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Let me ask myself: if Silverlight, Flash and Java RIAs are so much better than traditional one, why isn't everyone switching to such technologies and they still invest into HTML+JS?

Answer is simple: because modern RIAs cannot be indexed! As you might have noticed, most websites rely on search engines to drive users to their pages and search engines cannot index Flash, Silverlight or Java content (yes, they can index a SWF file but that's not enough for a RIA). So those websites which don't rely on search engines (because they're way too popular to need that), will switch to an advanced web application (you don't need a search engine to visit Ford, or Coca-Cola, or Ferrari and so on...) like Flash. Those needing users from search engines will stay HTML and try to provide a better experience by using AJAX because they need their pages to be indexed to get more users.

So where's the dirty secret? Here it is: Google must assure that developers will keep creating RIAs using HTML + JS because that will protect its search engine and, obviously, its advertising division, which is what drives 99% of Google revenues.

We have no doubts that Google is number 1 in search engines and nobody has doubts that it will stay on the top, unless they commit suicide or... unless rules change. Ask Microsoft or Yahoo: it's not that they cannot create a good search engine: both of them have resources and technologies to do that and I can say both of those search engines aren't that far from Google perfection. Yet Google is making loads of money and they aren't.

Google will stay #1 for the very same reason for which Windows will stay #1: because they've been the first "good one". And once you are the first good one, you just need to play conservatively and don't bet too much in a single move: you will stay on top. That's what happened to Windows and that's what will happen to Google SE.

However, should the focus move from HTML to RIAs, the game will reset and positions will blend as Google might be the top player for HTML indexing but things could be different when you start indexing RIAs because then people who control platforms have a very very big advantage. And Google doesn't have ANY platform to control.

So when a search engine will start indexing RIAs, Google will need to move and do the same but this time other companies won't allow the company years of free ride: they will all start the very same second. Maybe Google will emerge again but maybe not...

A Google browser to rule them all So that's why Google released Chrome: it must prove that HTML+JS is still a good platform to invest and delay any other framework adoption. If they can succeed in pushing HTML+JS further, their near future will be bright because of dominance of position.

But if the market happens to move to different platforms, Google will have to struggle to stay on top and, without any platform to control, it won't be easy.

It's evident that Chrome's release that the browser is all about defending Google current market. For example, many complained about lack of extensibility and minimalist UI but that's not a surprise! Google doesn't care at all about you investing your time in "extending" Chrome... it's not Chrome the problem but rather the application in it. They don't want you to provide disconnected code, they want you to code Web applications. You want to provide something "fancy"? Do that in JS. You want to provide some kind of utility? Do that in JS. At max, use Gears to provide disconnected functionalities but stay HTML. I won't mention, as many emphasized, how difficult it will be to have an ad-blocking extension for Chrome and you can easily understand why.

Take Mozilla and Firefox: Google poured lots of money there and has a strong relationship with FF so one might think Google could have "influenced" Mozilla to bring it where Chrome is. But if they moved to release their own browser was because their priorities were different than Mozilla's.

And their priority was basically to provide a better JS environment to keep developers investing into JS and HTML.

Look at me, look at me !
I'm sure there will be a very few people reaching this point. This article was sooo long and for sure sooo boring. But for those of you who were so brave to read up until here, I want to play the magician and (boldly) anticipate the future with my crystal ball.

Remember when Steve Ballmer said in a interview (and later, in a memo to MS employees) that Microsoft might be slow but they have resources and time to be number 1? Well, you might not like him but he's no fool (isn't he, Steve Jobs? How come Exchange support appeared on your iPhones?). So when he (humbly) said that Microsoft lost first search engine war but would emerge in the long run and that they're going to change the very whole way you look at search engines, I don't think he was boiling his supper.

In my opinion, in 2009 Microsoft will announce a revamped version of Live search engine, which will be able to index RIAs. They will probably provide an open API that RIAs can use to feed content to index (and will leave that open not only to Silverlight but to Flash and Java too) and then use some kind of token value to pass each other, in a way SE can later tell RIA which content user wants to see. And they for sure embed such new SE platform inside .NET and Silverlight, in a way some indexing can happen in auto-magical way, the very same way ASP.NET controls can be turned into AJAX-enabled ASP.NET controls. Dreams? We will see...

If they succeed to do that, they would open a break in Google dominance and, most of all, will weaken JS position in RIAs development, which could open new possibilities for more advanced platforms and, in case of Microsoft, for their Windows Server systems, which are extremely interconnected with .NET and Silverlight.

If that will actually happen in 2009 (it's not a matter of "if", it's just when but search engines have to move from where they are now to incorporate new stuff), I'm sure Google will sit down and watch what happens but not for long as they cannot afford to loose a inch. I'm sure they're full of statistics and if those stats will show that RIA websites will increase beyond current limit, they for sure do a couple of things: first, they will release Android VM for Windows (and possibly other OSes) in order to have a platform they can control; second, they will enable (because I'm sure they already considered this option) their search engine to index RIAs.

As for me, I just hope it will happen in 2009 so I will be able to put a nail into coffin of HTML and move on. Hell, I've been waiting for this since 1998...


(Notice: the bulk of this article was written before Google released Chrome. That event only confirmed my view and this article has been adapted to include that)

1. There's More Than a Browser War, Page 1
2. There's More Than a Browser War, Page 2
3. There's More Than a Browser War, Page 3