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They have a foothold in cloud and some corporate Desktop. Ubuntu Server edition is a joke, I don't think they will ever make money on that. A Debian is better and more stable. They are trying to get into low cost hardware too. I think the Motorola Atrix run some kind of dumbed down proprietary Ubuntu. They totally destroyed the product, but it prove it can work on those Arm gadjets.
Why do you say this. Ubuntu server has seen very good growth and is growing more and more popular.
"Saw the writing the wall"..?
The opposite is true. Ubuntu is signing a lot of corporate clients and bringing a lot of new features and options for home user as well.