen_id=14040713564…
http://www.lynucs.org/index.php?screen_type=1&screen_id=19546620303…
http://www.lynucs.org/index.php?screen_type=1&screen_id=15327223504…
Can you be precise about whats missing ? Your inputs is needed ๐
Well, he was assuming neither mom and dad had a PhD in computer science. Now if they do, it’s pretty ready.
That said, Linux Desktops (KDE, Gnome) works pretty well once installed. Not much harder than windows. If you really need never to add any hardware and don’t have a root account you can use it without risk to do word processing and such things.
Now.. having using linux for years (and nearly stopped recently outside servers) I can tell you that sooner or later, you’ll be wanting to patch your kernel for something to work. Which then will probably break something else.
The day mom’n’dad can download a .dmg (disk image), double click to mount it and drag the app inside to the Applications folders and it works, then I’ll get a linux desktop for my parents.
Lets show the weakest link :
http://images.linspire.com/linspire5.0intro4-6-5.swf
—
haha, that running guy from Linspire reminds me of the little guy in AIX’s SMIT. I wonder if he falls on his face too when click-n-run can’t resolve a dependency?
So who innovates the MacOSX OS if nerds are so called dead?
They become SW-workers (ala Auto-Workers). The rest, i.e. we users, have quit. We do no longer meet in the “computer garage” over at Joe-XP every other Saturday morning fixing, maintaining and installing. We are bored stiff to death by computer related issues. We only want to USE computers, and most of all we really don’t want to know what’s under the hood. Computers just have to work, no more no less. Work, just work.
“The day mom’n’dad can download”
What ? download ?
Buy Hardware :
http://sub300.com/info.htm
http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.gsp?product_id=3504708
http://www.linspire.com/featured_partner/featured_partner.php?sent=…
http://www.yellowdoglinux.com/
Buy the box online :
http://www.linspire.com/lindows_storefront.php?own=no
or at a store near you …
I would welcome MacOSX for x86_64 any day.Superior OS on superior (open)hardware carefully selected and assembled by me myself and i.
That’s the problem. The people here can be trusted to actually build a machine that won’t take out the power grid. The problem is with all the fans of the bottom-of-the-barrel hardware that are going to kludge together the cheapest of the cheap, and then run OS X on it in the supposed conviction that “they said it would run on an Intel” and then be surprised when it doesn’t.
Tiger on Intel would probably finish off Apple hardware. Steve is not going to let that happen. Phil Schiller would probably walk out the door the day before he announced it.
To say nothing about Jonathan Ives.
It’s a pipe dream. Rid yourself of the concept, it’s not happening. People here will have the knowledge to force OS X to be installed on an Intel [or AMD] but it’s never going to work like it’s supposed to and I don’t really have to say what Apple is going to offer in the way of support, do I?
I’ve seen some screenshots of the cow. This will change drastically as they near the Gold Master stage. Still, I’m not bowled over by what I’ve seen sofar. There MUST be more to it than that or a great many people are going to be tangibly disappointed.
It’s going to be a steep learning curve, again, it still looks like it’s been built in a 1950’s Kolchoz in the Sovjet Union. It does nothing for me.
I think they have meetings in Redmond where they say: “Anyone has any ideas about what features we should put in Longhorn?”, then they clunk a lot of stuff in their interface builder wizard, attach code to it and go “Voila!”.
I want to see the good things in Longhorn, I really do. The “everything I do is perfect, everything you do sucks” argument is rubbish, everybody here can argue way better than that.
I’ve only seen a few screen shots of the cow of course, there’s tons of other functionality in the system no doubt, but if it’s a reasonable representation… it’s just not there. Longhorn compared to OS X is simply an embarrassment. What it does, and very effectively so, is to show us exactly how far ahead OS X is. There is nothing on the planet today that is on that level of sexy.
Or at least the author must think so to put out such a troll of an article!
“I wonder if he falls on his face too when click-n-run can’t resolve a dependency? ”
dependency ? you click on the software you whant everything is done automatically , you dont even need to mount it , upgrade are the same thing click on software it upgrade and install itself.
There is a new GNU/Linux version with thousands of improvment and complete and fully useable release every month from many Distribution :
http://www.distrowatch.com
and unlike proprietary software and BSD and Windows , everyone share improvments ๐
what you saw 1 month ago is already old …
I was making a joke. I’ve never used Linspire and I don’t plan to as long a Apple stays in the business of making computers.
I do use AIX at work though, and the guys does look very familiar.
What ? what ? instal ? thats so Apple or Microsoft ๐
You dont even need a Hard drive anymore to instal it :
http://www.frozentech.com/content/livecd.php
“as long a Apple stays in the business of making computers. ”
Note to self : for up and coming Hardware war : take out Apple by buying whats lef of it.
