Linked by David Adams on Thu 29th Nov 2012 20:16 UTC
Microsoft Financial analyst Charles Sizemore predicts that over time, a persistent Microsoft will come to not only thrive but dominate in the mobile computing space, because Apple has no "moats" to prevent customer attrition and its insistence at heavily controlling the ecosystem will drive customers away, while Google's offerings are too "shoddy." It's a bold prediction, but I suppose betting on Microsoft to be persistent and build on its strengths is a safe bet. But will persistence and flexibility be enough?
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Beware of the "analyst"
by porcel on Thu 29th Nov 2012 20:37 UTC
porcel
Member since:
2006-01-28

Analysts that make these kinds of predictions are a dime-a-dozen. They will push whatever agenda their paid to push.

Yeap, Microsoft is thriving on the mobile space. Please, do not make me laugh. And google´s offering are so shoddy that hardware makers cannot sell them fast enough.

Everyone I know has an android phone with an i-phone here and there added. I have not met a person that uses a windows mobile phone or tablet in the last four years.

So keep dreaming but the horse left the stable quite a while ago and nobody wants to go back to Microsoft and its proprietary crap.

Reply Score: 16

RE: Beware of the "analyst"
by kwan_e on Thu 29th Nov 2012 22:54 UTC in reply to "Beware of the "analyst""
kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

Analysts predict everything, so one of them is bound to be right.

Reply Score: 11

RE[2]: Beware of the "analyst"
by cdude on Fri 30th Nov 2012 07:19 UTC in reply to "RE: Beware of the "analyst""
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

That particular analyst referenced in the article was already proven to be wrong. WP flopped huge, Surface RT flopped (see Ballmer's statement and just yesterday Microsoft cut its manufactor order by half from 4 million to 2 million Surface RT tablets, most if not close to all there partners left and the all-in-one Nokia hope is dying).

Lets face it. The Windows monopoly is gone. Today more consumer devices running Android are sold then consumer devices running Windows. Android grows fast, Windows decreases. Customers made there choice already. The ecosystem is with Android and iOs, the customers are with Android and iOs. Most customers know Windows very well and they are not going to put it on there phones, on there tablets, on there home entertainment systems too. Today they HAVE a choice unlike it was with the desktop last decades and they MADE there choice already. Its not Microsoft.

Reply Score: 4

RE: Beware of the "analyst"
by zima on Thu 6th Dec 2012 17:56 UTC in reply to "Beware of the "analyst""
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Analysts that make these kinds of predictions are a dime-a-dozen. They will push whatever agenda their paid to push.

Though if there's a place for a third mobile ecosystem at all, it'll likely be from Microsoft...

Reply Score: 2

Zune
by Gullible Jones on Thu 29th Nov 2012 20:50 UTC
Gullible Jones
Member since:
2006-05-23

Anyone remember the Zune? Apple got there first, other vendors got there cheaper and/or better, and Microsoft got there late... Just like the last time.

I wish MS would stick with desktop stuff. They're actually good at that, and it isn't going away.

Reply Score: 5

RE: Zune
by werfu on Thu 29th Nov 2012 21:54 UTC in reply to "Zune"
werfu Member since:
2005-09-15

They can't stick to desktop as the desktop is bound to downsize in the future. The mobile and living room space will increases. For now you couldn't get productive with mobile device or consoles, but we're getting to the point that these devices become sufficient to do everyday task (for most non-IT people) ex: writing email, reading news, using IM, writing text and making presentation. Sure purist will cry fool, but look around you and see how teens use these devices. Yeah, the Post-PC era is finally on us; it simply won't be as radical that most analyst predicted years ago.

Reply Score: 4

RE[2]: Zune
by Temcat on Fri 30th Nov 2012 09:59 UTC in reply to "RE: Zune"
Temcat Member since:
2005-10-18

Microsoft should downsize sticking to the core business, that's it.

Reply Score: 1

RE[3]: Zune
by kwan_e on Fri 30th Nov 2012 17:01 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Zune"
kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

Microsoft should downsize sticking to the core business, that's it.


Some would argue that the core business of any technology company is to try different things.

