Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 10th Sep 2012 14:51 UTC, submitted by MOS6510
Apple Written by Scott Cleland: "With so many fanboys spinning Silicon Valley history, it's sometimes easy to forget about the real chain of events that led to the ongoing Apple-Google thermonuclear war, how the romance turned to hate. This timeline presents an interesting case about why, despite patents and prior art, Steve Jobs had plenty of personal reasons to despise Schmidt, Page, and Brin." Cleland has a very, very good point; quite coherent and well-reasoned... That is, if you haven't got a single shred of historical sense and completely and utterly ignore the 30-odd years of mobile computing development that preceded our current crop of smartphones. It's hard not to be reminded of how certain groups of people dismiss millions of years of fossil records because this record inconveniences their argument. In any case, a comment on the article answered the question properly: "Jobs was a businessman. He was angry he was losing money. Simple."
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RE[2]: Losing money?
by jared_wilkes on Tue 11th Sep 2012 04:00 UTC in reply to "RE: Losing money? "
jared_wilkes
Member since:
2011-04-25

Make this comparison in another 10 years. If Apple still exists by then.


You do understand AAPL could lose 50% of its value and would still be 50% more valuable than GOOG, right?

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[3]: Losing money?
by kwan_e on Tue 11th Sep 2012 08:07 in reply to "RE[2]: Losing money? "
kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

"Make this comparison in another 10 years. If Apple still exists by then.


You do understand AAPL could lose 50% of its value and would still be 50% more valuable than GOOG, right?
"

Yes, but AAPL could easily lose 50% of its value.

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[3]: Losing money?
by TM99 on Tue 11th Sep 2012 08:55 in reply to "RE[2]: Losing money? "
TM99 Member since:
2012-08-26

"Make this comparison in another 10 years. If Apple still exists by then.


You do understand AAPL could lose 50% of its value and would still be 50% more valuable than GOOG, right?
"

And only a fanboy would try to compare these two companies. They are not in the same market. No matter who makes the hardware/software, Google's business model is safe and shows steady future growth. They are not dependent upon 'fads' or popularity. No one can compete currently with their services. Could it change? Perhaps. But it is not as high a probability as the negatives that can and will befall Apple.

If Apple loses one patent case, there stock is predicted by market analyst far smarter than you to drop at least 50 to 100 points. As you pointed out, Apple is a 40 year old company. Apple is currently trading in the market in a parabolic fashion. This happens at the end and not the middle of a cycle. Apple can not maintain this rate of growth for much longer. Analysts conservatively predict low 700's for the remainder of this year and if all goes well maxing out in 2013 around 1000. Then the bubble will burst. It has to.

Apple is not immune to the economics that all businesses are a part of. There is nothing so special about Apple as a corporation which means they will never have this bubble burst and then settle down to a long-term steady state. Their target markets are becoming saturated. There is a great deal of competition in those market segments in spite of Apple's willingness to litigate against it. This entire market as a whole has been bolstered by cheap money in the last four years. As the rate rises, problems will occur. Apple will also need an infusion of capital to attempt to maintain this 'innovation' on a quarterly basis. Most of their cash is held overseas. It is not a matter of if but rather when Apple needs that cash brought back to America, they are going to be hit with a higher tax rate than they have in a decade.

Finally while Apple is currently the highest market cap stock in the world, it is still lower than Microsoft at their peak in 1999. And their 4.3% weighting in the S&P 500 is still significantly lower than IBM's record high of 6.4% in 1982.

Apple is the belle of the ball. The market will tire of her 'innovations' and Apple's stock will crash. The question is have they made the right choices to allow them to maintain a steady business after the high (like Microsoft and IBM) and not disappear once and for all as other have before them - Polaroid, Sun, SGI, etc. They are betting the farm on iOS and the mobile/tablet market. That is a big bet given how fads come and go.

Jobs and Apple's emotional obsession with Google/Android and their 'supposed' copying is ridiculous. Betting a company and basing your current decisions on an emotionally driven tirade and not sound business fundamentals is a sure sign that a company, no matter how popular, is destined for a very bad fall from grace.

Reply Parent Score: 5

RE[3]: Losing money?
by TM99 on Tue 11th Sep 2012 09:10 in reply to "RE[2]: Losing money? "
TM99 Member since:
2012-08-26

"Make this comparison in another 10 years. If Apple still exists by then.


You do understand AAPL could lose 50% of its value and would still be 50% more valuable than GOOG, right?
"

AAPL's current market cap is approximately 600B. GOOG's current market cap is approximately 250B. If AAPL lost 50% of its market cap it wouldn't be worth that much more in the market than GOOG.

Take a look at the historical graphs of these two corporations to see why Apple is in a 'bubble'. Google has been a publicly traded company for roughly seven years and has shown consistent and steady growth with only a single minor dip. Apple on the other hand has been a publicly traded company for 25 years and has shown only an incredibly rapid rise in value in the last three years. Historically Apple traded well below 100 and Google opened at 105. Apple didn't breach 100 until 2007 and in that same year Google was around 500.

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[4]: Losing money?
by rbenchley on Tue 11th Sep 2012 18:11 in reply to "RE[3]: Losing money? "
rbenchley Member since:
2005-11-03

"[q]Make this comparison in another 10 years. If Apple still exists by then.
You do understand AAPL could lose 50% of its value and would still be 50% more valuable than GOOG, right? " AAPL's current market cap is approximately 600B. GOOG's current market cap is approximately 250B. If AAPL lost 50% of its market cap it wouldn't be worth that much more in the market than GOOG. Take a look at the historical graphs of these two corporations to see why Apple is in a 'bubble'. Google has been a publicly traded company for roughly seven years and has shown consistent and steady growth with only a single minor dip. Apple on the other hand has been a publicly traded company for 25 years and has shown only an incredibly rapid rise in value in the last three years. Historically Apple traded well below 100 and Google opened at 105. Apple didn't breach 100 until 2007 and in that same year Google was around 500. [/q]

I'm not a very big fan of Apple these days, but it's not a bubble. The P/E is 15.61 and their earnings are $42.55 per share. If anything, the stock might be slightly undervalued. Suggesting that they will be lucky to still exist in 10 years is pure idiocy (their market cap in GDP terms would put them at 18 in the world and they have $100 billion cash on hand). All of that being said, there's plenty of room for them to fall from where they're at and I expect they will. 10 years from now they'll most likely be like Microsoft is today; a very valuable, very profitable company, but not the cool kid on the block.

Reply Parent Score: 1