The real key to widespread adoption of any operating system by the masses ist pre-installation.
As long as it is more expensive to buy a bare laptop than one with windows pre-installed, most people will stay with what comes shipped because they are not knowledgeable enough to install the software.
Ease of installation is no issue in Linux any more, at least not more of an issue than MS Windows. The fact that Windows does not NEED to be installed is it’s key advantage. Once this monopoly gets weakened there will be a level playing field.
Just imagine, you go to a computer shop and want to buy a new desktop computer, and the clerc asks you:
“Which Operating System do you want: Windows for 50$ without support, Windows for 250$ with support, Linux for 5$ without support, Linux for 80$ with support, OsX for 30$ without support or OsX for 200$ with support.
Advantage of Windows is that most people have it, Linux also comes with lots of useful applications included, OsX has the best user interface”
You decide, and the clerk tells you:
“No problem, please wait while your system is copied to your harddisk.”
You go from the shop with the system of your choice without having to worry about drivers and installation at all.
I am quite sure the operating system sales numbers would be much more even than today.
Man, you have to have a PhD in distributions before you can even begin to select one to download.
“It gives you tons of choice!”
Of course it does. How are you even going to sell that to a corporation if they don’t know there is a roadmap for further development of the flavor of the month?
Not dissing Linux, but between Mandrake, Ubuntu, Suse, Linux, BlackHat, WhiteHat, RedHat, TopHat, FcucktHat and LookAtHat, how on Earth am I supposed to know which of these is even close to being a nice and quiet, stable and reliable unix distribution?
Help me, man. I’m scared!
Apple would have to talk to hardware manufactuers to get drivers ready and that would have leaked already.
Apple will continue to try to hold on to it’s 2.5% marketshare and Linux distros will continue to try to put together a desktop operating system with the cobbled together mess of various apis, libraries, and random utilities that comprise a Linux operating system.
OSX on x86 is the only hope for a decent desktop, mainstream, Unix operating system, but it’s probably not gong to happen. Apple needs to sell hardware
Linux will inch along at a snail’s pace in it’s penetration of the desktop market, but it’s too factionalized to make a big impact in this decade for mainstream use. Desktop linux’s development model is way to chaotic to make any impact. There’s not even a standard toolkit.
” a PhD in distributions”
just the willingness to try …
“how on Earth am I supposed to know which of these is even close to being a nice and quiet, stable and reliable unix distribution? ”
All of them are … GNU/Linux
There is no real real reason for running OS X86. Even if Apple ports some of its own Apps, there would be virtually no apps at all. No apps no users. As simple as that.
Steve will not allow OS X to run on the cheap Walmart PCs. That’s not his style. Apple earns jut too much from ther Hardware.
Hell already froze over when iTunes for Windows came out. That is not going to happen again.
Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit outta my hat – Dream on bullwinkle! And to the person that asked:
Q. So why is Desktop Linux not ready for mom and dad again?
Because it doesn’t work with new computers and that’s a fact! I won’t even mention the lack of support for new hardware, someone say sound card, or was that graphics card I heard, either way, until hardware makers start writing equal drivers for linux as they do for MS, linux will never be ready for the mainstream desktop!
All tiger is going to be for the majority of computer users is a sneak peek at the features they’ll be getting in longhorn when it ships 15-24 months down the road.
OS X while very nice does not have what it takes to overrun the market simply because of the company behind it.
GNU/Linux while getting better is still not close enough to windows in terms of usability and software availability to win over the masses.
I am waiting for a few other surprises:
** iTunes for Linux: Linux is growing up, and getting serious. Linux users today are neither nerds or leet kiddies, but perfectly normal people. People who want to buy music online. None of the current mainstream music shops caters to Linux. If Apple suddenly brought up a top-quality Linux port of iTunes (and Quicktime 7), they could take over huge parts of the music market on Linux before the competition catches up. If they ever do.
** Strategic alliances with business software makers. Apple must get into the corporate and government world. If several big prodiucers of corporate software suddenly promoted Apple, things could get very interesting.
** Video store: Once Quicktime 7 is out, it is time for a movie store in iTunes.
PS: OS X on Intel has been done to death. It won’t happen, and that is good. MS has permitted the huge junkheap of low-quality hardware to grow unchecked. They catered to cheap customers who will buy junk and then moan endlessly about how bad it is. Part of Apples appeal is that they refused to compromise on hardware quality.
8% of the planet own a desktop computer
16% of the planet as acces to computer and the internet.
12% of the desktop world wide run GNU/Linux
7% run Apple
72% run Microsoft
9% run the rest
we havent started the hardware war and your already scared …
3 days until tiger is unleashed, 15 days before all its improvments are included in some form GNU/Linux
Apple just won’t release OS X for x86. Ever. It won’t come, it would be stupid for them.
