We’re all being told that “AI” is revolutionizing programming. Whether the marketing is coming from Cursor, Copilot, Claude, Google, or the countless other players in this area, it’s all emphasizing the massive productivity and speed gains programmers who use “AI” tools will achieve. The relentless marketing is clearly influencing both managers and programmers alike, with the former forcing “AI” down their subordinates’ throats, and the latter claiming to see absolutely bizarre productivity gains.
The impact of the marketing is real – people are being fired, programmers are expected to be ridiculously more productive without commensurate pay raises, and anyone questioning this new corporate gospel will probably end up on the chopping block next. It’s like the industry has become a nunnery, and all the nuns are meowing like cats.1
The reality seems to be, though, that none of these “AI” programming tools are making anyone more productive. Up until recently, Mike Judge truly believed “AI” was making him a much more productive programmer – until he ran the numbers of his own work, and realised that he was not one bit more productive at all, and his point is that if the marketing is true, and programmers are indeed becoming vastly more productive, where’s the evidence?
And yet, despite the most widespread adoption one could imagine, these tools don’t work.
My argument: If so many developers are so extraordinarily productive using these tools, where is the flood of shovelware? We should be seeing apps of all shapes and sizes, video games, new websites, mobile apps, software-as-a-service apps — we should be drowning in choice. We should be in the middle of an indie software revolution. We should be seeing 10,000 Tetris clones on Steam.
↫ Mike Judge
He proceeded to collect tons of data about new software releases on the iOS App Store, the Play Store, Steam, GitHub, and so on, as well as the number of domain registrations, and the numbers paint a very different picture from the exuberant marketing. Every single metric is flat. There’s no spike in new games, new applications, new repositories, new domain registrations. It’s all proceeding as if “AI” had had zero effect on productivity.
This whole thing is bullshit.
So if you’re a developer feeling pressured to adopt these tools — by your manager, your peers, or the general industry hysteria — trust your gut. If these tools feel clunky, if they’re slowing you down, if you’re confused how other people can be so productive, you’re not broken. The data backs up what you’re experiencing. You’re not falling behind by sticking with what you know works. If you’re feeling brave, show your manager these charts and ask them what they think about it.
If you take away anything from this it should be that (A) developers aren’t shipping anything more than they were before (that’s the only metric that matters), and (B) if someone — whether it’s your CEO, your tech lead, or some Reddit dork — claims they’re now a 10xer because of AI, that’s almost assuredly untrue, demand they show receipts or shut the fuck up.
↫ Mike Judge
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the evidence just isn’t there. The corporate world has an endless list of productivity metrics – some more reliable than others – and I have the sneaking suspicion we’re only fed marketing instead of facts because none of those metrics are showing any impact of “AI” whatsoever, because if they did, we know the “AI” pushers wouldn’t shut the fuck up about it.
Show me more than meowing nuns, and I’ll believe the hype is real.
- The story goes that in a French convent, at some point, one nun started meowing like a cat. Other nuns soon followed, until all the nuns were meowing like cats at set times during the day. The story is often used as an example of mass psychogenic illness, but the veracity of the meowing nuns is disputed. Still a great story. ↩︎