There's something to be said about this fear-of-failure culture that every wannabe CEO latch on to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG9CE55wbtY

Reply Score: 4

RE[4]: Zune
by Temcat on Fri 30th Nov 2012 18:40 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Zune"
Temcat Member since:
2005-10-18

I wouldn't agree with that definition of core business. But you're of course right that a technology company should constantly try different new things.

Reply Score: 2

RE[5]: Zune
by kwan_e on Sat 1st Dec 2012 08:53 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Zune"
kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

I wouldn't agree with that definition of core business. But you're of course right that a technology company should constantly try different new things.


A technology company that does not try different new things is just a manufacturing company. The very term technology necessarily implies innovation. According to Wikipedia:

The word technology comes from Greek τεχνολογία (technología); from τέχνη (téchnē), meaning "art, skill, craft", and -λογία (-logía), meaning "study of-".

There is no study without trying new things.

Reply Score: 3

RE[6]: Zune
by Temcat on Sun 2nd Dec 2012 09:58 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Zune"
Temcat Member since:
2005-10-18

Yes, I get what you mean and agree almost with everything. Still, using the term "core business" in such a broad and non-specific sense looks strange to me.

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: Zune
by bassbeast on Sun 2nd Dec 2012 10:03 UTC in reply to "RE: Zune"
bassbeast Member since:
2007-11-11

Riiight, all they'll need is a bigger screen, more memory, a keyboard and hard drive space...why we could call it...dum dum dum...a PC!

Reality is VERY different, what is REALLY happening is PCs passed "good enough" for everything, even hardcore gaming, several releases ago, so now people aren't replacing until the previous one dies. that STILL equals hundreds of millions of PCs a year, it just means they aren't gonna sell as much as ARM because...well cell phones are disposable, as well as those cheap tablets. how many phones you have lying in a drawer somewhere? I rest my case.

Reply Score: 3

RE[3]: Zune
by 0brad0 on Mon 3rd Dec 2012 05:19 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Zune"
0brad0 Member since:
2007-05-05

well cell phones are disposable, as well as those cheap tablets. how many phones you have lying in a drawer somewhere? I rest my case.


The situation with phones is considerably worse with smartphones.

Reply Score: 2

RE[3]: Zune
by zima on Tue 4th Dec 2012 14:57 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Zune"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

You live in a quite atypical place, though... probably most people live in emerging markets, where there's still growth for PCs (for the likes of Lenovo, at least)

And phones definitely aren't disposable for the majority of ~6 billion mobile subscribers, who own their handsets upfront and are on prepaid. They also use their phones much longer than is the custom at more spoiled places.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Zune
by ml2mst on Fri 30th Nov 2012 12:52 UTC in reply to "Zune"
ml2mst Member since:
2005-08-27

I wish MS would stick with desktop stuff. They're actually good at that


They where re actually good at that, until they shove that abomination named Tiles 8® down user's throats.

Actually I wish they'd disappear in oblivion. The sooner the better and I'll be dancing on their grave :-)

Reply Score: 1

RE: Zune
by zima on Tue 4th Dec 2012 15:09 UTC in reply to "Zune"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Anyone remember the Zune? Apple got there first, other vendors got there cheaper and/or better, and Microsoft got there late... Just like the last time.
I wish MS would stick with desktop stuff. They're actually good at that, and it isn't going away.

Remember Xbox? Atari got there first ...and died (the Atari of today is just renamed Infogrames), other vendors got there cheaper and/or better, and Microsoft got there late... and now Xbox has probably the best momentum.

Microsoft does usually dominate the fields they decide to focus on. Remember - DOS, GUI, office suites, they were all new things for Microsoft at some point in time.

BTW, Apple didn't really get there first with iPod - it really took off rather late ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ipod_sales_per_quarter.svg ) and in few visible markets - when the rest of the world was starting to move to mobile already (I saw some research from 2006 or 2007, how 20% of Europe uses their mobile for music consumption ...that alone means more than all iPods ever made)

Reply Score: 2

Shoddy...
by pooo on Thu 29th Nov 2012 21:12 UTC
pooo
Member since:
2006-04-22

At this point anyone who casually dismisses the latest versions of Android as "shoddy" is put on my idiot list. It means they are a poor and compulsive thinker who does not adapt their analysis even when given new data.

