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"My point simply is that the number of people for whom FreeBSD fits as a desktop system is going to decrease."
To simplify, I just divide "people for whom FreeBSD fits as a desktop system" into two parts: The ones who need eye candy (this includes 3D desktop as well, allthough I don't consider it as completely useless), and the ones who don't. For the first part, Linux surely is the better choice. KDE, Gnome, Compiz, Beryl et al. are designed for Linux primarily, they work fine here, along with the drivers for ATI or nVidia. Modern Linux distributions don't force anyone to get the hands dirty editing configuration files. The other part will be fine with PC-BSD and DesktopBSD. The better educated ones will use FreeBSD on the desktop as they did for years, setting up their system with the non-mainstream software that is the best solution for their individual needs. I may include myself here: I use FreeBSD at home (along with IRIX) and at work (along with Solaris) as a desktop OS. Even my boss does, and he can be considered quite computer illiterate. :-)
Finally, I think your statemend (or assumption) is correct. More and more people concentrate on eye candy, and this is not FreeBSD's main playing field.