And, apart from that, when someone installs OS X on his PC, Apple’s market share won’t increase, but its install base. The market share increases when more people buy Mac OS X, regardless of whether they install it afterwards or not.
Q. So why is Desktop Linux not ready for mom and dad again?
Because it doesn’t work with new computers and that’s a fact! I won’t even mention the lack of support for new hardware, someone say sound card, or was that graphics card I heard, either way, until hardware makers start writing equal drivers for linux as they do for MS, linux will never be ready for the mainstream desktop!
Hardware manufacturers shouldn’t be writing drivers for Linux/BSD/whatever, they should document their hardware, i.e. give the specifications such that the Linux/BSD/whatever folks can write their own drivers for it.
One thing that needs to be remebered is that Microsoft Office is a international standard (OpenOffice 2 is look great btw) and if Apple release Mac OS X for x86 or x86_64, then Microsoft will probally cut off Office for Mac OS X as soon as you can say Windows!
I think we’ll first see the release of Duke Nuke ‘m Forever.
What about Windows on PPC like their embedded thing on that wannabee-console marketleader xbox360. Might that bring PPC to the masses and what will it bring for intel and amd?
I wish OS X would be avalable for x86 someday, but I don’t believe in it.
On the other hand, there’s the Darwin-x86 project.
Maybe it could be done…
Taken from http://developer.apple.com/darwin/:
The Darwin 7.0.1 Installer CD will boot and install Darwin on Macintosh computers supported by Mac OS X 10.3, as well as certain x86-based personal computers.
Tiger has already been announced, for Macs only.
If Apple was to release Mac OS X for x86, everybody would just use the hardware they already have or keep buying PC hardware to use with Mac OS X and so Apple would be left selling only an operating system and applications killing most of their hardware business. They would be left competing directly against Microsoft as an operating system vendor, with Microsoft already dominating… not a so great idea.
They also probably don’t have the resources to support all the PC hardware and bring Windows developers to develop for Mac OS X instead – or in addition to – Windows.
In fact they have already addressed the problem of widening their potential customers base. Not with Mac OS X for x86, but with the Mac mini. It allows people to keep most of their PC hardware and get Mac OS X. It also lower the entry price to Mac OS X.
They have ported QuickTime and iTunes to Windows, they could also port iWork or iLife to Windows if they would like to. I don’t see them doing it but that would make more sense trying to sell the OS for x86.
Mac OS X can certainly easily be ported to x86 but that’s probably so that they can switch to x86 in THEIR hardware in case their current processor supplier wouldn’t be practical anymore.
I don’t see them releasing Mac OS X for x86 in general.
I used to know a person few years back when OS X was first released. He claimed that he had a bootable CD of OS X running on Intel hardware. Now I never saw this bootable CD, there are three things that made me believe him.
1) OS X is a product of NeXT which once ran on x86 hardware.
2) The kernel and the Core Foundation runs on x86 hardware.
3) iTunes looks excactly the same as the Mac OS X version.
Now I think that Steve will never release the OS on intel no matter what. And one more thing. What is wrong of being second or third in popularity ? I love Apple hardware and software as it is.
I don’t see why so much hope about apple getting Microsoft’s market… How can we have the right of choive if the leading company controls both software and hardware? If they are not open to work if other companies?
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like MS way of doing things… But I believe Apple’s way is even more scary…
(Yeah, that’ll be so good if the “capital is THE important thing” side of these companies aren’t so strong and monopolistic and we could really choose between their products and also have real standards…… Well, we can dream…)
never have the letters R.O.F.L. ever been so relevant.
They have 25-30 BILLION in reserve. That will last a wee bit I would think.
That’s funny, Ubuntu supports way more of my hardware out of the box than windows. I’m not saying my parents could install either one, but unless they made a SATA floppy driver the windows installer wouldn’t even be able to find the hard drive! NIC same story, sound… Onboard and Audigy2 both automagically installed by Ubuntu, half an hour and three reboots in windows.
My mom and dad are as computer illiterate as anyone. (In fact, my old man just made the switch to a $10 Pentium from his Tandy 286.) FACT: Whatever’s on the computer, they’re gonna use, and not have a problem. They’ll be able to click the word processor button and the internet button. That’s all they have to do, right?
Desktop linux is just as ready for my P and M as windows XP is… certainly windows95. The thing is, nobody installs a new OS. Regular people don’t do it. They might upgrade, maybe, but overall they’re going to eat what they’re given and say thank you can I have some more.
Apple has committed itself to PPC and still has two, er, three platforms to care about (Altivec-less 32-bit PowerPC aka G3, Altivec-able 32-bit PowerPC aka G4 and 64-bit PowerPC aka G5). I can’t see ’em extending support to yet another platform which is binary-incompatible with the rest (see BeOS).