Reply Score: 16

Intel
by Treza on Thu 29th Nov 2012 21:25 UTC
Treza
Member since:
2006-01-11

Yeah, and the almighty Intel will certainly crush ARM !

Nonsense.

Reply Score: 3

RE: Intel
by 0brad0 on Fri 30th Nov 2012 02:50 UTC in reply to "Intel"
0brad0 Member since:
2007-05-05

Yeah, and the almighty Intel will certainly crush ARM !

Nonsense.


In a similar manner to how Intel is slowly chipping away at AMD and NVIDIA's (mid-range) GPU market share ARM licensees and their respective CPUs will do so to Intel's x86 market share. IMO Intel has a lot more to worry about.

Reply Score: 3

przemo_li
Member since:
2010-06-01

And I have not seen MS doing better in mobile.

The key here is ECOSYSTEM.

PS If "shabbying" would bother users than Android would not had 70% of smartphones....

Reply Score: 3

Flatland_Spider Member since:
2006-09-01

If shabby software meant anything, MS would be a footnote in computer history.

Reply Score: 11

moondevil Member since:
2005-07-08

Yes.

I used to be a DR-DOS user until I had to change to MS-DOS.

Borland was my tool vendor to go for, until I had to start using Microsoft tools.

Nowadays their tools and OS are actually quite good, but boy did they suck back in the 80's and 90's.

Reply Score: 5

A converted WP8 user
by liamdawe on Thu 29th Nov 2012 21:38 UTC
liamdawe
Member since:
2006-07-04

So I am hoping this guy is semi-right as I in the last few days have been converted from Android to Windows Phone. Semi-right because Android has a place and i don't want it to go away so I have an option to switch back in the future if I need to.

I've had 4 different Android handsets all have had major problems (G1, HTC something, San Fransisco (ZTE Blade) Galaxy S2 etc) with constant crashes/freezes and a sluggish interface.

I now have a Lumia 800 and I was shocked at how fluid it all is, there are certainly things it lacks but that's mainly down to apps and how new "Windows Phone" is, the phone itself is excellent and far better quality than most Android handsets i've played with (i played with most current gen Android phones in the shop before making my decision).

This is coming from a Linux user as well so I am in no way biased (i run gamingonlinux.com FYI).

Reply Score: 5

Comment by thegman
by thegman on Thu 29th Nov 2012 22:53 UTC
thegman
Member since:
2007-01-30

The problem with the prediction is that it assumes people don't buy shoddy stuff, but they do, they do it all the time. The best selling PCs are the cheap and nasty ones, not the well-built workstations.

It also assumes that 99% of people have a problem with the locked-down ecosystem of the iPad etc. Most people don't even know it is locked down, and if they do, do they care? They didn't care that their Playstation or Xbox is more locked down.

I think the analyst is correct in is ideas, but he does not know what the ideas mean. It's willfully naive to think that crappy build quality and cheesy design will stop Android tablets selling. The low price and market saturation will ensure they sell.

Reply Score: 7

RE: Comment by thegman
by jgfenix on Fri 30th Nov 2012 07:56 UTC in reply to "Comment by thegman"
jgfenix Member since:
2006-05-25

You are right (well, I care). Not to mention that Windows Phone and WinRT are as locked-down as iOS.

Reply Score: 2

Dont even bother posting this dreck!
by jnemesh on Thu 29th Nov 2012 22:54 UTC
jnemesh
Member since:
2008-04-08

Did you happen to notice that the "analyst" has Microsoft stock? This isn't worth the electrons it's printed with!

Reply Score: 9

kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

Never trust anyone with stock. Anyone with the slightest vested interest in the stock market can never be fully trusted.

Reply Score: 4

Not an objective analysis
by benali72 on Fri 30th Nov 2012 00:04 UTC
benali72
Member since:
2008-05-03

Not an objective analysis ->

"Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long MSFT."

From a Wall Street firm, that's all you need to know.

Reply Score: 5

Comment by Stephen!
by Stephen! on Fri 30th Nov 2012 00:34 UTC
Stephen!
Member since:
2007-11-24

Google's offerings are too "shoddy


By that logic, why bother going after Android with patents? If something is really that "shoddy", it shouldn't be of any concern to Microsoft.

