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Well, if Ubuntu ever stops being based on Debian, then I would agree that Debian has a problem. However, I don't see that happening in the near future. The fact that Linspire and Mepis are _indirectly_ based on Debian is to me a moot point. They are still implementations of the Debian System.
It's hard to say anything definite of the usage stats of non-commercial distros. Nevertheless, it looks like most of Ubuntu's users come from somewhere else, not from Debian. It's also possible that some Ubuntu users want to check out the "mother-distro" once they've played around with Ubuntu for some time. And Debian has a solid (and well-earned) reputation as a very reliable server distro.
There's DistroWatch popularity stats that doesn't show decline in Debian's popularity:
http://distrowatch.com/stats.php?section=popularity
And there's the two-years old Netcraft report that shows growth for Debian:
http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2005/12/05/strong_growth_for_debi...
And then there's the recent news that Hewlett-Packard makes good money by selling support for Debian. This probably wouldn't be possible if there weren't a lot of people using Debian. ;-)
http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3661481
Member since:
2006-06-26
What exactly happens at the moment? There are "nice" distributions that used to be based on Debian - well, they are now based on Ubuntu. So this "reference implementation" thing is somewhat fading away ...
Debian _is_ a very usable system. What I mean is: Does it still attract new users? Isn't it true that Ubuntu takes away a huge chunk - even now with Dapper for servers? And isn't Ubuntu on its way to substitute Debian (tho somewhat impossible since it's based on Debian itself)?