Does anyone remember the Apple Clones? Somewhere around OS7 or OS8, Apple let certain companies build Mac clones. This did not help Apple one bit. Some of the clones were cheaper than an original Mac but sells didn’t do much for Apple’s market share.
Even though OSX is a better operating system, I do not believe selling it on cheap hardware would help Apple.
Steve Jobs likes Apple providing the whole experience. When you buy Apple products you are buying a Way of accomplishing tasks not just hardware and software.
I am wondering why Apple has not released a digital camera or video camera. iPod goes with iTunes. iMovie goes with XXX. iPhoto goes with XXX. Where is the Apple experience for those?
jobs would die before he let apple become a software company.
Apple can’t compete with the big companies. Apple lost the OS wars, and they will lose the mp3player wars so they won’t try to build digital cameras. That would be ridiculous.
Apple can’t compete with the big companies.
Apple is currently the biggest laptop vendor out there. I guess dell isnt a big company, if apple can compete with them.
and they will lose the mp3player wars
you base this on a yearly increase of ipod sales?
That would be ridiculous.
yeah, redicules does come to mind…
I had high hopes for the G5 but I think Apple is losing ground again. AMD and Intel have now released dual core processors and Apple still can’t get a G5 inside a laptop. They should just cut their losses with IBM and contract with AMD to use Opterons on the Macs.
> I am wondering why Apple has not released a digital camera
> or video camera. iPod goes with iTunes. iMovie goes with
> XXX. iPhoto goes with XXX. Where is the Apple experience for
> those?
I guess that the competitors on the camera market already have better established products than it was the case on the mp3 player market.
we’ve all speculated (wished, dreamed) of Apple to become an OS maker instead of hardware vendor but its not going to happen. Sad but true. I wouldn’t doubt it if they even cease production of all desktop computers and only make Powerbooks, miniMac’s, and iPods (eventually creating their own type of Palm device iPod).
as for this comment someone posted: “My bad, so why is Desktop Linux not ready for mom and dad again?”
The answer is it lacks a killer app for the mainstream. Every school, and every college REQUIRES MSFT products. What they really require is stuff in Word in .doc format which until OOo 2 beta wasn’t up to snuff. And since OOo/StarOffice still doesn’t have grammar checker it still can’t answer the MSFT/Office or (IMO better WordPerfect) call.
What would be awesome is if WordPerfect Office made a linux port again but since the Open Source crowd wants everything on Linux Open Source and free that’s never going to happen again.
In short, the open source crowd is what keeps *nix from being mainstream. So it remains a hobby/niche os and could even go extinct.
I love my Mac. It works great for me.
I don’t know why you think that a company has to have the majority of market share to be an effective business. Apple and Microsoft are businesses. They desire to sell enough products to make a profit each quarter. I would not want Apple to change the way they do things now just so they can have the dominant market share. I only wish that more people would take a look at what a Mac could do for them…especially if they are displeased with their Windows eXPerience.
I would not want a person who loves their PC to try Mac OS X only to get on a chat board like this to complain about it. If you’re going to switch from Windows to Mac OS X, look at it with an open mind and be a little flexible.
Some people like vanilla ice cream, some like chocolate ice cream, and some just don’t like ice cream. Deal with it. AND GET FREAKING SPELL CHECK!!!!!!!!! I can’t even understand what some of you are trying to say…
Uh, yeah. You’re what is commonly referred to as a friggin’ idiot. Yes, I am aware of your magical, ironclad “G4s suck” argument: it’s stupendous. There’s no way around it. I mean, what with your extensive experience with Macintoshes, you ought to know!
The x86 mobile chip? Which one? And how is a chip that slows itself down to save power a superior item when it comes to getting something done? Oh, I forgot: PC zealots don’t get anything done; they PLAY GAMES. Uh-huh.
And to dismiss Apple’s market share in the portable music player market? BRILLIANT CHOICE. I can’t wait for your dissertation decying the Great Myth of Gravity, too. Should be fascinating.
It’s a damn good thing your parents pay your bills. Otherwise you’d go hugry.
Doubt it would ever happen, if it did though..
I would literally run down to Best Buy and a copy immediatly.
Its easy – clone it!
Topdesk for expose’ @ http://www.otakusoftware.com/topdesk/
Objectdock @ http://www.stardock.com/products/objectdock/
and finally
FlyakiteOSX @ http://osx.portraitofakite.com/
You install these three apps and booyah.. instant OSX clone (theme)
the dock is very responsive, every icon is replaced, everything works and you have your windows apps too.
Bar that, I’m a go buy a mini…..
This article should have been posted on April 1st …
Even if these fantasies of porting Mac OS X to the x86 could be true, and I would assert that Apple would not do so because it would pillage their hardware market and earn them very few converts in the long run, the announcement could never be a secret.
