Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 20th Jun 2013 18:29 UTC, submitted by MOS6510
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless So, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Microsoft was very close to take over Nokia, but that the talks eventually broke down, probably beyond repair - at least for now. The reasons the talks broke down illustrate something that I have repeatedly tried to make clear for a long time now: Nokia isn't doing well.
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Comment by Nelson
by Nelson on Thu 20th Jun 2013 23:53 UTC
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29

I don't think Nokia should sell to Microsoft, they are well on their way to a recovery.

This is completely aside from Microsoft's ulterior motive of advancing Windows Phone -- Nokia is doing a great job of conserving cash and strengthening their financial position.

None of these require necessarily a Windows Phone smash hit, just to sell enough to be a player.

Nokia has not yet issued a warning on their upcoming earnings, which indicates to me that their Lumia sales have indeed increased for Q2 at least as well as they said they would during their guidance.

If true, this is encouraging news. They need to keep it up for Q3, and they're home free into the Holiday season which will naturally lift their sales.

Basically if Nokia can go to selling 15-20 million Windows Phones a quarter by Q1, they'll be easily doing in a month what used to take them a year to pull off.

Its also not that unrealistic given the sequential growth they've shown for a few quarters.

I'm interested in seeing how Asha sales do in Q2. I want to know if they just reacted negatively to seasonality or if the sales really are having problems.

Beyond Lumia sales, their ability to divest more from NSN will be key to strengthening their cash position.

NSN has very, very nice parts of it, and other not so nice parts. Sell off the useless parts and keep the good parts and they will be golden. In fact, I expect them to do this.

All of this Nokia stuff aside, Microsoft will not launch their own phone this year. I'll go on the record predicting that this will certainly not happen.

I think HTC's One sales are softer than people think. Microsoft has an opportunity to poach HTC with enough money. If they can get solid commitments from HTC to go along side Nokia's it will benefit them both.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Comment by Nelson
by allanregistos on Fri 21st Jun 2013 04:27 in reply to "Comment by Nelson"
allanregistos Member since:
2011-02-10

I don't think Nokia should sell to Microsoft, they are well on their way to a recovery.

How do you know?

This is completely aside from Microsoft's ulterior motive of advancing Windows Phone -- Nokia is doing a great job of conserving cash and strengthening their financial position.

Are you representing Nokia's CFO?

None of these require necessarily a Windows Phone smash hit, just to sell enough to be a player.

In our country, Nokia is no longer a player but of 1% to 5% market share(My personal estimate) while 12 years ago, they owned 99% of all feature/dumb phones.

If true,

Ah, you were just speculating...

Reply Parent Score: 6

RE[2]: Comment by Nelson
by Nelson on Sun 23rd Jun 2013 12:00 in reply to "RE: Comment by Nelson"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


How do you know?


Convenient little things called financial reports where the health of the company has been steadily improving. Nokia is still in a precarious situation with regards to mind and market share, but it is no longer in danger of having the lights cut off and the doors closing.

They've executed on their Windows Phone strategy rather well, launching a line up of products in rapid succession which should help provide them with a boost ahead of the holiday season.

They've posted underlying profit for three straight quarters and are continue to scale out their Lumia volume.

If we see another 20% increase in volume in Q2, I think it will be undeniable that Nokia is on their way to a recovery.

This would prove one way or another if they are channel stuffing, which is great. If they did channel stuff their Q1 sales, they'll see a drop in Q2 sales.


Are you representing Nokia's CFO?


No, why would you get that impression? Does bringing up independently verifiable facts make me a CFO representative? I'm confused here.


In our country, Nokia is no longer a player but of 1% to 5% market share(My personal estimate) while 12 years ago, they owned 99% of all feature/dumb phones.


Your personal estimates aside, they are growing their market share in many regions of the world. Look at their gains in Italy, the UK, and Eastern Europe as proof of this.


Ah, you were just speculating...


Yes, the exact thing every body else does, or did you think I was engaging in insider trading or something of the sort? I only have the information that has been publicly disclosed and whatever other statistics and trends I can extrapolate from.

Do you have some non speculative information to share, or are you in the same boat?

Reply Parent Score: 3