Reply Score: 2

1st grade logic
by Bill Shooter of Bul on Fri 30th Nov 2012 01:15 UTC
Bill Shooter of Bul
Member since:
2006-07-14

His reason for dismissing Google is that:

a) he doesn't like how google play music doesn't let him save music on his sd card.

b) Google hasn't fixed it for his phone yet

c) Google gives android away for free, therefore they don't care about its success.

Just wow.

Reply Score: 3

v RE: 1st grade logic
by bentoo on Fri 30th Nov 2012 09:41 UTC in reply to "1st grade logic"
Locked down Ecosystem?
by darknexus on Fri 30th Nov 2012 02:45 UTC
darknexus
Member since:
2008-07-15

because Apple has no "moats" to prevent customer attrition and its insistence at heavily controlling the ecosystem will drive customers away


Wait, run that by me again. We're talking about Microsoft, right? The same Microsoft that managed not only to lock down windows RT and Windows Phone just as much as, if not more than, iOS but also to try and lock down our generic white boxes as well via Secure Boot? I really can't pull this argument apart any better than by laughing as hard as I am now. Just, rofl.

Reply Score: 6

RE: Locked down Ecosystem?
by cdude on Fri 30th Nov 2012 07:27 UTC in reply to "Locked down Ecosystem?"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Yes. The same Microsoft that fights against web-standards (WebGL in IE10 anyone? ALL other browsers support WebGL). The same Microsoft that took over ISO and pushed there own standard file-formats. That's the Microsoft we are talking about.

Reply Score: 2

Comment by Luminair
by Luminair on Fri 30th Nov 2012 02:49 UTC
Luminair
Member since:
2007-03-30

this is utter bullshit. software ecosystem lock-in is the greatest moat there is. apple is the new microsoft at this

Reply Score: 6

hahaha lol lol
by Lorin on Fri 30th Nov 2012 03:29 UTC
Lorin
Member since:
2010-04-06

Thank you for that wonderful laugh!

Reply Score: 2

Huh?
by Morgan on Fri 30th Nov 2012 04:59 UTC
Morgan
Member since:
2005-06-29

Google's offerings are too "shoddy."


Are they speaking of Google labeled hardware like the Nexus series? Because if so they are a bit off base; Nexus phones and tablets aren't as whiz-bang as the newest devices out there, but they are all solidly built and reliable.

They must therefore be speaking about the Android OS, but the problem with that mindset is that you'll find the most issues with Android on devices where it is heavily modified by the carrier or manufacturer. Pure Android OS on a Nexus device is solid. I always had issues with stability on Android devices until I started using a Nexus S, for example.

Granted, Android isn't for everyone and in many ways I prefer WP7, but over two thirds of the smartphones out there run Android. That figure alone speaks for its popularity and usability.

But who knows? Stranger things have happened; maybe Microsoft will come to dominate the mobile space. Maybe Google+ will come to trump Facebook and Twitter in the social space. Maybe one day my grandchildren will walk on Mars in the space exploration, er, space.

But I'm not betting on any of it.

Reply Score: 3

RE: Huh?
by Lorin on Fri 30th Nov 2012 05:29 UTC in reply to "Huh?"
Lorin Member since:
2010-04-06

Right on Morgan, but Shillus Maximus will probably want to argue about it.

Reply Score: 3

RE[2]: Huh?
by Morgan on Fri 30th Nov 2012 05:33 UTC in reply to "RE: Huh?"
Morgan Member since:
2005-06-29

I don't think he's a shill at all. He gets passionate about the hardware and software he uses, but don't we all?

Reply Score: 4

RE[3]: Huh?
by Lorin on Fri 30th Nov 2012 06:10 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Huh?"
Lorin Member since:
2010-04-06

Maybe, myself I use pretty much all of it including Microsoft and Linux, an IPod probably doesn't count as a Apple user. Each has its effective place.

Reply Score: 2

A Prediction?!
by shinkou on Fri 30th Nov 2012 06:15 UTC
shinkou
Member since:
2011-03-24

I don't know if Microsoft will be able to crush Google and Apple in the mobile space, but the prediction doesn't look professional. It looks more like a random rant if it's anything.