Apple would have to let developers know months, if not years, before such an announcement was made public. They would need this time simply to prepare their software for the new OS. Apple would also have to have an extensive testing programme, simply to avoid the criticism of poor hardware support (which is one of the biggest, legitimate, problems with Linux today).
No. No such conversion can be done in secret.
adsl156.brico.com is talking out of his ass.
His comments are some of the stupidest and lowest ones that i have seen on this website.
This article is so flawed.
1) Why would anyone buy MacOS for the PC if Office,Photoshop,and millions of binary applications will not work? The only thing more limiting than that will be owning a Mac on PowerPC.
2) Why would Steve Jobs destroy his profit base by undermining his own business?
3) Why would Steve Jobs destroy Apple’s “leetness” factor? Once it becomes more common, everyone’s just going to dump MacOS because it will be just the same old thing like Windows.
4) And finally, Apple can’t just wait 6 months and release a better OS than Microsoft. Microsoft is spending billions over many years developing in secret. They are probably already way ahead in the game than Apple. If it was just as easy as waiting and releasing, I’ll just wait 6 months after Intel and AMD release their next gen cpu’s and then release mine and I’m quite sure it will be better because I waited.
Anyways, this has had to be the stupidest article I ever read. If the author wants MacOS so badly, just fork over the cash and buy MacOS.
I just want to put forward the following anecdotal evidence for what it is worth. My 5 year old daughter announced one day “I prefer Linux”. She then proceeded to reboot from XP into Linux, started up OpenOffice, and type in her usual sentences.
I did NOT teach her to use either Word or OOWriter, and it appeared that she was equally comfortable with applications and navigation under both XP and Linux.
So I think (I am an associate prof. of CS), that while mom and pop might experience difficulties with Linux, their children or grandchildren can easily make the transition.
Hi,
Apple is not a software company. True! I wouldn’t not swtich totally from MS ot Apple. Even if Apple has such a nice product. I just hate the fact that ppl think they are so much better than PC. People YOU ARE SO FREAKING WRONG! I am an Apple user, I do my Publishing on my G5. So? Tiger runs on PC, not natively but it runs with 3rd party software. What software well PearPC. Long time ago it was impossible to emulate PPC, now it’s possible. It’s taking for ever eventually we will get there. I don’t want Apple to become available for pc. It crashes on it own hardware, imagine on 3rd party hardware, it would be a disaster! Apple computer are not more expensive than PC, that is a fact. I spent more on software on a pc than my Mac. Don’t believe me, well you could probably ask me how? Well i got iWork for $99(CND)and it does what i need. Even to do my publishing. You pay 3 to 4 times for Office 2003 on a pc. Plus you can’t create PDF from any source, so you will need Acrobat 7 Pro, wich is alot more expensive. If you are on a Mac you have the choice of saving as PDF. CONTINUE>>
I would say that Apple has a great product. Well it’s market share is doing very well. that is if no one finds a way to compete face to face with the iPod, and it’s iTunes… but someobody will figure it out. I hate apple evangelists, they think they are so smart. Smart ppl are open and love to challenge try different things, and then talk. I use Linux, great product needs more support. Microsoft is here, and is here to stay. That Apple comes with the best OS ever, even like that they will never take Microsoft down. They had the chance long time ago. Microsoft share might go down, they will find a way to make it back up. This is like AMD vs Intel. I hate to say this but sometimes we need to realize that even if both are great companies, they have different stategies. Apple has it way of bashing Microsoft, and Microsoft just tries to deliver something that works and that will work even on an old pc. You got to give them credit, they are not the best. At least they don’t go around making fun of Apple. Even if Apple claims that there system doesn’t crash hahahahaha trust me it doesn. And it freezes and it goes funny… it’s created by human beings…c’mon so is Windows!
So this is not going yo happen, this article just isn’t happening!
You shouldn’t project your personal ideas and impressions on the population at large. In other words, you don’t speak for users, you speak for yourself only.
I personally don’t think that geeks are dwindling in numbers. To the contrary, looking at kids and teenagers, it seems to me that more and more of them are getting interested in CS and related fields. These kids were born with PCs, technology isn’t intimidating to them.
That said, you can easily have a Linux system that “just works.” Very easily, in fact. Of course, if you like to tweak and tinker then you have to be ready to face the consequences, but that’s true of any OS.
I think we’ll continue to see an increase in *nix systems (including Mac OS X) as the next generation takes over. In any case, I haven’t seen any studies or polls that point to the contrary.
Give me OSX for the PC. I’d happily buy OSX for my AMD64 machine in a heartbeat. I’ve played with OSX on my mother’n’laws iMac and I really like it, just wish Jobs could slide a bit and release for the x64 pc platform.
Well that’s just me.. I know it’s never going to happen but there are always wishes and dreams…
My bad, so why is Desktop Linux not ready for mom and dad again?
You haven’t met my mom and dad. Mac OS X is hardly ready for them.
its open hardware?
so I guess I can get the specs for all the hardware in a PC and then create my own drivers for them and even decided to build my own hardware? No? well then it is not open .
Desktop linux’s development model is way to chaotic to make any impact. There’s not even a standard toolkit.
Neither is there one on Windows…
OS X is pretty damn close….
My mom and dad has a windows PC and I got a call from her every day because of a problem she had… I made her get an emac when her computer finally died
(it got badly infected with adware and spyware and she never could figure out how to run the software to get rid of it…. good for me.. I got an extra 19 inch monitor, 512 MBs of RAM and a hard drive out of it… I let my brother take the rest for his F’s PC which needed to be upgraded badly.)
now that she had an emac, the only time I here from her is when I call her to see what is going on…
Is a Wine-like app that offered up 100% (or near 100%) compatability with Windows apps. If that isn’t possible, not even an x86 port of OSX would persuade me to switch.
Linux is starting to take a big bite out of Windows’ market share. IDC and others are projecting Linux on 15% – 20% on all desktops by end of the year. Many people I know have just recently switched to Linux including myself.
With the new OpenOffice 2.0 coming out I don’t think there are still any reasons to use Microsoft Office. We moved to OpenOffice here on all the desktops and most of us like it quite a bit more.
There is no doubt that Mac OS X would sell well initially, everyone wins right? Apple sells a a lot of OS’s, everybody buys cheaper computers. But that is just the short term. In a few years Apple is a shadow of it’s former self, cutting back on development to try to maintain profitablity. Intruducing elaborate copy protection schemes to reduce piracy.
Right now Apple can ignore piracy for two reasons. Every copy of OS X runs on a computer they built and made profits off of. As a result, they can look the other way. Second, the Apple user base is so loyal, that almost all are willing to pay Apple’s relativly low price for OS upgrades, because they believe in the company. Unfortunatly that type of loyalty does not exist in the mainstream. People have long fed their software appitiet with “free” copies of everything they want especially OSes. They are not going to line up and pay Apple to keep them up.
Apple is on the right track. Make their product distintive, and provide the best experiance increase market share to the 20-30% range buy grabbing all the people that are willing to pay for what they need and make as much money as if they had 100% of the total market (profit margins are better than market share, they are slowly increasing market share) I suspect they will be at 5% by then end of this year, and around 10% when lonhorn rolls out. But their profits will have nearly caught MS and they will be the healthier company.
That is bets for everyone, Apple users and Windows users. Without Apple to copy, do you really like where MIcrosoft leads?
yeah.. we all have switched at some time or another to Linux.. then we got sick of the maintenance and now relegate it to server work.
Speak for yourself. Windows requires more maintenance than Linux. Even a XP SP2 install will degrade over time, as experience has taught me.
…. you’re about to start a flame war with comments like that… be careful… I don’t know what do you mean by “serious”, if you’re talking things like “doing some serious-paid-work” I guess you either haven’t ever used OSX or Windows or you never did anything more than text editing in your office.
8% of the planet own a desktop computer
16% of the planet as acces to computer and the internet.
12% of the desktop world wide run GNU/Linux
7% run Apple
72% run Microsoft
9% run the rest
we havent started the hardware war and your already scared …
And I suppose you have source to back up these numbers, right?
3 days until tiger is unleashed, 15 days before all its improvments are included in some form GNU/Linux
Yeah, in some pre-alpha form that will be finished two or three years if not abandoned before. Even resolution switching doesn’t work properly (the max refresh rate of lower resolution are locked to the max refresh rate of the highest resolution). F/OSS is getting better but the “it’s already better” attitude is hurting the movement since people buy the hype, realise this is lies and won’t come back.
The collapse and bankruptcy of Apple would shake the market, all right, and that’s what we’d get, quickly, w/ Tiger for PC.
For Apple’s part, they’d get a drastic drop in hardware sales, drastically expanded costs (since they’d now be supporting generic junk hardware like MS tries to do), LESS hardware support (couldn’t use existing Mac or Windows drivers), and rage from all the developers who (if they chose to play at all) would have to buy new machines and rewrite every line of code to support a brand new processor. And no, giving us Cocoa for Windows back (while it would be wonderful) is not the answer to that.
Users would have a brief euphoria (cheap computers that aren’t saddled with Windows!), followed by the realization that none of their existing software would work, and any new stuff that appeared wouldn’t likely be of decent quality for a few years. Many of them would then install Windows on the new hardware they bought so they could use it.