Reply Score: 5

For more objective analysis, see ...
by benali72 on Fri 30th Nov 2012 07:07 UTC
benali72
Member since:
2008-05-03

For a more objective view, see CNET's article entitled "Analysts Turn Negative on Windows 8 Prospects."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57552196-75/analysts-turn-negativ...

Reply Score: 4

Rubbish article
by wonea on Fri 30th Nov 2012 09:33 UTC
wonea
Member since:
2005-10-28

On Google "I simply have no way to gauge the sustainability of their advertising model, so I find it more prudent to invest elsewhere." ? Forgetting search, how about YouTube? https://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics

Edited 2012-11-30 09:34 UTC

Reply Score: 1

My view on this...
by vasper on Fri 30th Nov 2012 11:03 UTC
vasper
Member since:
2005-07-22

Google will dominate the mobile world until the next Nokia/RIM/Google comes allong. And that in time will change too. We live in an ever changing world... 10 years from now we will laugh at predictions like this.

Edited 2012-11-30 11:03 UTC

Reply Score: 5

Here comes the MS paid shill
by silviucc on Fri 30th Nov 2012 11:40 UTC
silviucc
Member since:
2009-12-05

Say something long enough and loud enough and it becomes the truth, eh Microsoft? So nice to see that decrepit, FUD-happy old MS that I know aint dead. World would be so boring.

Just the other day, these FUDsters were complaining that webkit is becoming the new IE6. LoL. The nerve!

Reply Score: 4

RE: Here comes the MS paid shill
by zima on Thu 6th Dec 2012 18:22 UTC in reply to "Here comes the MS paid shill"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Microsoft does have a very good overall track record... (DOS, GUI, office suites, gaming consoles - all were a new thing for MS, and in all of them MS came to dominate and/or have the biggest momentum)

And about Webkit... http://blog.chromium.org/2010/03/does-your-browser-behave.html (you'd think this means that Opera was, back then, the most pleasant browser to use with Google services? ...but no, they of course worked much better in Chrome; in fact, Opera works quite badly in them)

Reply Score: 2

From the article
by nej_simon on Fri 30th Nov 2012 16:23 UTC
nej_simon
Member since:
2011-02-11

This is where I start to curse Google under my breath. Google Play is incapable of syncing music to an SD card; it can only save your music to your phone's internal memory.
[...]
You simply don't have these sorts of problems with Apple or Microsoft. Why?


Because no iOS devices and most WP devices don't support SD-cards?

Reply Score: 4

dsmogor
Member since:
2005-09-01

Google has made with Android for last 4 years.
Sure, WP might be a little more polished NOW, but assuming that actually matters, it will take years for MS to make up for market share it lost to Google.
Those years will be used by Google to make up for whatever shortcomings Android might have in consumers eyes.
Add to that MS currently doesn't have any real exclusive killer feature with WP while being:
- closed
- much less customizable
- much less flexible and OEM friendly (that translates to cost and OEM flexibility itself)
- associated with company known from its predatory practices towards partners (Google could easily blow it too, though).

MS was too attached to its monopoly benefits and throwing money at a problem practices it had in the past. Google managed bypass MS ecosystem while growing as strong financially. Buying more companies just won't cut it this time.

Besides with its current approach MS is aiming directly at Apple, not Android.

Edited 2012-11-30 17:40 UTC

Reply Score: 3

Analyst Scoring System
by tylerdurden on Fri 30th Nov 2012 21:42 UTC
tylerdurden
Member since:
2009-03-17

I am of the opinion that these "analyst" should have a score card that gets attached to their name whenever they make an announcement/study. Just like they do in professional sports with athletes' stats (at least in the US).

It should be mandatory for people who earn a living making predictions to provide some metrics that allow the reader to gauge their track records.

Reply Score: 3

RE: Analyst Scoring System
by kwan_e on Sat 1st Dec 2012 08:55 UTC in reply to "Analyst Scoring System"
kwan_e Member since:
2007-02-18

Well analysts are already a dime a dozen, but the people hiring them don't seem to care about that exchange rate.

Reply Score: 2