The _only_ winner would be MS. I’d have to say I’d probably choose anything but Apple, on the theory that Tiger would likely be the last release of the MacOS.
the max refresh rate of lower resolution are locked to the max refresh rate of the highest resolution
Are you sure about this? I’m pretty sure I can change the refresh setting of my display.
Is the refresh range correctly set in your xorg.conf file?
I have to agree with you about the numbers posted. Some seem a bit exaggerated…In a fight, it’s important not to overestimate your strenght, or underestimate the opponent’s.
It will never happen. There is no benefit in it for Apple. Zip. Zilch.
Just say that Apple surprises the globe with PC-OS X.
What’s going to run on it? Photoshop? Nope. MS Office? No, sorry. Apples software? Perhaps, but…why would the folks that use Apples applications want to run them on the PC? If they use them, they already have them on Mac OS. You think they want to buy new copies? That’s a great idea! Buy new hardware, and all new software at the same time! AGAIN!
It won’t run Mac Classic applications at all…nope, sorry. So, that legacy software is DOA.
Which motherboards and such are they going to run on? Which of the gazzilion cards and peripherals is it going to support? “Wow! Apple just release an advanced operating system that has no applications and doesn’t run on commodity hardware! They code named it ‘BeOS’!”
If they ANNOUNCE they’re porting, then Apple may experience the Adam Osborne Effect, where consumers decide to wait for the new version vs buy the current version. I mean, why buy a new Mac now if the PC version is coming out in 6 months — best wait and see, meanwhile Apples sales drop through the floor.
Finally, the whole secrect thing. There isn’t even a hint in the rumor mill that this is going to happen. We all know that there is probably an Intel port within Apple, just because we know that NextStep ran on Intel before. But not just the OS group needs to know this, but the Applications groups, the Marketing groups, the CD Production groups — EVERYBODY has to know about this, Steve can’t do it himself.
And nobody is talking about it — none of the developers, no one. Not a whisper.
It ain’t happening, it ain’t gonna happen, and, in fact, Apple doesn’t NEED it to happen.
#1) Apple is quite profitable and has no reason to completely reinvent the way they do business.
#2) Steve Jobs has spent the last 30 years selling high quality, expensive, full computer solutions to people willing to pay. He got the boot for going overboard at apple, went on to found NeXT and did the exact same thing, with a similar result. Went back to apple, and solidified his position with the emac. Seeing how virtually everything the man has ever been involved in has the same general idea behind it, its kind of wierd to think that he would change now.
#3) One of the reasons OSX rocks so hard is that they dont have to deal with cheap and buggy hardware. The greatest strength of windows is that it will run on anything out of a bargin bin. OSX in direct competition with windows would be putting it in the worst possible place to compete, in an arena that caters to windows strengths.
#4) Apple sells a complete experience, that was the idea behind the company from day one, and is what shows through in their most successful products. OSX is only a piece of that.
To sum it up: Apple does things COMPLETELY differently then microsoft. Apple has ALWAS done things completely differently, and has been around for alot longer. Currently, they are amoung the most profitable tech companies. They have zero incentive to completely change the way they have been doing business for the last 30 years.
Think of microsoft as a volvo, and apple as a rolls royce. A volvo is enough to get the job done, and is quite cheap. A rolls is for someone who loves cars, and they will pay a premium for the experience a rolls royce gives them. Two different approaches, two different markets. And before the flames start, I am not saying that a volvo is worse then a rolls, im saying the two are for completely different kinds of people, and that rolls putting out a low end, econo-car would take alot of work for the company, and chances are, wouldnt hold a candle to a volvo.
Apple actually said in one of the conferences with analysts that they have the option of running Os X on X-86 in case the PPC goes nowhere. I would believe this is what they would use in case MS decides to threaten Apple by withholding Office for the Mac.
If that were to happen, Apple can release Os X for X-86. TextEdit & iPages can already open Word documents. FileMaker can open Excel docs. Keynote opens PowerPoint files. Bye bye Ms Office!
Yes, it can be done. But does Steve Jobs want to do this?
The only drawback with releasing Os X on X-86, I can think of, is that for the most part, the PC hardware just sucks-I mean visually. For e.g., laptops with the functionality of Powerbooks are very heavy and thick. The so-called high performance chips consume a lot of electricity and generate too much heat -hence X-serves preferred in many institutions for setting up supercomputer clusters (they can save a bundle on energy costs alone)
Mac users have been spoiled by good looking hardware complemented by the most advanced and, at the same time, easy to use OS and software. It will be a hard sell to the faithful to go out and buy a cheap looking PC to run such a fine OS.
More interesting would be if one would be able to run Os X and XP simultaneously and natively on the PC or Mac.
We can all dream, can’t we?
In any case, nice article. Anything is plausible.
That is one of the main reasons why opendarwin exists…
First, let’s get this outtat the way: no way I’ll see OS X x86 in my lifetime.
That said, NeXT did run on x86, so I’m almost positive that there are x86 version os OS X in the Apple labs running fine.
One thing I think people are overlooking is the fact that everyone thinks that Apple has to support a billion hardware configurations – they don’t. Pop open any Mac (incl. a Powerbook) and you’ll see some standard components and chipsets. We know that Powerbooks both run ATI and Nvidia chips; Hard drives are off the shelf; DVD burners are OEM, Apple re-branded; Memory, can sometimes be hit or miss, but in theory, it’s the same as PC ram. So what do you have left?
Mobo, maybe hd controller, and USB/Firewire. Apple could require a specific configuration for those that wanted to run OS X on x86. This would seem right in regards to the philospohical differences with Windows/Microsoft needing to support every config on the planet. And let’s face it, M$ needs to support mostly the cheap junk (and buggy drivers) and Apple would probably not be hurt much by specifying more high-end parts, which would place it more expensive than some PCs, but just a little or even with Macs.
Of course, I’m sure that (at least initially) there would be any SMP support and there might also be the NUXI (big-endian/little-endian) issue with certain apps and file formats – but who knows, maybe not. PowerPC’s are bi-endian so maybe this is all already worked out deep in the OS.
I remember the days of the PowerComputing clones and as soon as Jobs got back, that was one of the first things he killed. So while anything’s possible, Apple is first and foremost (for now) a hardware business, so they’d have to find a pretty good reason to go x86.
Bottom line, it won’t happen (again). But if it did, the spec would be tightly controlled and wouldn’t allow for the cheap junk that is M$’s hardware headache.
>but when a MacOS X release for PC does come, and I’m sure it will…
Okay, I’m really not trying to be a jerk here, but do people who write for OSnews (Federico Biancuzzi) actually understand much about operating systems? OSX on pc is impossible as explained quite well by Will (IP: —.ded.pacbell.net)
Porting OSX basically renders the last 10+ years worth of programs written for MacOS worthless. I mean, how did you think programs written for powerpc architecture were going to work on x86? Elf dust? Sunshine and rainbows? Al Gore? Ignoring the obvious driver compatibility problem, who wants to use an operating system (aside from hobby os’s) with little to no programs written for it?
The thing that made OSX viable was a little strategic planning from Apple. It was called Carbon. As soon as OSX was released, I could already use about half my programs nativley, and the rest worked decently emulated in classic (and much better as later versions came out). It worked because it was on the same hardware. As OSX became more widely accepted, people made the transition to Cocoa. Thats not the case when it gets ported to a different architecture. As evidenced with PearPC, it is certainly possible to do hardware emulation, but by no means viable. There is no possible scenario in which Apple could port to x86 and overtake the market let alone survive.
Theoretically (OS “allegiances” aside) who would buy Windows XP, the clear market dominator, ported to an Apple Mac G5 when hundreds of thousands of x86 windows applications wouldn’t work on it?
why not go the other way?
Apple sends a new Mac (with Dual Core G5 of course) to Microsofts PC Design Competition (http://www.startsomethingpc.com/default.aspx) an receive 125K USD for it.
MS and Apple decide to establish a joint venture to create a new OS, based on Windows NT, together for the new machine.
They call it OSX/2 ๐
I think my bullshit posting is much more realistc than the original article here
It make absolutly no sence to port OS X to X86 or Windows to PPC.
The OS market (as a single porduct) is very limited.
MS makes the main money with OEM contracts and professional users (companies) which pay a yearly fee to use the software.
Apple makes the main money with Hardware.
There is no need for both to change that.
I couldn’t agree more on that, these hardware maufacturer being slaves to Microsoft and Apple (not so much of slaves we have seen the support they give) really sucks. It about time hardware manufacturers did their job and do not pick sides. Wake up guys, it’s about time Linux got some support from ATI and Nvidia, this whole scenario sucks.
the linux nvidia drivers rock, its ati who doesnt seem to care about their linux userbase.
But what eye candy it is! I guess film makers, audio engineers, musicians, publishers, and just about every other creative type uses Macs just for its beautiful interface.
NeXT ran on Motorola 68030/68040 proprietary hardware, not on x86 !
So far for history class …
“But they would need to sell PC hardware then, because as we all know PC hardware sellers are very reluctant about not pre-installing an OS and even less pre-installing anything other than Windows”
That is not true everywhere. In this country the vast majority of desktop computers are built by your local shop or by a small factory. If you know what you are doing you can always choose which OS you want, or none at all.
If you want a no OS PC you can get one in most countries.
OS X includes gcc. This means that a 64bit application for a G5 could work on x86_64 with a simple “make build”.
BSD people know that. Take a look at NetBSD: 1 src tree more than 40 platforms.
So you don’t need to “port” your applications…